Hu Jianlong: For the new administrative order, many domestic media interpreted the transaction time of Tiktok as a delay in Trump.However, this is a misunderstanding of an administrative order. Trump did not make a good intention to the byte.
On the evening of August 14, local time, US President Trump signed an administrative order asking bytes to be sold or stripped of TIKTOK US business within 90 days.
8 days ago, Trump's administrative order requested that after 45 days (September 20), the group beating the group to make any transactions with any American or American company.
The new administrative order does not extend Tiktok's trading time. On the contrary, it puts a new handcuff on byte beating: it must be completed within 90 days, that is, November 15th, complete the delivery.
The selection of the 90 -day period is obviously the result of the Trump team's consideration.The voting day of the 2020 US election was November 3.During this period, the repeated leader could hold Tiktok's card in his hand to show his tough stance to China.
Byte beating is undoubtedly one of the biggest victims of the geopolitical game between China and the United States.After Trump's second administrative order came out, Tiktok's separation from the flesh of the byte beating in the United States had entered the countdown.
However, in the face of Trump's siege, more valuable questioning is: Is there still the opportunity to continue its own global journey?Will he still launch a counterattack to Facebook?
It has not been postponed, complete the delivery within 90 days
In the above administrative orders, Trump believes that there is quot; credible evidence Quot; show that after the byte beating to acquire short video application Musical.ly, the company's Quot may beEssence
The command also requires the byte beating to destroy all the data obtained from Tiktok users in the United States, and notify the US Foreign Investment Commission (CFIUS) after destruction.
Byte beating must prove its execution to CFIUS weekly, CFIUS can take appropriate measures to ensure the execution of the command, including allowing US government employees to enter the byte beating, TIKTOK, and all places and facilities in its subsidiaries in the United States; after a reasonable noticeCheck and copy any documents such as accounts, communication; check or audit the byte beating or any information system, network, hardware, software, data, communication or property, etc.; Interviewed company executives, employees, etc.
Byte beating must not be notified of CFIUS's potential buyers in writing, and they can only sell assets after receiving opposition within 10 working days.
In addition, the presidential administrative order on August 14 also requested that within 90 days (November 15) or the transaction sold by TIKTOK for 30 days (December 15) was completed within 30 days (November 15) or with the consent of CFIUS.
Earlier, the presidential administrative order on August 6 asked for 45 days (September 20), and the byte beating the group had any transactions with any American or an American company, but it was not mentioned that the signing contract was sold before September 15thYou can lift this ban.
Compared with these two presidential administrative orders, many domestic media interpretation: Trump has delayed Tiktok's trading time limit, giving bytes to beating for nearly two months.
However, this is a misunderstanding of an administrative order. Trump did not make a good intention to the byte.
Earlier, Trump requested that the sale agreement was signed on September 15, otherwise Bytedance was banned on September 20.On this basis, the new restrictions of the new administrative order must be completed before the sale before November 15th (or December 15), and completely withdraw from Tiktok's operations.
In contrast, the new administrative order further clarified the delivery time for Tiktok's US business to complete transactions (November 15).This content is a new limit, not the extension of the sale time.
Global blocking and fixed -point removal
If it is smooth, the byte beating will make a Tiktok on November 15, and the voting date of the 2020 American election is November 3.
This is not a coincidence.During this period, Trump can always use the topic on Tiktok, holding the byte beating, so as to attack China and build a momentum for his low election.
In April 2020, the Political News of the Political News Website of the United States revealed that the National Committee of the Republican Senate has sent a memorandum to various campaign teams, suggesting that Republican candidates have aggressively attacked China to get rid of the crisis of poor response.
This 57 -page memorandum was written by a senior Republican strategist, including how to associate Democratic candidates with the Chinese government and how to cope with various issues such as racist allegations.
The muscles of an Internet company with a Chinese background have also become a must -have action for this memo.The introduction of the two administrative orders accurately crack down on an Internet company that is embracing globalization and make Tiktok the biggest victim of the US election.
On the evening of August 6, Eastern Time, Trump requested it in the earlier administrative order that from September 20, all the bytes of the parent company of Tiktok and any of their subsidiaries were involved in the jurisdiction of judicial jurisdiction in the United States.Trading will be banned.
