Author: Wu Di

Source: Hong Kong 01

Recently, Belarus's political bureau has been unpredictable.

In the past weekend, Minsk, the capital of Belarus, who has a population of only 2 million people, has at least tens of thousands of people on the streets and asked President Alexander Lukashenko to step down. Some local media even expressed that there were as many as 200,000 demonstrations in the demonstration.EssenceThe demonstrators questioned the results of the Belarus election on August 9 (Lukashenko, who was in power for 26 consecutive years, was re -elected for the sixth time with 80.10%, and the voting rate was 84.17%).The red and white flags that appear in the crowd sometimes made everyone realize that this was a political crisis that was even better than the anti -government demonstration in 2010.

Faced with this situation, Luka Shenke kept his usual strong man's style.When delivering a speech with supporters around 10,000 people on Sunday, he denied the fake of the votes, saying that the opponent was a mouse supported by foreign countries, accusing NATO in the west of the country in the border, and called on the people to protect the country's unity and security.The election was re -held in response to the requirements of neighboring countries such as Poland, Lithuania, and said that this would cause the country to destroy.

On the other hand, he also talked twice with Russian President Putin on weekends.The Klinslin subsequently issued a statement that Putin realized the external pressure faced by Belarus, and Russia was willing to provide assistance in the framework of the collective security time organization (CSTO) to provide assistance.

Note: In 1992, Russia, Armenia, Kazakh, Kyrgyzstan, Tagik and Uzbeki signed a collective safety treaty (also known as the Tashkend Treaty).Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgi were full of joining the following year, and the treaty came into effect in 1994.In 1999, the six countries except Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbek were renewed for 5 years.In 2002, the Six Kingdoms established a CSTO as a military alliance similar to NATO.Uzbek joined CSTO in 2006, but withdrew in 2012.

According to Belarusian official media Belta, Lukashenko also told the Minister of Defense that (with Putin) when talking about military elements, because our country has reached a CSTO agreement with Russia, the current situation involves the relevant agreement.

All this is self -coming. Since the results of the August 9th election, the police and the protesters have repeatedly broke out fiercely. The government detained nearly 7,000 people. In the process, two people died.In the past week, the information that has been gradually revealed shows that the detained people have been treated violent and even abused.As a result, since last Thursday (August 13), the demonstrators of Minsk (and cities across the country) have gathered again and eventually become today.

This is a practical political crisis.In comparison, although the demonstrations in 2011, 2010, and even earlier, are almost the same election -related drama, at that time, the number of people was only about 10,000 or 20,000, mainly the opponents, and now there are so -called foreign factors, evenBut it also represents the dissatisfaction between Minsk and Belarus to the current political situation of the country.

Obviously, Belarus's political crisis reflects the country's serious problems.But what is the problem?Looking at it, Luchenke, who is called the last dictator of Europe for 26 years, is undoubtedly the target of the criticism.At least most people are currently judged.

However, politics and economy have always been complementary.In order to understand the current crisis of Belarus, you may wish to see its recent economic situation.

After Belarus independence in 1991, Stanislav Shushkevich, the government, resolved shock therapy in the country to conduct the privatization, liberalization, and westernization reform of the country in the country, which led to a comprehensive collapse of the economy, political and social life unprecedentedlyturmoil.After Lukashenko came to power in 1994, he immediately stopped the large -scale privatization. While stabilizing the economic situation, he advocated the implementation of a gradual, social -based, and controlled market economy reform. The goal was to establish marketing socialism.

In 1996, Belarus and Russia formed an alliance country.Due to the continuous stability of the domestic affairs bureau and the sufficient energy raw material guarantee of Russia, Belarus has exerted its own advantages in processing industry and the economy has begun to go on track.From 1996 to 2008, the average annual growth of Belarus GDP has increased by more than 8%for 12 consecutive years. The inflation rate has decreased from 103.9%in 1991 to 13.5%in 2008. Residents' lives have improved greatly.The level and the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the proportion of deficits accounts for GDP has been maintained below 2%.By 2013, there were a large number of households from poverty alleviation in the country. The lowest income of 40%of families achieved the fastest growth. Economic growth was better distributed, and resources were better cycled in state -owned enterprises, society and private enterprises.

