Author: Watanabe Naoshu, Long Yuan Xiuming
Source: Nikkei Chinese Network
Japan's parts industry supports 1.4 billion smartphone production an annual output of 1.4 billion units.Mobile phone manufacturers and suppliers in the United States and suppliers start psychological warfare around orders every year.Each component manufacturer has been improving immunity and reducing risk of production sharpness.Nowadays, variables such as the new crown epidemic and Sino -US technology friction have also appeared, and the psychological warfare of mobile phone manufacturers and component manufacturers is becoming more intense.The Japanese Economic News will review the interview content of the main component supplier executives without the name of the name of the name, and look back at the mutual game that lasted half a year.Earlier, Nikkei Chinese website published a game psychological war between Japanese component manufacturers and Huawei: Japanese component manufacturers watch Huawei like this, this game with Apple, the United States.
In 2020, it will ensure that the components used in 200 million iPhone
In April of the new crown epidemic, Apple informed the supplier that the iPhone output estimation was estimated in 2020.Although it has been reduced by about 10 % compared to the previous plans, it is still optimistic compared to competitors such as China.Apple said that if the order of supplement from January to March 2021, the production plan in 2020 will reach more than 210 million units.This data is 4 % higher than the level of 2019.
Apple has unique business habits.Before issuing a formal component order, it will regularly inform the suppliers that the output estimation of the forecast (Forecast) will be adjusted frequently.The predictions of new models listed in the fall of previous years are usually converted into formal orders around May to June.
A number of suppliers said that Apple did not assume the responsibility of receiving components during the prediction stage.After the supplier is carried out, the official order will decline, and the factory operating rate will decline, which will have a negative impact on performance.This apple impact has occurred many times, which has troubled suppliers for a long time.
To ensure the production system based on the prediction of not receiving responsibility, Apple is convenient for the flexible sales strategy while avoiding the lack of iPhone.And suppliers are easy to get an order of apples with overwhelming purchasing power, but on the other hand, if the sales are sluggish, they must unilaterally carry the risk of inventory.
Suppliers have always tasted bitterness due to Apple's repeated impermanence.In 2018, Apple's iPhone X sales of the OLED screen for the first time made the downturn, which made Samsung Electronics, which was supplied to it.Although Apple soon launched the iPhone XR of the LCD screen in the fall of that year, sales were lower than expected, resulting in the performance of suppliers Japanese display (JDI) and South Korean LG display.
It feels a bit optimistic and obviously tends to ensure inventory
In early April of the outbreak of factory suspension of factories such as Wuhan and other places, senior executives of a component company calmly analyzed Apple's predictions.From February to March, electronic product foundry such as Hon Hai Precision Industry, such as Hon Hai Precision Industry, is difficult to ensure people's hands after the Spring Festival.Large smartphone manufacturers cannot continue to produce production as planned.
China's printed substrates and Southeast Asia's main components such as smartphones such as electronic components are also in dangerous states such as partial stop work, but Apple still maintains optimistic predictions.
Consider 80 % of it
For the prediction of Apple, which is still optimistic in the epidemic, suppliers worry that Apple will change their ideas.Suppliers have adopted a strategy to reduce fluctuations, including the update period required to shorten Apple to shorten the forecast to closer to actual needs.Faced with this repeated risk of apple prediction, suppliers were immune.
Never encountered a plan that was so uncertain
In mid -May, a supplier's executive was confused.2020 is the year of 5G launched in the world that Apple will launch a new iPhone in autumn.In the early summer, the plan was determined in early summer and the production was started, but this year can only start production parts based on midway forecasts.
iPhone's production is sometimes compared with agriculture.For new products launched in autumn, production has been quickly produced from summer to the end of the year, and sometimes the factory becomes empty after the New Year comes.The output will change according to the new sales situation, which is characterized by production concentration in a period.
The shipment of the new iPhone is expected to postpone 4 to 5 weeks
Another factors that lead to the unpredictable demand for iPhone parts are the delay of development of the new iPhone.The reason is considered to be the development of 5G components for newly supported. It is reported that Apple told a supplier in the spring that it was delayed for about 1 month.Apple's chief financial officer (CFO) Luca Middot; Luca Maestri also predicted at a conference call on July 30 that the listing of new models will be postponed for several weeks in 2020.
In the case of adjusting predictions more frequently than in previous years, as of now, the annual production scale, including old models, seems to be determined to be about 200 million units as forecasts for April.Apple has not yet changed optimistic expectations.
According to statistics from the US survey company's IDC, the iPhone shipments from April to June increased by 11 % year -on -year, which is the only company in the top 5 major smartphone manufacturers.Apple's CEO (CEO) Tim Middot; Cook also said at a conference call on July 30 that the demand from May to June exceeded expectations.This means that the apple shock of the supplier is temporarily avoided.
The production plan in 2020 is temporarily determined, and at the same time, the offensive and defensive warfare in 2021 has also started.
The new iPhone in the fall of 2020 will be the first time that OLED will be adopted on all models, and Korean companies as suppliers may benefit.However, due to the strong sales of cheap LCD models, the views of launching LCD models from 2021 ~ 2022 are being strengthened.
In the field of iPhone's assembly, the foundry company in mainland China, Lixun Precision Industry, will acquire a mainland factory of Taiwan Weisong Zitong, Taiwan.Earlier, iPhone's assembly has been monopolized by Taiwan's foundry companies, but suppliers' executives said that Apple hopes to establish a supply chain in the mainland, which has played a role.
The sales of iPhone are about 200 million units per year, and they are increasingly touched. In this context, the comparison of strength also shows signs of changes.It is reported that Samsung, which supplies most of the OLED screen, has not reached a certain level, from April to June, it charged Apple about 100 billion yen in liquidated damages.Some analysts believe that Apple will comprehensively promote the purchase of OLED screens from LG displays in the future to promote the decentralization of suppliers.
In order to make the new products concentrated in autumn uniformly, the use of old parts to produce products in spring
Apple is not a whip, and also prepared sugar for the supplier.The cheap version of the iPhone SE released in April is contributing to the stable performance of various suppliers.There is also a trend of dispersing orders to offset the seasonal fluctuations in iPhone.
In order to avoid the risks such as tariffs, it may increase the assembly of India
In addition to the mainland of China so far, Apple is considered to increase iPhone production in India.Reuters and others reported that the Indian government said in response to the country's smartphone production preferential policies that the main suppliers of Apple, such as Hon Hai Precision Industry, have applied for.
Some analysts believe that Apple first positioned India as assembly bases for parts and components exported from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, but some supplier executives said that in the future, component manufacturers may gradually be attracted to India.
The iPhone has been on the market for 13 years. Apple itself has also faced various risks such as the breakdown of the supply chain caused by the epidemic, the rest of the stores caused by the city, and the Sino -US trade war.Under the new normal of the ideal model of consumption and production, the increasingly mature iPhone economic circle is also going towards a turning point.
