A report from Harvard University Public Policy and Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff jointly wrote that China's real estate industry may have touched and may drag economic growth during economic shocks (such as current epidemic diseases).
According to Bloomberg today (18th) reports, the work report written by Rogff jointly believes that China's decades of real estate prosperity has led to misalignment in housing prices and supply, and the real estate market may touch a potential dangerous high point.Due to the supervision and protection of high down payment, housing is still unlikely to become the cause of the financial crisis immediately.
This paper published by the National Economic Research Bureau believes that household income and population growth in the prosperity of real estate have slowed down in the near future, and the downward trend is expected to continue.
China's excessive dependence on the real estate industry and the close connection of the industry with other industries such as furniture and leasing services, which means that the impact of the decline in real estate activities may be amplified throughout the economy.The paper estimates that real estate and its related industries have contributed 29%of China's GDP.
The paper says: We found that the decline in real estate activities by 20%may cause GDP to fall by 5%to 10%, even if there is no banking crisis to enlarge its influence.
Although the Chinese authorities have the ability to interfere with and supervise the market, the current situation means that the realization of soft landing will face challenges. Even if the price decreases moderately, compared with the rising model, it may constitute a considerable risk.
