Shen Jianguang: How to get the economy in the second half of the year?Does it start to warm up?Looking forward to the second half of the year, the economic rebound of investment will continue.Evidence of many parties also supports investment.
How to get the economy in the second half of the year?Does it start to warm up?
At present, the supply and marketing of excavators and heavy trucks related to construction machinery in China are booming, showing that the adjustment of the inverse cycle has been strengthened and investment has accelerated.For example, according to data from the China Automobile Association, the growth rate of heavy truck production and sales has exceeded 50%since May, and in July, it reached a high level of 70%of sales and 85%output;A rebound, the growth rate of the production activity index of Jingdong excavator in the second quarter exceeded 20%, is far better than the fell-20%decline in the most serious phase of the February epidemic, which means that investment confidence is recovered.
Behind the sales of related products related to engineering projects and the high industry demand, the investment in the economy has increased significantly.In the first half of this year, the total amount of capital formed was 1.5 percentage points of GDP, which was the main driving force for economic recovery. In contrast, consumption and net exports dragged economic growth by 2.9 and 0.2 percentage points in the first half of the year.
From the perspective of regional economic data, the investment in fixed assets in 22 provinces in the first half of this year has achieved positive growth, of which Xinjiang and Tibet have grown as high as 28.6%and 18.6%. Investment has become the core driving force for local economic growth; Shanxi, Jilin, Shanghai, etc.The land investment maintained a rapid growth rate, reaching 8.3%, 7.8%, and 6.7%, respectively, and higher than the same period in 2019.However, the growth rate of investment growth in Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Guizhou, Tianjin and other places was low, which was significantly declined from last year.
The rise in investment is related to the increase in policies under the epidemic.In the May of this year, the government work report mentioned that expanding effective investment, focusing on supporting both the two new and one -heavy construction of consumption to benefit people's livelihood and regulating structure, that is, increase the new infrastructure, new urbanization, and transportation, water conservancy, etc.Construction of major projects.At the same time, the national railway construction capital was 100 billion yuan.
In contrast, in the investment in fixed assets in July, infrastructure real estate has grown rapidly and has become an important support for domestic demand.Among them, in July, real estate investment rose to 11.7%year -on -year. The real estate construction area and new construction area continued to rise.High, and the highest growth rate at the highest investment in infrastructure in May.
However, compared with the high growth of real estate and infrastructure investment, the current manufacturing investment is still sluggish, the July growth rate is -3.1%, and it is still in the negative growth range. Most industries are subject to poor profits and their willingness to return.In this context, private investment in July was significantly weaker than state -owned controlling investment.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the economic rebound of investment will continue.In addition to the strong sales of engineering equipment such as excavators and heavy trucks mentioned above, it has a forward -looking foreshadowing that the construction will continue.
First, from the perspective of the project, the construction of two new and one new one in various places has accelerated.According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, 65 fixed asset investment projects were approved from January to July, with a total investment of 532.6 billion yuan. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities, in the first half of this year, a total of 16 railways and 33 urban rail transportation lines in the national rail transportation field this yearGet approval.
Affected by the national rainfall and flood disasters, the water conservancy infrastructure construction project will become the focus of investment in the next few months. Previously, the Ministry of Water Conservancy said#8234; 2020-2022#8236;, Five categories: water resources optimization allocation, irrigation water saving and water supply, with a total investment of 1.29 trillion.
In addition, related new infrastructure investment projects such as 5G infrastructure, data centers, artificial intelligence, and industrial Internet in various places are also accelerating deployment and construction. According to Cao Wenlian, director of the International Cooperation Center of the former National Development and Reform Commission, 5G can drive economic property this year.It is expected to reach 6.3 trillion yuan from 2025; the annual economic output of artificial intelligence is 1 trillion yuan, and the compound growth rate of more than 50%in the past eight years will reach more than 50%.
Second, from the perspective of the source of funds, special national debt superimposed on special bonds will continue to promote the promotion of infrastructure in infrastructure.According to the government work report, this year's plan to arrange special bonds of local government 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan over last year; as of July, a total of 2.47 trillion special bond issuance was issued, of which about 60 % were invested in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial industriesParks, urban and rural construction, ecological and environmental protection and other fields of major infrastructure project construction infrastructure.This year, the new anti -epidemic bonds were 100 trillion yuan, of which the 700 billion yuan borne by the local area was mainly used for infrastructure projects.In addition, considering that the proportion of local special bonds for project capital can be increased to 25%, leverage effects leveraging local investment.
The PPP project is also an important pillar of infrastructure funds.As of the end of July this year, the number of projects in the warehouse reached 1,2925, and the number of projects in the execution stage exceeded 51%.Compared with the end of last year, the implementation rate of sports, social security, medical and health, and technology -related projects has increased significantly. In July, the PPP landing rates in July were 69.4%, 54.3%, 74.5%, and 70.1%, respectively, which is significantly significantly significantly significantly higher than December last year.promote.
Third, the price of construction materials and projects has recently risen recently, reflecting the increased demand for raw materials driven by investment construction.Since June, the PPI price index has risen by 0.4%month -on -month.August high -frequency data showed that the price of cement prices as one of the basic materials of the construction industry rose.As of August 24, the reference price of cement rose rapidly to 434.6 yuan/ton, which was 5.33%compared to the price of cement at the beginning of the month.Tons and 4063 yuan/ton have risen from the end of July.In addition, the South China Industrial Product Index and the CRB spot index also rose 1.3%and 2.3%from the end of July.
In summary, in the face of the sudden impact of the epidemic, since the second quarter, all localities have actively implemented various investment measures, and related policies have continued to make effective results.The current demand for excavators, heavy trucks, and building materials is strong, showing that the investment in investment has not decreased. With the successive implementation of the previous approval projects, the gradual position of funding support, and more and more social capital are leveraged. Investment, especially infrastructure investment, investment, especially infrastructure investmentIt is expected to maintain a good situation.
In the second half of the year, the effective investment expansion of the construction of major projects such as new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects such as transportation and water conservancy is expected to accelerate the demand for investment and consumption and support the recovery of the Chinese economy.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
