Author: Long Yuan Xiuming, Watanabe Naoki

Source: Nikkei Chinese Network

Japan's parts industry supports 1.4 billion smartphone production an annual output of 1.4 billion units.Mobile phone manufacturers and suppliers in the United States and suppliers start psychological warfare around orders every year.Each component manufacturer has been improving immunity and reducing risk of production sharpness.Nowadays, variables such as the new crown epidemic and Sino -US technology friction have also appeared, and the psychological warfare of mobile phone manufacturers and component manufacturers is becoming more intense.The Japanese Economic News will review the interview content of the main component supplier executives without the name of the name of the name, and look back at the mutual game that lasted half a year.Today is mainly the game between Japanese component suppliers and Huawei, and then the game between Apple and suppliers.

In the global smartphone market, Huawei ranked first for the first time from April to June.Faced with the factual sanctions launched by the US government in May 2019, Huawei cleverly responded by adjusting the supply chain.However, due to a new round of sanctions, from mid -September, TSMC (TSMC) of Huawei and foundry core semiconductors is difficult to maintain transactions.The smartphone supply chain is facing a storm.

The order plan will be adjusted, please wait for a while

In mid -May, due to the new round of sanctions in the United States, the transactions with TSMC were essentially limited, and a strong earthquake in the global high -tech industry.

Huawei has to adjust the production plan with the executives of the mobile communication department.Emergency notifications to adjust the procurement plan, but the main supplier got the latest order number after June.The supplier seems to have the deviation of numbers, which shows the chaos of the front line.

It feels like (because the new crown epidemic, etc.) is to do complicated things when it is very complicated

A supplier receiving a supplier received by Huawei is confused by US sanctions.At present, Huawei informed that the main supplier's 2020 smartphone production was about 200 million units, only 10 to 20 % from 2019.The decline is very small, and such views between suppliers are prominent.

Huawei seems to predict a new round of sanctions, which increases parts inventory.The balance sheet at the end of 2019 shows that the cost of inventory and other contracts including inventory reached 167.3 billion yuan, an increase of 73 % over the end of 2018.

Huawei has begun to actively use the independent design of parts

Some analysts believe that the reason why the United States launched a new round of sanctions was that the last sanctions failed to step on the brakes of Huawei's growth.The US government has actually limited US companies to trade with Huawei, but in fact many general parts transactions have restarted.For components that are difficult to restart the transaction, Huawei intends to respond by using independent design products.

The statistics of the Japanese survey company Fomalhaut Technology Solutions show that the 5G version of Huawei's highest -end smartphone Mate30 is compared with the original model before sanctions.On the other hand, the United States' components decreased from about 11 % to about 1 %.Become a replacement of products that Huawei independently designed and purchased from suppliers from Japan and other US.

If Huawei says it, we have no reason to refuse

Against the background of the US government's strengthening of sanctions, Japanese companies are facing difficult choices.This is because if it is explicitly fighting for the negligence of Chinese and American fishermen, it will step on the tiger's tail of the US government to have a negative impact on its own US business.Azagada Monadaro, a Japan Institute of International Trade and Investment, said that Sino -US opposition will accelerate the changes in the supply chain.

Increasing inventory, procurement from the United States, and self -production, through Huawei's procurement strategy, we can see that strive to get rid of the attitude of dependence on US components.In the core semiconductor field of smartphones, what supports this route is Hisilicon Semiconductor, Huawei subsidiary with top semiconductor design capabilities, and TSMC, which has 5 % of the world's share in the field of foundry.

(Huawei) It is said that it can rely on external procurement and other responses, but sanctions will not relax easily.The order will fluctuate

In terms of preventing the supply chain from broken, Hisilicon Semiconductor can be called Huawei's lifeline.The new round of sanctions is to enter the wedge for the relationship between Hisilicon semiconductor and TSMC.Huawei's inventory will be exhausted by 2021, and the impact of sanctions will be fully appeared.Some analysts believe that Huawei is exploring transactions to expand transactions with SMIC to reduce the impact of a new round of sanctions.

However, SMIC's production technology is considered to be about two generations behind TSMC.Production equipment depends on topics such as European and American companies.SMIC's raising funds from the stock market and government -related funds is strengthening technology development, but it is not easy to master the most cutting -edge semiconductor technology in a short time.

I still can't see the trend of Huawei who can fill (its own parts) vacancy

According to statistics from the US survey company's IDC, Huawei smartphone shipments were 55.8 million units from April to June.Among the top five, the shipments of other manufacturers other than Apple have decreased. Huawei has only decreased by 5 % year -on -year.

Due to the new crown epidemic, the smartphone market has ushered in.The Sony forecast market, which is the first in the field of image sensors, will slow down, turning to mid -end and cheap models.The operating profit of the image sensor business of Sony in 2020 (as of March 2021) is expected to decrease by 45 % year -on -year and sharply decreased to 130 billion yen.If the sales of high -end models slowed down, the benefits of various suppliers will deteriorate.

Huawei is in a dangerous situation, but has mastered the local market in China.Tian Mura, the representative of Asia, the US survey company DSCC, believes that if the supply chain can be reconstructed in a huge Chinese market, it can maintain its business.Is Huawei expand or decline?Suppliers are also being bold.