Sing Tao Daily
The US presidential election has entered a straight path, and the Democratic Party Congress confirmed that Biden was a candidate to challenge Trump, who seemed to be re -elected.Biden spoke at the Party Congress. Although it was not particularly targeted at China, Trump continued to provoke, saying that he was elected to make China own the United States.Even if Bayeng was elected, Sino -US relations still could not significantly improve in the short term.
Because Trump will also attack China in the next two and a half months, Bayeng is expected to fight him.Although Biden does not agree with the launch of a trade war on China, it will still vigorously curb China in economics, especially suppressing its online enterprises, and will change the situation of Trump and allies and uncomfortable.In addition, the Democratic Party's new policy deleted a statement of China policy, but joined the right to support the Hong Kong people's lords, showing that Biden will adopt a high posture on the issue of Taiwan and Hong Kong.
As China ’s total economic and technology, the pace of overtaking the United States is becoming more and more obvious. Whoever becomes a US president will curb it, but it is just like Trump.
As for whether Biden can win the election, the focus is on the two major factors. One is that it is not good for him, that is, Trump's eye -catching ability is much stronger than him, and the other is his mailing votes.
The narrowing variables of polls are still more
Biden's biggest weakness is that it is not enough attack, and the election rhythm and topic are fucking in Trump's hands.
He has selected He Jinli, vice presidential partner in the past two weeks, and nominated by the Democratic Party Congress.Generally speaking, this candidate's popularity has a great excitement, but Bayeng's recent polls are only steady and slightly rising.Choosing a campaign partner with He Jinli has a strong complementary effect on him, because his supporters are mainly from the elders, white, men, He Jinli's women, African and Indian descent backgrounds, can attract women, ethnic minorities and young people.People just make up for Biden's shortcomings.
The Democratic Party also showed Biden's unity.Former Democratic President Barack Obama, Clinton and Carter all came forward to support him, and many well -known Republican figures, such as former Secretary of State Powell and Ohio Governor Cassic, all settled on the Democratic Party conference to highlight Bayon's cross -party support.And the Republican party -made party Trump's dissatisfaction.
However, Biden's polls failed to rise again due to the deputy and the party conference nomination, the main reason was two.First, his support is above 51%, more than half of it. The two parties of democracy are similar among voters. Therefore, it is very difficult for Bayeng people to rise again. Unless he is excellent, his opponent fails.The second is that Biden's charm is not outstanding enough. A number of polls show that nearly 60 % of voters choose Biden. The main reason is that they are dissatisfied with Trump and are not attracted by Biden.
Bayon's lack of attacking supporters, letting the election rhythm is led by Trump. The focus of voters was placed on Trump. He was the biggest variable that Biden could win.Trump has proven in the last presidential election that its strength is that it has done everything to create issues and snatch the eyeballs, so that voters only know that he has him and ignores other candidates.Winning elections.In the past a month and a month, Trump continued to attack China to hunt witch hunting in the Chinese embassy, enterprises, and organizations in the United States, and discredited domestic left -wing demonstrators to combat the image of the Democratic Party and strengthen its own hard image to maintain the law and order.These actions caused his support, which narrowed from backward Biden 9.5 percentage points to 8.5.
Mailing votes to push the voting rate
In the next two and a half months, Trump will inevitably increase the discredit means to attack Biden, and will also use the president's advantage to have the advantage of the president to the key voters' policy dividends.Exposure, the closer to the voting day, the difference between the support of the two will be greatly narrowed.
As for another important variable, it is mailing votes.Trump's constant call for mailing votes was not good for him because of help.The eagerness of Biden supporters is far from Trump's fans. They may not be willing to vote on voting every day, and their voting rate will be lower than Trump supporters;In the descendants, the support is greatly better than Trump, but the voting rate of minority ethnic groups is about 10 % of the low -white voters, which has greatly reduced the advantage of Biden.However, mailing votes can make voters voting very hard and will help the voting rate of Gao Bayeng supporters.
Of course, Trump violently attacked mailing votes to breed fraud, and there was another reason for the buried line. Once he was defeated, he could refuse to recognize the results on the grounds of this.
Although the U.S. presidential election, although Biden is obviously leading, whether it can maintain its advantage to the voting day, I am afraid he has countless hearts, and Trump has always been a master who provokes the emotions of the masses.The chance of victory should not be overdamed.
