Trial Time
Recently, Pew polls show that Americans have a good favor to China to the lowest point in decades.The previous paragraph was circulating that the United States was considering the restoration of an old law during the Cold War: not allowed Communist Party members to enter the country.
The United States' technical blockade and trade restrictions on China are stronger. The two parties in the election are higher than the anti -China door. In the past, the powerful panda lobbying group in the industrial and commercial community is now silent.These are not only the farce of the election year. The situation of the New Cold War has been formed. At least the United States is entering the comprehensive new Cold War mode in psychological preparation and thinking.
But this Cold War is not the other Cold War.China's development has been mature, and no big country can block its rise.China has accumulated a strong economic foundation in the 40 years of development. A large amount of funds, technology and talents have formed the world's largest market and the most complete country in the world; most of its energy and raw materials come from non -WestThe country, and the third world will not block China.
According to the current trend, the coronary virus epidemic is also good for China.China has effectively controlled the domestic epidemic, taking the lead in moving towards the right track and restoring the economy.And western countries, especially the United States, will continue to chaos for a while due to internal politics, systems and culture, and economic recovery will take a longer time.In this way, even if China grows far less than before, it is still on the fast track of catching up.
The United States may be powerless, but the joint Western countries are capable of derailing the rise of China's rising trains.The New Cold War Alliance is the biggest threat to China, and for this reason, the United States is promoting comprehensive decoupling with China.The trend of a group of countries formed a united front on the basis of common values is already obvious. The set of cold war is easy to recover, and many Western politicians are familiar with this.
Many defense treaties and cutting -edge military deployments were still there during the Cold War, and the United States was pushing China to the position of the Evil Empire of the Soviet Union.If you are in charge of Western countries, China's situation may be worse than the former Soviet Union, because the former Soviet Union also had Warsaw Treaty and a socialist camp.Therefore, preventing the formation of this alliance is the top priority and top priority of Chinese diplomacy.
The big decourse promoted by the United States will largely change China's external environment, so that China will face greater pressure and lose many opportunities to enjoy in the past.However, Western countries are not iron plates. There are conflicts between them, and they also need a huge consumer market in China.Compared with the former Soviet Union, there is much room for operation in China to overcome difficulties. As long as the market is open to Western countries, it will not be isolated.In the trade war, President Trump has made a comprehensive attack on the enemy and friends, and also objectively helped China.
The current situation can not help reminding people of 72 years ago. When Japan launched a comprehensive war in China and the situation was very severe, Mao Zedong wrote a long -term war.The biggest feature of this book is to see the situation: the Anti -Japanese War will be long -term, and China will win.Compared with the War of Resistance Against Japan, the main points that need to be concerned in this lasting war are the same and different.The same thing is that China must be patient, and time is in China.For the United States, endurance means failure, because the growth of strength comparison determines the earliest decisive battle, the more beneficial to the United States. This is the fundamental reason why it calls China.However, the domestic situation in the United States is complicated and chaotic, and the opportunity of solution cannot be seen.
The second focus is: Different from the great power of the 20th century and before, the current international situation has new characteristics.In the era of nuclear weapons, globalization, and high -tech rapid progress, the role of force has been greatly reduced, and competition in economic development and technological progress is even more important.These games are often not zero -sum, and they are very unpredictable, so there is a large room.Unless it is the joint choice of both parties, China and the United States are not inevitable. There are many ways to reconcile the contradictions between them.In the process, the boss's options are very simple, that is, blindly suppressing; but it has high requirements for the art of struggle in the second child. It can be said that the resolution of contradictions depends on the second child, and it cannot expect the boss to go.China needs to be able to open up to prevent it from being emotional.
The third focus is that although there are still many common interests between China and the United States, there are still many common interests between China and the United States. Otherwise, no one will propose the concepts of China (ChinaRica) and G2.Sooner or later, the common interests will emerge again, affecting bilateral relations.China is still at the center of the world trade system and industrial chain. There will still be a large number of exchanges between China and the West, and there will be a turnaround when there will be exchanges; after reaching the minimum point, it can only go up.Western countries will seek China's cooperation in many international affairs, and China should also actively expand common interests.After enduring this blizzard, there will be a clear sky.
