Qi Dongtao
In the Taiwan and the South China Sea issue, China and the United States have long adhered to the strategy of clear bottom lines and blurred goals.The clear bottom line made both parties dare not easily challenge each other's bottom line, which limits the unlimited upgrade of the contradictions between the two parties into a force conflict; the target blur has created a lot of manipulation space for both parties, especially for the party who is temporarily at a strategic disadvantage.In the case of the opponent's bottom line, the use of various policies to gradually increase its strategic capital. It is expected that when you have an overwhelming strategic advantage, you can change the bottom line and force the other party to accept the new bottom line.
It is worth noting that as a large country that has been rising after a long period of internal turmoil, whether in Taiwan or the South China Sea issue, China has been in very serious strategic disadvantages for a long time. Therefore, the bottom line is clear.It is important.
In foreign relations, especially in the United States, Deng Xiaoping has used a more obscure tight light to express the concept of the goal to blur this concept. The meaning is also to accumulate strategic capital with a stable development environment with fuzzy goals.EssenceHowever, the development of Taiwan and the South China Sea in the past ten years has witnessed that China and the United States have gradually clarified the strategic goals, which has led to their respective bottom lines. Finally, the deep contradictions that have been covered up by both parties have been disclosed, which has deepened the between China and the United States.Strategic confrontation.
China and the United States accused each other of being responsible for the upgrading of contradictions and conflicts. They all said that they were forced to resist in response to the threat of the other party.In other words, the United States believes that China's strategic goal of challenging the US hegemony is getting clearer, and China also believes that the United States' strategic goals to curb China's strategic goals are getting clearer, so both parties are forced to increase the level of conflict.Strategic confrontation compromise.The issue of Taiwan and the South China Sea is a window for observing the vicious recycling strategic confrontation between China and the United States, and it is also a dangerous issue that may introduce the two countries into the slugeal trap.
Mainland's strategic upgrade of Taiwan
On the Taiwan issue, the bottom line of the mainland's anti -independence is very clear, and even the use of anti -split national laws clearly stipulate that the mainland will combat three Taiwan independence situations in non -peaceful methods and other necessary measures.But for a long time, the mainland's promoting goals have been blurred.This is not to say that the mainland does not have the goal of unifying Taiwan, but when it is said when it is unified and how to unify the question for a long time, there is no clear answer.The mainland has always advocated unification in a peaceful way, and only unified in non -peaceful ways in unity of peace.
However, if there is no clear unified timetable, as long as Taiwan does not take the initiative to be independent, the mainland has to try to promote unification in peaceful ways. The final result is likely to have peace and no unity.Everyone understands that mainland leaders have adopted a goal fuzzy strategy for a long time because it is conducive to the higher strategic goal of the mainland's economic development, and the military strength of the mainland can successfully martial arts in Taiwan when it has been involved in the United States for a long time.
The fuzzy unified goal provides the time and opportunities of important strategic capital such as economic and military capital for the mainland. Taiwan's funds and talents use the opportunities provided by the mainland to actively participate in the early reform and opening up of the mainland. At the same time, it has reduced Taiwan and the United States to Taiwan and the United States.Stress, as long as the Taiwan authorities do not have serious Taiwan independence acts, there is nothing to do between China and the United States.
With the rapid rise of the mainland's economy and military strength, Taiwan's economic value of the mainland has dropped rapidly, but its significance for the strategic goal of the new era of mainland nation rejuvenation is greater and greater, because unified Taiwan is the deserved meaning of national rejuvenation.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the mainland has significantly strengthened the pace of promotion, and repeatedly emphasized that unification cannot be dragged down from generation to generation. In 2049, it became the most late period for unified Taiwan; many signs showed that the current leaders did not want to drag unification so late.Therefore, the unified goal is becoming clearer.
However, with Tsai Ing -wen in 2016, cross -strait relations changed from cooperation to confrontation, and the mainland promoted strong resistance to Taiwan.In 2018, the Kuomintang political new star South Korea Yu was unexpectedly elected as the mayor of Kaohsiung, and set off a Korean stream that favored the mainland in Taiwan.The mainland leaders seized the opportunity and delivered an important speech in Taiwan in January 2019. I hope that Taiwan will accept the ninety -two consensus that has been re -interpreted, promoting the mainland, and proposed the two systems of Taiwan as a governance model of Taiwan after the unity.The unified goal is further clarified.
