John Middot; Andrews
Poor Lebanon (Haram Lubnan), as if more than 1 million refugees, economic freedom falls caused by the neighboring Syrian war, and the 2019 coronary virus crown disease is not terrible enough.As a result, more than 170 people died, more than 6,000 were injured, and about 300,000 people were homeless, accounting for 5%of the country's total population.For a country that once regarded the capital of the country as Paris in Paris in the Middle East, how can we draw an end to this tragic story?
Sadly, the image of Oriental Paris has long been disappearing, and it is the civil war, corruption and regional turmoil from 1975 to 1990.The unlucky government announced that it entered an emergency after the Hong Kong explosion, but the result was forced to face the shouting Al-Shab Yurid ISQAT Al-Nizam, that is, the public asked to overthrow the present government demonstrator.This revolutionary slogan ignited the Spring of Arabia nearly 10 years ago.
Although the government has resigned, the people's anger is destined to continue to expand: On August 18, the Hague Lebanon Special Court will make a decision on the case of Rafic Hariri, the Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik; Rafic Hariri.The four members of the Shiites militia and the political parties supported by Iran and Syria have accepted the absence of trial due to the bombing of the Harry team.The result was originally announced on August 7, but was postponed due to the respect of countless victims of the devastating Big Bang of Beirut three days ago.
Regardless of the special court's decision, it will exacerbate political tensions.The Allah, which has been listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has been widely supported by Shiites.The Military Military soldiers are stronger than the Lebanon government forces, and they also have strong group support in the parliament.
Just like the existence of the Palestinian guerrillas and the claims it established in the country, it is an important factor in provoking the civil war.Non -actual achievements to allocate politics and economic power systems.
However, is this the flag that waves the banner to call on the what the people really want?In a century ago, the Sykesndash Treaty (Picot Accord), which was signed by Britain and France, was independent from the Middle East, and gradually became a mixture of Christians, Muslims, Druz, and other groups (About 18 schools were formally recognized).In 1943, when France ended its international alliance mission, independent Lebanon's political leaders announced an unwritten national treaty.According to the treaty, the Christian Christians will be the president, the Sunni Muslims as the prime minister, and the Shiites Muslims will serve as Parliament Speaker.
As Lebanese's first Prime Minister Riade Middot; Riad Al-Solh said, the purpose of this is to do this in Lebanon Muslims and Arabia Christians.Christians should keep a distance from the West, while Muslims have to give up Lebanon as part of the Arab nation as a whole.
The initial premise of all this is that Christians and Muslims have a rough number.However, the last census of Lebanese was conducted in 1932, and it is obvious that Christians have become a minority since then in the decades since then.Because the birth rate is low and the immigration tendency is high (thousands of people fled their homes during the civil war), Christians now only account for one -third of the total population of Lebanon.
However, if the result may cause another denomination war, why should the system adjust the system to reflect the reality of the population?The Taif Agreement, which ended the 15 -year civil war, only repaired on marginal issues, giving Muslims and Christian parliament equality, and enhanced the power of the Prime Minister.
Lebanon demonstrators have long demanded to end sectarian power sharing, and at the same time end a series of foreign forces intervene in Lebanon affairs, including forces from the United States, Israel to Syria and Iran.One of them succeeded was that the domestic and international protest caused by Harry's stabbing forced Syria to withdraw from its troops in 2005.Syria's protection of Lebanon was 29 years at the time.
The contradiction is that the system condemned by the demonstrators gave them a certain degree of freedom of personal and speech, which is extremely rare in the Arab world.In addition, when the job depends on Ren people, the end of this system may harm personal interests.A trial conducted by a think tank in Lebanese showed that 70%of the respondents agreed to sign a petition to call for the end of the system; but when the participants were told that their names would be made public, the number dropped to 50%Essence
Lebanon has always been a fragile country.In the 1970s, when I lived in Beirut, the city was indeed internationally international in Paris in the Middle East. Until the civil war, it was split into a fully armed community with the encouragement of external forces.This situation leads to the religious beliefs listed on a person's ID card, which can determine its life and death.
In view of the savvy and sophisticated and entrepreneurial spirit of the Lebanese people, people can imagine that ending the sectarian system can turn weaknesses into strength.But I doubt this.
In other Arab countries, a minority religious group relies on dictators to protect them, and like Iraq and Syria, once the country is threatened, it means that their suffering is the beginning.Are those Malones who consider themselves to be Phoenicians and not Arabs, will they be willing to accept the majority of Lebanon Muslims?Whether Shiites will accept Leb Jrimony as an overlord, the latter is now supported by the Syrian Yonici refugees.
The real problem is to strengthen the accountability system.Sadly, the warlords in the 1970s and 1980s did not become politicians, but instead of becoming a black hand of ransomware. For example, power outages allowed diesel generator suppliers to easily earn a lot of banknotes.It is shameful that selfish bankers and officials are unwilling to ensure the implementation of emergency economic and financial reforms, which has led to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to fall into a deadlock.
The Lebanese people should live a better life.How they will achieve this goal is a suspended question. After the Brurt disaster, answering this question will be more difficult than ever.
Author John Andrews is an editor -in -chief and reporter from the Economist Magazine. He is the world in conflict: understanding the world turbulent region (The World in Conflict: UndersTnding The Worlds TroubleSpots).
English Title: Can Lebanon Rise from the Rubble?
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020
