Rahman: If the US Democratic Party focuses on the danger of being stolen by the results of the election, it may underestimate the risk of Trump's cheating but still win. The polls will not explain everything.
There was a concern at the National Congress of the Democratic Party last week.But the Democratic Party was not concerned about the Republican Party's current President Donald Bull; Donald Trump really won the US election, but worried that Trump would steal the results of the election by destroying voting or refusing to acknowledge failure.Comedy actor Sarah Cooper summarized this mainstream view. She said: Donald Bull; Trump knows that he cannot win the election fairly.
After all, the president refused to promise that he would accept the election results.But if you focus on the danger of being stolen by the election results, the Democratic Party may underestimate a more traditional risk: Trump may win without cheating.
Indeed, polls show that the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Bull; Joe Biden is far ahead of Trump, and this situation has lasted for several months.Some people have pointed out that the polls have also predicted Hillary Bull; Hillary Clinton will win in 2016, but these people are reminded by others that Biden currently leads about 9 percentage points, far higher than Hillary's leading level.
But in history, there are also cases of candidates who have enjoyed Biden's current leading advantage, but they are eventually defeated.In 1988, the Democrat Michael Bull; Michael Dukakis led 17 percentage points ahead of the opponent after being nominated by the Party Congress. As a result, he lost in November.In addition, the election group system is conducive to the Republican Party in structure, which means that Biden may need to lead 4 percentage points in the nation's votes to ensure victory.
Obviously, the gaming market has not sold the possibility of Trump's victory.The recent odds of gambling for this president to be re -elected are between 36%and 43%.
Even some of the high -leading polls showed some details, indicating that there may be hidden support for Trump.A survey in mid -August showed that Biden led 7 percentage points.But when voters were asked who they thought neighbors would support, Trump led 5 percentage points.This may show that there is a group of shy Trump supporters who will not recognize their loyalty to polls.Another survey conducted in July this year showed that 62%of Americans agreed that today's political climate prevents me from saying what I believe.This ratio among Republicans is 77%.
In July, a poll made by Monmouth in a critical Swing State Pennsylvania showed 13 percentage points in Biden.But when the voters were asked who they thought they would win the state, they chose Trump with a weak gap of 46 to 45.And 57%of interviewees believe that secret voters will vote to Trump in their communities.
Some experienced Democratic politicians in the swing state are nervous.The female member of the Michigan Congress Debbie Dingell told the Atlantic magazine in July that a poll that showed Biden's 16 percentage polls in Michigan was simply not beyond.As Dougel pointed out, the polls of Michigan also predicted Hillary to win in 2016. As a result, Trump won with a weak advantage. It was the first time that the Republican Party won in the state since 1988.
The Parliated Female Member also pointed out that she saw that many policemen's life in her constituency was also the slogan of Blue Lives Matter mdash; mdash;EssenceShe quoted a post that was crazy on social media to summarize her concerns about the emotions of voters. This post complained: I used to think I was just an ordinary person.But I was a white man born in a two -parents family, which made me be beaten on a bunch of labels: there are privileges and racists who have to be responsible for slavery.
Even quoting such a paragraph may cause controversy in the Democratic Party circle, because some supporters may think that this is recognition and secret support for racist emotions.After the 2016 election failed, the Democratic Party's initial response was determined to solve the dilemma of the white artificial salary class.But this determination has been replaced by the anger of the president's behavior and the strong attention of racial inequality.Hillbilly Elegy on the bedside table has been replaced by white fragility.
This may provide Trump with an opportunity.His campaign strategy is to arouse the anger and resentment of white voters.He will warmly welcomes a election with race issues as the core.
Even so, Trump is still facing various huge obstacles MDASH; Mdash; many of them are caused by himself.The popularity of new coronary viruses and the high mortality rate in the United States relentlessly exposed his incompetence in management.It also highlights the importance of some favorable issues to the Democratic Party, such as medical care and paid vacation.Trump's previous abacus was caminated with a strong economy, but the new coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19, 2019) Coronatrous virus led this to the air.Trump's many former assistants condemned him, such as John Bolton, a former national security consultant John Bull.Steve Bannon, who hosted Trump's 2016 campaign; Steve Bannon was just charged with fraud.(He does not plead guilty.)
It is difficult for many Democrats to understand why someone vote for Trump, and they think it must be due to racial discrimination or mental mind.But it is how much sympathy and understanding of those who are considering voting to Trump is the biggest potential weakness of the Democratic Party.Trump's campaign team will do his best to persuade their core voters and convince them that they are still MDASH; mdash; in Hillary's words, mdash; mdash; a group of poor worms: a group of oppressed and despised.This resentment strategy has worked.It provides Trump with a chance to win again.
Translator/He Li