At present, Belarusian economic structure is mainly industry. 23 % of the employment population is engaged in industry. Industrial output value accounts for 25 % of the GDP (GDP), of which almost all of which are composed of processing industries, including food, petroleum products, machinery manufacturing, and machinery manufacturing.Chemical and other.At the same time, Belarus has a high degree of foreign trade dependence, and the total import and export accounts for 120%of the domestic GDP. Belarus, which is lacking in energy resources itself, nearly 1/3 of the economic volume and nearly half of export volume are related to energy production. 80More than %of energy raw materials are imported from Russia.Therefore, Belarus relies on external markets and Russia's economic conditions.

Because of this, in the past ten years, not only in the 2008 financial crisis has severely hit Belarus, Russia has been sanctioned since 2014, and it has also had a huge impact on the Belarus economy.The real economy, foreign trade, fixed basic investment, and retail trade have all declined to varying degrees.

With the gradual recovery of the world economy and the Russian economy, Belarus has recovered since 2017. At that time, the growth rate of GDP reached 2.4%. Industry and agriculture achieved positive growth. Inflation also dropped from 10.6%in December 2016 to 20174.6%in December.However, its economic structure is backward, insufficient investment, and high debt, and the actual disposable income of residents has maintained less than 2%of the weak position in recent years.

Before the epidemic, the uncertainty of international oil prices, the limited growth of the Russian economy, and the inherent illness of Belarus economy in the next two or three, have made it difficult for all sectors to determine that its economy is difficult to return to the era of high -speed growth.Today, the outbreak of the new coronal virus pneumonia (COVID-19) is even worse.

Therefore, behind the political crisis of Belarus, there is at least a parallel economic crisis.The problem of dictatorship and election fraud may be solved by demonstration. How should these deep -rooted problems be solved?

Is the crisis of Belarus unique to Beros?

The problem of Belarus is worth pondering.It is not only Belarus, but also Bolivia is currently a demonstration due to the outbreak of the post -election.

Are these things that are connected?Does these countries that have not matured democratic reforms have not experienced the test of people's hearts?

At the same time, the root cause of the problem lies in dictatorship and non -democratic democracy, so why do the United States, which is mature in democratic reform, has repeatedly explored demonstrations?If the problem of the United States is the ethnicity, why are there no demonstrations that are similar to the United States?What did these countries do right?What about Democratic Reform equally mature France?Why is the outbreak of demonstration?Is there any comparability of the political crisis between these countries?

From another perspective, why are there so many demonstrations and protests in Japan and Singapore who have been in power for a long time?Is there any comparability of this?

What about China?As a model of one -party dictatorship, China now has a large number of dimensionsThe demonstration of power has no anti -government political demonstration.Is this because society is not free and people cannot demonstrate out of fear?Or is it because people don't think there is a need for demonstration?Is this an example of Belarus, Bolivia, France, the United States, Japan, and Singapore?

Looking back on a century ago, it was also a general situation of demonstrations that broke out in various countries.At that time, the demonstrations of the demonstrations looked at their time, thinking that the problem of the times was that the capitalism was broken, and it depends on the change of communist diagrams.The conclusion is correct or not, and people have not found the answer for a hundred years.

Today, the demonstrations of demonstrations of various countries also look at the time when they are in, and believe that the problem of the times is not democracy and representative.But what about democracy and representativeness?Is there any other cause?Is it a matter of political system?Is it a matter of governance?Is it an economic problem?Is it a question of restlessness?What is the problem of Belarus?Confucius said that when you see nothing but inside, from the example of Belarus, what experience should we conclude?In other words, is there any other thinking angle besides existing answers?

These questions thrown above are not answered by this article or even author.The reason why I repellerates is just to throw the problem and stimulate the speculation of the insider.