It should really be Mdash published in the joint Zaobao on June 15; MDASH; be alert to the far -reaching damage mentioned in the last five months of Trump: Trump will be every few months before the steps to step down.Boxing.The people and the people of the world should be alert to the upcoming Trump's next five months to the far -reaching damage to the United States and the world for the various extreme behaviors made by the individual.Both the American and the people of the world should stop the world of the United States and the earth on the earth. They are abducted and destroyed by the president who has a high probability of stepped down by a month after 5 months.The unity and forward interests give the world peace and unity.
Blocking Huawei, threatening to delist in the stock market, close the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, block Tiktok, sanction in Hong Kong, and the Trump government is now threatening.ban.Trump's recent tricks can be described as one after another.
So, at present, before the November election, should China also have one counterattack and dance with Trump?The author believes that: The following seven districts should be distinguished, slow, and let the bullets fly. When it is really enough, when you have to fight back, you can fight all the opponents at one time.
In response to the current tension between China and the United States, we should persist and grasp the following seven districts.
The first is to distinguish the US government and the American people.
The second is to distinguish between Trump and the US government.
The third is to distinguish the American eagle and the US government.
The fourth is to distinguish between Trump and the American eagle.
The fifth is to distinguish the Republican and Democratic Party.
Sixth, distinguish the US government and American companies.
Seventh to distinguish short -term behavior and long -term behavior.
First, distinguish between the US government and the American people, and the core direction of Sino -US relations still depends on the people of the two countries.The friendship between the people of the two countries is the cockpit stone of the relationship between China and the United States.For the American people, appropriately increase China's positive image and some incidents in the Chinese people's publicity in the American people, to consolidate the trust, recognition, and friendship of the majority of the American people.positive image.
The two parties in the United States are now playing domestic elections with attacking China. One is harder than the American people to perform in front of the American people, which will naturally greatly stir up greater misunderstandings and hatred for the American people to China.According to a report on May 24, Politico reported on May 24, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has sent a 57 -page memorandum to the campaign agency, suggesting that the Republican candidates actively attacked China to respond to the crisis crisis crisis crisis.EssenceThe memorandum is written by a senior Republican strategist, which includes countermeasures from how to associate Democratic candidates with the Chinese government to how to deal with various issues such as racism.It emphasized the three main attack routes: one is that China covers the truth and leads to the spread of the virus; the other is that the Democratic attitude towards China is weak; the third is that Republicans will promote sanctions against China because of the spread of this epidemic.The new crown virus is a LSquo in China. Hit -and-Run rsquo; then covering the facts, causing thousands of people to die.This memo said.
The United States two -party elections, such as China as the object of attack, have greatly disrupted and damaged the positive image of China among the American people.The US polling agency Poye conducted a survey of 1003 American adults from June 16th and July 14th, 2020, showing that there were more than 70%of the people who had a negative view of China, as high as 73%, and as high as 73%.It increased by 26%over the same period of 2018.
China cannot listen to the US political party and politicians to destroy the positive image of China among the American people.The core direction of distinguishing the US government and the American people, the core direction of Sino -US relations still rely on the people of the two countries.The friendship between the people of the two countries is the cockpit stone of the relationship between China and the United States.For the American people, properly increased China's positive image and some incidents in the Chinese people's publicity in the American people, and consolidated the trust, recognition and friendship of the majority of the American people.
At present, both China and the United States are extremely targeting the purpose of the other party.However, very good is that the world today is an era of extremely well -information.There are more than 200 countries in the world, and any information in China can be spread through various platforms of more than 200 other countries in the United States.Various information spread by multiple countries, so China pays great attention to various platforms in more than 200 other countries in the United States, telling the real events of China, conveying Chinese objective voices, these Chinese things Chinese voiceIt will be transmitted through information from more than 200 countries around the world, so that the American people can get it, which can greatly check and alleviate the voices of slandering China that deliberately transmitted to the American people for the purpose of interests.
Any politician comes from the people. Any political party is among the people in the Yangyang people. If the mainstream public opinion in the United States is a great friendly and positive energy for China, it will be great.Extreme behavior.Therefore, China should attach great importance to the positive evaluation and trust of the American people.Billions of people in China and the United States are the largest cockpit stones for the future friendship between China and the United States.
Second, distinguish Trump and the US government.The competition between China and the United States is not Mdash; MDASH; Trump is anxious.It is not that President Trump will seek the re -election of the president.
Trump is just a person, an ordinary person with personal interests.He is now an ordinary individual with extremely unconfident crisis. He has too many enemies in the United States. He has too many enemies in the world. At the same time, he still has a great family industry.The word disaster can be described.
Trump's decision -making logic is first with personal re -election interests.Helpless choices, domestic hostile political parties, anti -Trump's political elite groups, and a number of media, rarely support Trump.Trone can only help himself. When you can't find too many supporters in China, other countries outside the region are compared to domestic forces, and they can find support for Trump's most friendly.
