Qiao Xinsheng
President White Roshenko encountered trouble, and the continuous parade demonstration forced him to make concessions; but now it seems that even if he promises to re -hold elections, he may not be able to calm domestic riots.There are all signs that the Berlog Army may be mutiny.
Once Luchenko cannot control the army, the color revolution will be successful.Lukashenko has asked Moscow for help, and Russian President Putin made it clear that he was willing to help Lukashenko cross the difficulty, but it also shows that there is no plan to be in military intervention.
The reason why Putin made such a statement was that Luka Shenke continued to challenge Putin's authority.In order to maintain national independence, Beros swayed around a series of major issues.On the one hand, Luchenko hopes to alleviate the relationship with Western countries, and on the other hand, it is inseparable from Russia's resources.Lukashenko tried to control the source, but the relationship between Russia and White Ross became more and more tense.
Putin does not understand the cold of Russia and the lips of Beros. If the color revolution in Beros has a color revolution, the western region of Russia will be turbulent. It is very difficult for Russia to maintain a local stable situation.However, Russia also has its own sufferings. If they rashly intervene, they will not consolidate Lukashenko in the end, and they will fall into a greater predicament.
Russia's war in Syria has ended, but recently a Russian team was attacked by a self -made bomb in Syria, causing a major Russian general to be injured.Russia suspects that this is made by the Central Intelligence Agency and Israeli Intelligence Agency.
The enemy faced by the Syrian government comes from all aspects. The Syrian anti -government armed forces, the United States, Turkey, and Israel are all rivals of the Syrian government.Russia's choice of supporting the Syrian government means that the relationship with related countries must be dealt with.Now it seems that the relationship between Russia and the United States is unreasonable, the relationship with Israel is very subtle, the relationship with Turkey will not improve, and Russia's situation in Syria is very difficult.
Syria is an important strategic base and partner of Russia in the Middle East.Now it seems that Syria's peace process is slow. Whether the Syrian government can gain a foothold in the future election and win, it is a problem worth studying.
If the Syrian anti -government armed forces and anti -government forces unite and overthrow the Assad regime in democratic elections, Russia's military existence in Syria will become very dangerous.
The military operations adopted by the China Intelligence Bureau and the Israeli intelligence agency in Syria are actually warning Russia that if the Assad regime is continued in the Middle East, the United States may launch a color revolution in western Russia, and Russia will be in a situation in Chu.
White Ross is an important barrier in Russia.The turmoil of Beros indicates a similar situation in Russia in the future elections.On the surface, the demonstration of the White Ross's assembly parade was protested on the presidential election, but the deep problem was that after the independence of Beros, the economy did not develop steadily.
It is worth noting that strong people politics has appeared in many countries in CIS.Although some countries have overturned the long -term governance leaders through the color revolution, overall, the democratic elections of the CIS countries are almost always talked about.
The reason why this phenomenon occurs is because these countries have lost their directions and where they should go, and the entire country lacks consensus; on the other hand, under the rule of the Soviet Union, political thinking has been formed.It is believed that democratic elections are just forms, so they are not keen to replace leaders, unless the leader chooses the path of democracy.
Tomorrow's Russia?
Putin is a very typical example.After entering this century, Putin has been firmly controlled by the Russian regime, but as people know, the Russian economy is facing difficulties.Although Putin has taken a series of actions to expand its influence with military means, Russia is not as good as the past, and the people's lives have not substantially improved.For the vast majority of residents, if there is no sufficient employment position, life will not be effectively improved. Unless they face political coercion, they will definitely take measures to replace their leaders.
Today's Beros may be the Tomorrow of Russia.The troubles faced by Lukashenko are actually the dangers facing Putin.For Putin, whether to choose to support Lukashenko or allow Baillos to have a color revolution, it is a dilemma.If it supports Luchenko, Russia may be opposed by the White Ross.If you abandon Lukashenko, Western countries will launch a color revolution in the White Ross and use Beros as a source of sources to launch an attack on Russia.