But China avoids the common problems of rising powers: anger, impatient.Angry comes from the suppression of Shoucheng Guo, and it is often manifested by bullying, which makes people tolerate.Angry can stir up the fire of nationalism, causing a situation where it is not up.
There are two causes of irritability: first, premature self -expansion, overly estimation of their strength, so as to be anxious to challenge the hegemon.Second, even if measured from objective indicators, the comprehensive national strength of the rising country has exceeded the big country, but the former has forgotten that a considerable part of the power of the latter comes from the international system (including the value system) it has operated for decades.The accumulation in this area is almost zero.Angry and impatience can cause misjudgment, causing emerging countries to be beaten down.There are many lessons in history.
There is no bottom line in the United States.There are two reasons that China must endure.First, compared with scolding, China has received much more benefits from the United States. It can be said that without the opening of the United States to China, without the international order of post -war liberalism established and maintained by the United States, China cannot rise so smoothly.Secondly, the state of disappointment in the United States has damaged its leadership status and moral foundation and is changing it from a great country to an ordinary country.
It is necessary to distinguish between its garbage emotions and legitimate attention to the United States.Garbage emotions produce a sense of superiority of race, cultural civilization and strength, and panic that will lose its status.It is understandable that a lost superpowers have a temper and playful temperament. There is no need to mitrate the mood of garbage.Reasonable concerns and dissatisfaction with the United States need to be taken seriously and resolve them one by one.For a long time, China and the world still need the United States. There are many things in international affairs that China cannot do it and the United States can do it.For countries like the United States, it is always a strategy to be good and transformed.
The tradition of Chinese culture is self -intimidating, not shaking the pot.As a major rising country, China should pursue San to make it clear, and San cannot do it.
Three of them must be clear: 1. Why do the voices of the anti -China rigid as soon as the West arrived in the election?2. Why does China lack affordal power, even in neighboring countries?3. Why is the Cold War so easy to borrow the soul?The blame for western propaganda and discourse hegemony is to shake the pot rather than the introspection.
Three cannot be: 1. Do not confront the values of liberalism, because it is against the widespread and deep public opinion in the West and the world; 2. Do not continue to pursue other policies in inside and outside.Requirements.Foreigners are natural and reasonable to pay attention to China's internal affairs, because they want to know: What would happen if I live in this system?How will this system of ideas and behavior models affect Chinese diplomacy and international order?Third, not to be enemy with the United States.
Three that must be done: 1. greatly increase the acceptability of the Chinese system in foreign countries: no one can change the Chinese system, but China needs to make this system more humane, and it is more integrated with mainstream values.People feel that they can also live in China; 2. Comprehensively improve their level to cope with the world's expectations for superpowers, rather than staying at the level of an unrelated country; 3. Eliminate the world's concerns about China after the rise.
For the last point, the official propaganda was attributed to the Chinese threat theory conspiracy.It's not so simple.Here is a topic that everyone is unwilling to touch but must be clear, that is, the difference between China and the former Soviet Union and Nazi GermanyEssenceAfter the lessons of World War II, the determination and public opinion of the world's anti -fascisms were very strong.As one of the Anti -Fascist allies in World War II, China felt ridiculous and did not take it seriously.
But in many parts of the world, this is a very core concern.Anti in Japan has publicly issued warnings, and other countries have not publicly accused but have been wary.Linking Xinjiang Reinstallation Camp with the Nazi concentration camp reflects this kind of querousness.It took the West for more than 40 years to defeat the Soviet Union.If China does not consider itself to be the heir of the Soviet Union, it must be clear why it is different, not the Soviet Union?This is not as easy to clarify as Nazi Germany, but it must be clear and clear, otherwise only the Cold War can go.
Finally, in terms of various resources and strengths, especially in terms of scientific research, innovation capabilities, and military strength, the United States still enjoys great advantages. The decline in the United States has no conclusion.Its problem is its political system that cannot effectively integrate these resources and strengths in a peacetime period to form a strong national strength.However, under the mobilization of the war, the United States can quickly form domestic consensus to promote necessary reforms.Therefore, the possibility of upgrading the Cold War or turning cannot be completely eliminated.
The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore
