Lin Yifu: China achieved 3%growth is more suitable for staying space next year

Lin Yifu, the dean of the Chinese Academy of Economics, believes that this year to make full use of the policy space. If the growth rate of 5.3%is achieved, the two goals are expected to achieve.He believes that China will still have 8%of growth potential in the future.

According to the Beijing News, Lin Yifu published a report on the double background of China's economic development entitled by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and Sino -US friction on the 19th.

He wrote that in the process of reform and opening up in the past 41 years, China has maintained an average growth rate of 9.4%per year, and there will still be about 8%of the growth potential in the future.Compared with the East Asian economies that have developed well after World War II, such as Japan, when these economies are in the current stage of China's development, they can then maintain a growth of 8%to 10%, so China may also maintain this growth rate.

2020 is the year of the ending of the well -off society in China, and it is also the first year of winning the target of the century.Two important quantitative indicators are two times, that is, the total domestic product and the per capita income of urban and rural residents turned over in 2010.To achieve two multiplied goals, the Chinese economy needs to maintain a growth rate of 7.2%per year.

Lin Yifu analyzed that China's GDP declined by 6.8%in the first quarter of this year, and it resumed positive growth in the second quarter. The overall growth rate in the first half of the year was 1.6%.Whether this year can achieve the first century goal, mainly relying on the second half of the year, it will reach 5.3%throughout the year, and the second half of the year must increase by 12.2%. This is not impossible.However, it is possible to achieve a goal and whether to use all the policy space to use two different things.

Lin Yifu pointed out that China has achieved a growth of about 3%this year, leaving a certain space for next year. Such arrangements are more reasonable.The annual growth rate of 3%, the growth rate in the second half of the year only needs to reach 7.6%.

However, if the annual growth rate of this year is less than 5.3%, it is difficult to achieve two double -increase targets.Lin Yifu believes that if a 3%growth is achieved this year, it will maintain a 3%growth next year. By 2021, two multiplication targets can be achieved, which can still meet the first century -old goal.