The competition between China and the United States is not Mdash; MDASH; Trump is anxious.There will be many presidents in the United States, facing competitive issues in China and the United States.Just as Trump himself thinks that the US fiscal deficit is not his own business. Many previous US presidents accumulated, and many post -presidents in the United States will continue to face. Therefore, he is fine in this session.Essence
But to be clear, when involving the competition in the world's great power, a ordinary individual (president) involved in it, but also mixed with the personal strength of any presidential candidate in the United States, andPower is too small when it comes to competition between the world's superpower.The world's great powers are easy to use to fight against each other when they are lingering and warning, so as to control the presidential choice of individuals.The two parties in the United States are the party of a loose political alliance. Compared with the power of the entire country in the world such as China and Russia, the resources and strengths they have mastered can be said to be minimal.Trump personally controls resources.
Look at the room for Bolton's new book: White House Memoirs.Bolton believes that during his tenure, it is difficult for him to determine that any major decision made by Trump is not based on re -election.count.Bolton believes that in Trump's mind, personal political interests are mixed with US national interests.Trump not only in trade issues, but also mixed individuals and countries in the field of national security.During the term of office of the White House, it is difficult for me to determine that any major decision made by Trump is not based on re -election.From the prevention and control of the epidemic and the control of domestic riots, Trump's decision -making is to be conducive to re -election to make final judgment decisions.This is the President's personal and Republican power. Compared with the world's great power, it is too small, and it is natural to rely on the power of the US presidential campaign.This is not an active impact of foreign countries. This is the U.S. presidential candidate and political parties themselves will take the initiative to push.This is the current situation of the disadvantages of the United States system.
The third is to distinguish the American eagle and the US government.Both countries have eagle factions and extreme politicians.There must be means and methods to check and balance or punish the eagle. At the same time, the American eagle school must be used reasonably, and sometimes it can be calculated.
When China closed the US Consulate General in Chengdu, it specifically mentioned that only a few extreme forces of the US government.Closing the Chengdu Consulate General, first of all, can fight back very few eagle factions, letting them know that China is not easy to mess with, it is powerful.At the same time, you can also use these eagles to use their tricks.It can be said that in this way, it is a slap to fight the American hawk, and it just follows their desire to plan the matter. They may wait for the slap in China to fight, so that the matter can achieve the effect they want.Then count it.
The eagle faction is actually the simplest part of politicians.They are nothing more than being very patriotic and tough in front of the people.This simple thinking mode of thinking events is actually very easy to be mobilized by us, and it is very easy to be led by my nose.When we target them, we only need to use two tricks: one, one, and one.How to fight?Beat wherever you are!How to use it?Stimulating his patriotic feelings to stimulate his tough behavior to use it.
It is true that China must also prevent the Sino -US governments and the people led by these eagle factions with their noses.We should not be a very small eagle ace, a few of the short -term elections of the staff, and walking with our nose.This is not the result of the clever and wisdom of our Chinese and American peoples that should be presented and used by others.The people are the easiest to be incited and used, and they are more likely to be affectionate, and they are extremely easy to be used with their noses.Both China and the United States have eagle factions and national emotions. As long as extreme events are created, these eagle factions will be mobilized, and the emotions of this shareholder will be incited.The state, the government, and the general public will be immersed in the eagle speech and national emotions of these two countries. Political correct behaviors have to be done, thereby gradually moving towards the plan of the planner designed.
Fourth, distinguish Trump and the American eagle.Trump likes and often fires people, not eagle can be kept.China should be distinguished reasonably and use Trump to combat the eagle.
Bannon, Bolton, are all famous American hawks representatives who were sweeping out of the ground by Trump.Bolton, who was fired, was also known as the eagle in the American eagle.From this, it can also be seen that not all eagle figures can be used by Trump without hesitation.
Trump is a very vanity businessman. He has not been in politics. He pays great attention to his supreme authority and status of his big BOSS. If you like to listen to fart, he does not like officials who do not take him seriously and disrespect him.The politicians around him must not give him a sense of crisis, and must please his nature.
Trump is the least confident now, and he does feel that the re -election may be really hanging.When the re -election is desperate, various methods proposed by the staff (including various eagle staff), he may adopt a trial to see, and will focus on the effects of these recruitment.Good or not obvious, he may stop the use of these tricks immediately, and consider trying other tricks.For example, after the President Guan, he did not discuss any benefits and did not achieve the effect he wanted, so he immediately stopped the use of this move and did not continue to shut down other consulates or expel diplomats.When he first started the Consulate, he shouted more consulate.
China wants to distinguish between Trump and the American eagle.Trump likes to fire people, not eagle can be kept.China must distinguish it reasonably, and use Trump to combat the eagle, and can use some separated meters to let individual eagle send it on Trump's dismissal list.
Fifth, distinguish the Republican and Democratic Party.Be prepared to deal with the new US government led by Biden.
The era of Biden is very likely to return to Obama's era.If the epidemic can end soon, Sino -US relations will return to peace as soon as possible.China should distinguish between the Republican Party led by Trump and the Democratic Party of Tomorrow, led by Biden.
