Author: Xue Ziyao
Source: Hong Kong 01
The concept of decoupling was popular at the beginning of the Sino -US trade war. Later, after ZTE, Huawei, and the current Tencent and byte beating, this concept was used in science and technology competition.
In the field of science and technology, the same concept is how tight the connection between the United States and Chinese companies is, how painful the decoupling is to these two economically dependent economies.
Therefore, decouragement is not to describe an irresistible historical trend, but to describe an unknown situation: what will happen if the tension hinders the cooperation of Chinese and American companies?More specifically, what will happen if the current Huawei ban has evolved into a ban on all Chinese technology companies?
This will definitely be a bad news for China.Last Monday, when the US Department of Commerce banned Huawei affiliated companies from buying American products, many critics thought it was the death penalty to Huawei.
This is because the Huawei ban in the United States will have a serious chain reaction. Some key high -tech components can only be purchased from the United States: No other countries have the intellectual property and technology of micro -chip required to design new generations of mobile phones or computers.EssenceMicro -chip production includes four main stages: design, manufacturing, assembly and testing.American companies have many years of leading advantages in the first stage, and have other basic key technologies related to the production process of the entire chip.
In other words, the United States has the ability to cut off companies in China or any other country from the global micro -chip supply chain.
In the short term, this means that Chinese companies cannot make a reproductive product that requires advanced chips.China and the world will be deprived of all flagship products from large technology companies such as Xiaomi, OPPO, Lenovo and other large technology companies, and will also be deprived of any other products that need new generations of chips, including 5G hardware.
China will have no choice, and can only turn to micro -chips that are less advanced, such as cooperation with non -American companies with chip development expertise in Asia or Europe.In addition, China can also try to catch up with the United States by investing in its own chip design company.
Both of these schemes will cost huge, and it takes several years; not only to improve local technology, but also redesign the supply chain from chip design to manufacturing.However, over time, the alternative supply chain of Asia will occur, leading to the division of the production process.
However, the separation of the supply chain is not necessarily the division of the technology system.
Conversely, the development of the micro -chip industry's replacement supply chain helps to make the global trade and technology markets more stable.The supply chain of excessive dependence on key nodes is more likely to have monopoly behaviors. During the crisis, whether it is a political crisis or a natural crisis, it is easier to be interrupted.
During the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, many countries realized that they rely on China's personal protective supplies supply chain. Once China has a epidemic, these supply chains are likely to stop operation.In the same way, an earthquake in California today, and the ability of American companies to provide chip design to global companies may suddenly interrupt.
On the contrary, if a cutting -edge chip design company appears in Asia, it will diversify the global supply chain and consolidate the world's micro -chip market, making it more competitive and resistant to crisis.
Just like the two major passenger aircraft manufacturers in the world, Airbus and Boeing, it may be a good thing to have two independent but parallel micro -chip production chains.
In other words, the decoupling of China and the United States may actually lead to more globalization, not less.The diversified chip market will reduce the possibility of geopolitical competition that affects economic cooperation, because in this case, a government has no power to implement a ban or death penalty to foreign companies.
The technological advancement of the United States is not static. The more the US government threatens to use the advanced technology to punish or exclude competitors, it will become more motivated to overcome its technical advanced.
For this reason, the decoupling plan of the United States and China is easy to be counterproductive, and it may temporarily delay the rise of China, but at the same time, it will encourage other countries to develop its own solution that does not rely on the United States.(Similar arguments can also be said in turn: if China decides to decide with the United States, it will lead to the development of international manufacturing supply chains outside China, thereby weakening China's core economic advantages.)
From this perspective, it is likely that the tough discussion of hard decoupling will only cause soft decourse, that is, the diversification of the technical system, making the global supply chain structure more strong and flexible, which is not easy to be affected by the situation of geopolitical tensions.
