Author: Lin Zhongbin
On July 23, US Secretary of State Pompeo said that the United States and China had been blindly interactive for 50 years.This statement is the most authoritative discussion comes from the "THE China Reckoning" of the Foreign Affairs Journal in March 2018.
On July 4th, the United States departed the largest exercise in the six years in the South China Sea on the National Day, challenging the PLA's five -day exercise on the Xisha Islands on July 1.The earliest recommendation of the United States to actively show military forces in the South China Sea to curb the expansion of China ’s forces.
Surprisingly, these two suggestions for China's toughness come from the long -term staff of the current presidential candidate in the wild Democratic Party.Although Biden once gave people the impression of weakness.
Dr. Ely Ratner was the deputy consultant of the National Security Council of President Biden. He worked as a assistant to Senator Biden earlier and served as the China Mongolian Affairs Department of the State Council.He is 43 years old, and the Chinese wife's father is Shanghai's venture capital entrepreneur.In the foreign policy team of Biden Consulting, including Susan Rice, Anthony Blinken, Kurt Campbell, Rytener should be regarded as an expert in China.
What's more surprising is that when his two articles were published in the tough text, Trump was in the mid -honeymoon period.In May 2017, the United States two -party members called on Trump to restore the South China Sea Patrol and Trump ignored it.At the same time, Trump put on hold to Taiwan for sales to show Beijing.In June, Trump was willing to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative and invited China to participate in the Pacific Military Exercise.In July, Trump said in Hamburg that he would never give up cooperating with Xi Jinping.At the beginning of March 2018, Gallop's polls showed that 53 % of Americans had a good opinion of China, and for the first time in the past 30 years!Trump's tough anti -China approach today cannot deny the inspiration from Ritner, but ignores the latter's soft side.
If Biden is elected president and wants to pre -detect his Chinese policy, Rittner's frequent remarks recently are the best basis.The characteristics are as follows (the author in the bracket is the author):
● Support Taiwan: Strengthen the relationship between the United States and Taiwan in diplomacy and security.
● Controlling mainland Chinese troops: Assisting the Southern China Islands Sound of the country to strengthen military power to resist the mainland.The United States does not play forward.(The Philippines is not cooperated)
● Do not worry about fire: I believe Beijing will avoid war.
● Decompatic: reduce the degree of mutual dependence of the US -China economy.He believes that the two countries can be decoupled.(U.S. companies such as TESLA still depend on Made in China)
● Pay attention to the alliance: rebuild the United States and allies destroyed by Trump, including the cross -Pacific partnership agreement.
● There is no Cold War: firmly believe that the Cold War cannot happen, because there are two major camps with clear barriers and cutting economy.
● Seeking cooperation: advocate problems such as climate change, spreading infectious diseases, financial instability, anti -terrorism, and anti -nuclear discounts with China.
On July 30th, the Puyou polls showed that 73 Americans did not like China.In this public opinion environment, Biden, elected president, will continue Trump's tough approach.The difference is:
● Trump is a personal interest; Biden is a national interest.
● Trump's policy is big; Biden's policy is high.
● Trump is completely hard;
Trump launched a trade war that China was unwilling to fight, hurting the enemy's seven, and self -injury.Both sides are more hard -working, free and democratic, and the United States cannot win China.Moreover, the second quarter of the United States has a negative growth of 32.9%in the second quarter of GDP, breaking the historical record.China's PMI has increased for five consecutive months in July, reaching a new high in nine and a half years.The trade war cannot continue.Many of China and the United States have many interests overlap.In the future, they will be their own, and they will gradually adjust each other.
