Author: Shi Qiping
Source: Zhongshi Electronics News
The current Sino -US relations and the form of Taiwan Straits are unprecedented. It is the only one in China and the United States for the only time in China and the United States. All parties have been concerned about: How does Sino -US relations go on?Will the two sides start a serious conflict?And, if the conflict, how will the Chinese, the United States and the global situation change?
The essence of the contradiction between China and the United States is the contradiction between the boss and the second child of the Xunxidd trap. It must be seen that this trap that exists between China and the United States is more than one, and it is plural.Global governance has undergone pressure on the United States; 2. As the second child, the speed of catching up with the boss is beyond imagination.
This situation is reminiscent of the statistical study of Allison (the earliest Harvard Professor Harvard) for the history of the second and elders in the past 500 years. In 500, there were 16 contradictions between the second and secondary seconds.75%and 25%.So, what will the 17th pair of fate, 75%or 25%?
The example of the outbreak of volcanoes is a metaphor, and the current situation seems not optimistic.The reason why the volcano has burst is the long time of energy, and it is so big that it has finally had to be concurrent.In contrast to the situation of Sino -US relations and the Taiwan Strait, first look at the United States. One of the keys to the United States for 100 years in the world is that one of the key is to fight all the second or third -thirds of his challenges, such as Britain, Germany, Japan, and Russia. Nowadays,In the face of China, although it is difficult to fight, it must fight China to death.There is no choice for the United States, because it does not fight China, the United States is no longer hegemonic.However, from Obama to Trump, all the means, the maximum fur is hurting China, and the only one can hurt the two methods of Chinese bones and vitality.Don't dare to act, the remaining choices are only Taiwanese cards.To play the Taiwan card, the means are constantly cutting China's sovereignty, and it is finally unable to hold back to China. The outbreak of local military conflicts will eventually impact or fight against China's stability and development.
Look at mainland China.First of all, there are three motivations for the mainland to solve the Taiwan issue: first, the territorial and sovereignty are complete, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will be achieved.The conditions are already available;
Look at Taiwan again.The reason why Taiwan's ruling authorities have a clear position in the United States and anti -resistance are not ruled out that it is a strategic estimate. It has gradually realized Taiwan's true independence by taking the opportunity of the Central and American century fighting.
It should be said that for the showdown time to welcome the Taiwan Strait, China, the United States and Taiwan have continued to accumulate great energy.Of course, like a volcano, although you can judge the upcoming outbreak, there is no way to guess the specific moment.
Is it possible for Sino -US relations to unexpectedly not to move towards 75%, but the probability of 25%?There are too!The main key is to the United States. If the US strategy and military sector scientific evaluation of the Chinese and American military strength in the Western Pacific military strength, the US has a small chance of winning, and it is possible to give up military conflicts and choose to cooperate or exchange with China.But no matter how you choose, in this area or larger, time may no longer be in the United States.