In view of the regular election of the United States and the US Congress has great power on the formulation of China, the deterioration of Sino -US exchanges cannot make us lose confidence in China and the United States.This session of the government does not work, and it is not a matter of trying the next government.Time is there, and the sky has not collapsed yet.All kinds of political parties and people who are conducive to uniting the friendship between China and the United States can do more.
It is recommended that China can start thinking now and get in contact with Biden in advance.
But from the current point of view, Trump is very likely to lose the election.China is preparing to deal with the United States in the Biden era. Trump's current policy can be dragged and can be treated coldly.We can wait until November to talk to Biden.
6. Distinguish the US government and American companies.American companies are cannon fodder that worsen relations between the two countries. The desire to develop and develop is strong. They do more about uniting American companies. They are also waiting for the presidential substitution government to change.
British Reuters quoted the Wall Street Journal on August 8 that the US chip giant Qualcomm was lobbying the Trump administration, calling on the company to cancel the company's limitation of selling chips to Huawei.Qualcomm warns that the United States' related ban on Huawei may give Qualcomm's overseas competitors with a market in high $ 8 billion.
On August 10th News Since Tencent invested in many American companies, the administrative orders for the disbulation of WeChat in the United States may have a broad impact on the entire technology industry.But in addition, Apple, which is deeply cultivated in the Chinese market, may also suffer a huge impact.Apple has a wide range of user bases in China, and its important production and assembly partners are here.The United States may not only force Apple to delete WeChat from the APP Store, but also destroy Apple's Chinese smartphone business, which will affect the company's future production and sales of new products.
How to emphasize the status of WeChat in the Chinese market is not too much.Analysts Middot; Ben Thompson wrote in 2019: There is no market for analogy, especially Facebook's assets (Facebook, Messenger, and WhatsApp).Do business.No matter in the sense, WeChat is equivalent to your mobile phone.The significance of mobile phones to the Chinese far exceeds other places.For hundreds of millions of Chinese people, the iPhone without WeChat is not even a mobile phone at all.If Apple removes WeChat because of Trump's ban, its Chinese business will almost evaporate overnight.
Microsoft's operating system China also needs to be broken.On August 9, there were rumors in Chinese social media that Microsoft updated the service agreement on its official website, stating that if Microsoft could not fulfill or delay its obligations due to force majeure, Microsoft did not bear any responsibility or obligations.Some interpretations said that Microsoft recently amended the agreement, implying that if the US government issued a ban on Microsoft, Microsoft may break the confession of China without providing any compensation.
Facts will prove that all the confession will be a temporary difficulty for the opponent, and it will be given to yourself.The far market is lost.
All kinds of confession will have difficulties, but we must believe that it can be survived. In the past, China is really powerful.
In the future of the 1.4 billion population, all industries are the most aggressive futures.We don't need to worry too much about being sanctioned and broken, which will eventually prove that it is a powerful promotion of promoting our own sound and perfecting.The author said back a word: If you really want to go, the United States is made, and you will not send it.If you still want to stay, go more to persuade American leaders.Harmony with each other is the right direction that humans should have.
7. Distinguish recent behavior and long -term Sino -US exchanges.Now you are punching between the two countries and one punch. For the time being, do n’t be linked to the dignity of the country, do n’t have more competition between China and the United States, and do n’t have the long -term relationship between China and the United States.
The competition between China and the United States is a very long -term event, and Trump, who has stepped down in three months, has not been worried about the status of the American world boss in these three months in these three months.In three months, you can't do anything at all.
You know, before World War II, Germany, Britain, Japan was the most powerful country in the world. They were disabled between them. In the end, the second boss of the world did not have their respect, which cheaper the second -rate country in the United States at that time.Therefore, China and the United States are fighting against each other. At that time, the second boss of the world may not have affairs in the United States and China. Other powers can watch the fishermen's favors from the mountains and the fishermen.Now some of their poisonous national media may have been inciting Sino -US relations to encourage Sino -US relations to encourage China and the United States.This is a move that China and the United States should pay attention to the possibility of possibility of external countries.Domestic should guide the people's anxiety and anger, and don't be led by a group of American eagle and Chinese hawks.Don't be seduced by the world's unique countries.The black face is for white faces.China and Trump dealt with to learn Trump's thick skin.Today quarreled and called each other good friends tomorrow.Trump is an atypical politician, and he can compare his face speed.When he was black, it was to achieve the goal.When he white face, sometimes it is true emotions.
Surprove China and the United States, especially the United States, to distinguish between short -term behaviors and long -term behaviors. Don't take too much about something that has happened. You can't forget to let go, and you must learn Trump's thick skin.Hugging tomorrow is the best thinking to deal with Trump.Therefore, now you are punching between the two countries and one punch. Don't be too linked to the dignity of the country.trick.After a few days, let go of these and laugh.
Author: Peng Shengyu
Special researcher at the Strategic Researcher of Petroleum Central Enterprise and IFF International Financial Forum Research Institute