On the 14th, the administrative order stated that the White House required byte beating to peel off within 90 days: CFIUS determined, any support byte beating in the United States to operate TIKTOK's titan or intangible assets or assets, regardless of its location; from Tiktok or Musical.Any data obtained or derived from LY's American applications.
Compared with the wording of the old and new administrative orders, people familiar with the matter revealed that the new administrative order is mainly targeted at TIKTOK, and the old administrative order is more extensive, including the Tiktok's parent company's byte beating.The new administrative order directly pointed out that the forced byte beating is peeled off the Tiktok US business within the time limit, and the old administrative order is intended to curb the development of the global business.Therefore, these two administrative orders will not cover each other, but they are independent and parallel.
Although the White House had a serious difference in TIKTOK inside, last week, the US media reported that Trump's eagle traded consultants Navarro and Pigeon Finance Minister Mnuchin had a fierce quarrel in front of Trump.The former requires banning Tiktok, and the latter recommends that Tiktok is sold to American companies.
This means that even if Tiktok's US business is stripped, its destiny in other parts of the world is still unknown.And Trump still tends to block TIKTOK and bytes to beat other businesses worldwide.On August 12, Reuters reported that a White House document showed that Trump's administrative orders may be blocked on the app store.
If you come to this step, it is almost announced that the road of globalization of byte beating is over.
Give up North America, focus on Asia and Europe
The direct beneficiary of the presidential administration order, in addition to himself, also Zuckerberg.Camping TIKTOK, in addition to taking votes for yourself, you can also send Facebook a many.
However, in the public public statement, Trump believes that there is quot; credible evidence quot; indicate that byte beating quot; may take a threat to the national security action QUOT;U.S. President's conclusion is based on the review report in CFIUS.
In the past few years, CFIUS's hostility to Chinese companies is obvious.Over the past four years, only one transaction is submitted to the president to make a decision every year.All four transactions have been rejected.Barack Obama prevented a Chinese company's acquisition of the US business of German semiconductor manufacturer AIXTRON AG (AIX.XE).Trump has stopped two transactions: Another Chinese company is rightThe acquisition of Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) acquired Qualcomon (QCOM) for $ 117 billion.
According to the practice, CIFUS must announce the relevant review report before the US President announced an administrative order.It is strange that the report on Musical.ly and byte beating transactions has not yet seen sunlight.
Last week, former US government officials revealed to the media The Protocol that the chaos survey around Tiktok and the strong participation of Trump, for this group with a history of nearly 50 years, it was unprecedented.CFIUS has been criticized by the outside world as a means of promoting protectionism in the United States.The investigation involving TIKTOK became so politically shocked, which shocked many experts. They said that the Trump administration is dragging the national security process into the unknown area and exceeding the scope of legal permission.
Previously, Zhang Yiming, the founder of byte beating, also held the same view.On August 4, he said in the internal letter that the focus of the incident was not at all CFIUS forced Tiktok to be sold to American companies on the grounds of Musical.ly.Essence
At present, Tiktok is facing two options: one is to sell the US business to the US company, and the other is to withdraw from the US market.
For TIKTOK, withdrawing from the US market means to give the market to Facebook, and lose its advantages in future global competition.Facebook was happy about this result. Previously, in the Indian market, after the Indian government banned Tiktok, Facebook's picture social application Instagram immediately launched new feature Reels in more than 50 countries including the United States, which focuses on 15 seconds short videos.
In contrast, selling is the only choice for Tiktok's US business, and Microsoft is the ideal connector of byte beating.People close to the transaction revealed that by the end of the CIFUS survey, the byte began to take the initiative to contact Microsoft.For byte beating, trading with Microsoft, what they want most is not funds, but Tiktok's life in the United States.Under Microsoft's asylum, if Tiktok continues to operate, it can restrain Facebook in the United States.
At the same time, in Europe and Asia, Tiktok will launch a positive attack on Facebook.
However, the global strategy of byte beating is not in the hands of Zhang Yiming, and Trump is the ultimate talker.
(This article only represents the author's own point of view. The author has served as a number of domestic media. At the end of 2017, he founded a new media platform of the Asian Internet industry in Bangalore, India.P>