The biggest problem faced by the long -term administration is the rebellion of voters.Since voters are unwilling to live under the shadow of authoritarianism, long -term governance must make choices, either a high -pressure policy or stop democratic elections.
The strategy adopted by Beros is that on the one hand, it adopts a high -pressure policy that allows the opposition to have no place to stand. On the other hand, the election is held to confirm the legitimacy of the regime through the election method.However, this is facing very big risks. If the opposition gets the support of overseas forces, the government will not give up.If the opposition mobilizes the masses and holds a huge rally, parade, and demonstration, the election will become the fuse.
Luchenko decided to hold an election to confirm the legitimacy of his governance.However, there are various problems in the election process, including the persecution of the presidential candidate of the opposition party. As a result, there was a huge political rebound in Beros.Western countries have entered the virtuality, stirring the wind, and the situation of Lukashenke is difficult.
Putin is waiting for the opportunity to intervene in solving the problem of White Ross.If Lukashenko lacks confidence, Russia may provide him with the opportunity to avoid refuge; if he has the ability to control the army, Russia may help him suppress the opposition to ensure that he continues to govern.No matter what measures are taken, Russia will pay a heavy price.
Western countries use democracy to overthrow the existing regime and have tried it repeatedly.This is because democracy is a neutral concept.The surface of democracy means that a few obey the majority of the majority, but the essence of democracy is the violent politics of the majority. If most people unite and express their political demands together, the ultimate result of democracy is that a few people's rights are completely deprived.
The history of White Ross is very complicated.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Berlos signed an agreement with Ukraine and Russia to accelerate the collapse of the Soviet Union.Because Beros must rely on Russia in the process of developing the economy, it is actually a special alliance relationship between the two countries.This alliance relationship allows Russia to take care of the interests of White Ross, and White Ross has to consider Russia's strategic needs in dealing with Russia's relations.
The mutual pull between the two countries provides room for survival and development for the opposition forces in Beros.Because Luchenko hopes to consolidate his status with the help of all aspects, so that the opposition leader has the opportunity to connect with Western forces and carry out political activities with the support of Western countries.Lukashenko ruled the country with an iron fist, and the opposition political leaders disappeared.The political high -pressure situation not only did not solve the problem, but accumulated more problems.Today, Lukashenko is like sitting on the crater, which may melt at any time.
Politics is a matter of everyone and must be discussed.Although some political leaders are very confident and try to lead the country out of poverty, as people see, due to the diversification of demands, in the process of political development, it is impossible to fully take care of the interests of each class.If in the process of democratic elections, there is no considering interests of certain classes, and dissatisfaction will inevitably produce.
Unfortunately, Lukashenko did not take care of the interests of all classes in China and tried to rely on military forces to maintain his dominant position.Facing the huge demonstration, eventually had to promise to re -hold the election.However, as long as it retreats back, the opposition will definitely be pressing step by step. This is the so -called Tocqueville tragedy.Popularly speaking, if forcibly suppression, the regime may be maintained. As long as you retreat, the opposition will see hope, and the throne of the governor will become crumbling.
Putin does not have much time to weigh the advantages and disadvantages.If you do not come forward to help Bairos suppress the opposition forces, Lukashenke is in the situationIt will be more dangerous.However, if it comes to suppress, Russia cannot find an agent in Beros, and the situation will become even more out of control.Putin waited for the strengths of White Ross to play each other in all aspects of the victory and defeat. When some political figures in the White Ross requested Russia to come forward to solve the problem, Putin made a final decision.
The author is the director of the China Human Rights Research Association
Director of the Strait Cross -Strait Research Association
Professor of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
Lukashenko ruled the country with an iron fist, and the opposition political leaders disappeared.The political high -pressure situation not only did not solve the problem, but accumulated more problems.Today, Lukashenko is like sitting on the crater, which may melt at any time.
