Source: Chinese Version of Commercial Weekly

As the support rate of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe continues to decline, in order to boost the Japanese economy that has fallen into a decline, the possibility of stimulating policy increase has also increased.

Bloomberg News reported that the public believed that the crisis crisis responded unsatisfactory, the cases of infection began to rise, and the dissatisfaction with the Abe government began to gather.The rebound in Japan's new crown epidemic rose, and the second round of epidemic spread significantly.At the end of July, the local area first ushered in a thousand diagnosis. Since then, more than 1,000 new cases have been added for many consecutive days. This number is about three times when the Japanese government announced in April announced in April.

The cumulative cumulative diagnosis of the local area has increased from 20,000 to 40,000 in less than a month, which is significantly accelerated.In addition to Tokyo, in the severe disaster area, the epidemic in other places has also accelerated the development of a new high in the near future.The epidemic trend is worrying. The voices of the opposition party asked the authorities to announce the emergency state again and again, but the Japanese government not only did not take or advocate any restriction measures, but also announced that it gradually liberalized social activities and encouraged the public to go out.

Abe in December 2020 will usher in the eighth year of Prime Minister's term. According to a polls released by JNN on August 3, its support rate has fallen to a record low of 35.4%.

The support rate is close to 30%of the key position. According to the past, this level is very dangerous to the length of the cabinet. Bloomberg economist Yuki Masujima recently wrote in the report.Economic downturn may increase the probability of adding stimulus measures.

Due to anti -epidemic blockade measures, the GDP of Japan (GDP) last quarter was estimated to be nearly 27%.Japan may still be in a recession, and the EVERCORE ISI Japan research leader Jaewoo Nakajima wrote in the report on August 2.

The satisfaction rate of the Japanese people's anti -epidemic measures also fell again to 26%; 66%of the respondents were dissatisfied with the government's hard -working Go to Travel and other projects, and 77%of the respondents expressed their unwillingness to participate.More than 80%of the respondents believe that temporary parliament should be held as soon as possible to discuss the latest anti -epidemic measures.

High -frequency data also supports this view.Bloomberg Economic Research pointed out that according to Apple map search, as of the week of July 31, the travel traffic in Tokyo fell by 26.3%compared with the same period last year.Masujima wrote that the usage of public transportation also declined, and the sales figures of daily necessities indicate that domestic consumption recovery is slow.

Before the outbreak of the new crisis crisis, the short -term and long -term interest rates were set around zero.Although the Bank of Japan has expanded its support for loans and credit flows, most observers believe that fiscal policy still has more room for action.Even so, the recent warnings issued by FITCH RATINGS have recently worsening in Japan's budget, which may increase the resistance of bureaucrats who are worried about the long -term financial prospects of Japan.

In the future of no more stimulating measures, Japan's increasing number of cases may become the focus of market increasing attention.Evercore ISI Nakajima wrote that if the new coronary virus cases continue to rise, investors in Abe's Economics may be suffered.

According to statistics, since 2020, Abe has held a total of 10 press conferences.The last time was June 18, the next day of the Congress.The Japanese party accused of the opposition party that Abe was completely in a state of dwelling. He chose to adopt a evasion strategy, lived in his mansion, and watched his sleeves.

According to Japan's NHK TV station on the 7th, when talking about the reasons for the continuous downturn, Abe believes that it is the public's anxiety about the epidemic and the economic situation is not optimistic.Abe once again reiterated that he would not dissolve the House of Representatives in advance, but put the anti -epidemic measures first, and did not consider the dissolution of the House of Representatives at all.