Unexpectedly, in June 2019, the outbreak of the outbreak of Hong Kong has been in the fierce social resistance for half a year. The DPP took advantage of this opportunity to successfully launch anti -China mood in Taiwan and eventually defeated Han Liu.Subsequently, the cross -strait and even the world entered the crown disease, the US -Taiwan relations further improved, and the relationship with the mainland became more deteriorated.To put it simply, the unified goal of the mainland has gradually become clear, and the efforts to promote unification have gradually increased. However, since Tsai Ing -wen and Trump came to power in 2016, they encountered great difficulties in promoting unifications. The progress was very limited.
US strategic upgrade of Taiwan
The bottom line of the United States on the Taiwan issue has also been clear for a long time: the mainland and Taiwan need to solve the Taiwan issue through peaceful negotiations, oppose any party to initiate or cause martial arts conflict, that is, on the one hand, it opposes the initiative of the mainland, and on the other hand, it also opposes Taiwan's independence.Because that will lead to the mainland's martial arts.This bottom line of peace, no war, has long been in line with the expectations of the mainland and Taiwan for a long time, becoming an important foundation for the three sides of China, the United States and Taiwan.
However, in some key goals in Taiwan, the United States has always held a vague position.First of all, the United States does not explicitly accept the mainland that the mainland believes that the most basic and fundamental China principle. Instead, it proposes a very vague China policy and Taiwan relations law based on the three joint communiqués of China and the United States and the Taiwan Relations Law approved by the Congress of Congress in Taiwan.A Chinese principle in Beijing is different.
The core of a Chinese policy is to obscure whether Taiwan and the mainland are now and in the future. It does not clearly acknowledge that the two sides of the strait belong to one China, which essentially adheres to Taiwan's status.Treatment does not think that unity is the only option on the two sides of the strait; the future of US -Taiwan relations is also blurred. Although it will not establish formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, it still retains huge fuzzy space.There is a substantial relationship.
Secondly, in order to scare the mainland martial arts, at the same time, it does not encourage Taiwan to independence. In terms of whether the United States will send troops to prevent mainland martial arts, it has always held a fuzzy position so that the mainland will feel that the United States will send troops to interfere with martial arts, and it will make Taiwan feel that if it is itself it is itselfThe United States does not necessarily send troops to help themselves.
In the end, the United States has a lot of differences between Taiwan independence and China. In fact, it is blurred to define the definition of Taiwan independence.Therefore, when China punish Taiwan independence in the eyes of its eyes, the United States often accuses Chinese conflicts in manufacturing Taiwan Straits, thinking that those Taiwan independence behavior belongs to Taiwan's legitimate rights.
On the one hand, the United States uses a clear bottom line to promote the peace of Taiwan, and on the other hand, it also uses various vague positions to create a large amount of space to flexibly handle the relationship with Taiwan.When China and the United States take cooperation as the main and competition, the United States will not use these vague spaces to vigorously develop relations with Taiwan to challenge China., And not investing too much energy.
During the Chen Shuibian period, cross -strait relations were turbulent due to its radical Taiwan independence policy, which may affect the United States. After the 911 terrorist attacks, the United States took global counter -terrorism as a priority and needed China to cooperate., Even in cooperation with China to control A -Bian, the relationship between the United States and Taiwan has become more alienated.During the Ma Ying -jeou period, he started the official cooperation with the mainland because of accepting the 1992 consensus. He was in line with the US position because he pursued the unification, uniqueness, or martial arts.
However, as Tsai Ing -wen and Trump came to power in 2016, Taiwan refused to accept the 1992 consensus, and the U.S. politicians set off a wave of consistent anti -China.The strategic value has greatly improved, and the United States has begun to use its various vague stances to vigorously develop its relationship with Taiwan: Through a series ofThe Taiwan Act, support Taiwan to participate in international affairs, strengthen various mutual visits, exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan, regarding Taiwan as an important strategic partner in the Indo -Pacific Strategy of China, upgraded the weapon sales of weapons, and strives to be routine.In the Taiwan Strait, the United States and Taiwan relations rose to the best period after the broken diplomatic relations.
On the other hand, the United States has accused Beijing of being responsible for the tightness of the Taiwan Strait, and publicly stated that a Chinese policy in the United States is different from a Chinese principle that China is different from China. Sino -US relations have entered the most difficult period since the establishment of diplomatic relations.In the face of the United States and Taiwan, although Beijing has routine countermeasures, it is basically impossible to affect the further development of US -Taiwan relations, and promoting work is even more difficult.
The author is a researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore
The article only represents personal point of view
In order to scare the mainland martial arts and do not encourage Taiwan's independence at the same time, whether the United States will send troops to prevent the unification of martial arts, the United States has always held a fuzzy position so that the mainland feels that the United States will send troops to intervene in martial arts.Wu Tong, the United States does not necessarily send troops to help themselves.
