Liu Juti: The key consideration of the last American swing voters may not be the issue of China, but the development and control of the epidemic.The invertedness of the end may shake the logic of the campaign.

Although the US President Trump himself and the team were hard, his election was in a hurry. The most important evidence was that his tweets issued on July 30th advocated that the election should be postponed.Even Fox News Political Editor Chris Bull, which is known as the Republican Party media; Sturtalt also criticized that this tweet made strategic mistakes and fully acknowledged Trump's backwardness in polls.Because people in a strong position will never make such suggestions.

A polls released by the Wall Street Journal /National Broadcasting Corporation News on July 25 showed that only 13 % of voters said that their voting direction was still swaying in the presidential election.Trump's support in all registered voters in polls is 40 %, while Biden has a 51 % support rate.In contrast, 50 % of people said they would not support Trump, and 37 % said they would not support Biden.

From the perspective of the United States national gambling, since the gold crossing on June 2nd, Biden continued to pull away the gap with Trump. At the end of July, Biden won 61%, and 36.4%of Trump's 36.4%, Leading 24.6%.Prior to this, in addition to Biden on March 16 with 1.4%winning a slightly winning (but still within the scope of the error), Trump has been leading Biden 4-8 percentage points.

Due to the US election group system, the election of the pushed out of Dangzhou or the SAR voter voted for all the electoral votes in Dangzhou or the SAR to the presidential candidate who obtained a relative majority voters in the constituency, so Trump's election situation depends on his election.Whether the basic market of white Christian gospels is strong, and whether the suburbs and swing states can stand up.Trump still inherits the 2016 campaign strategy, that is, inciting white resentment, especially the use of racial demonstrations to threaten the so -called law and order, intensify the confrontation with China, and dismissal the domestic new crown epidemic.But do these tricks be used?

Evangelion voters: Trump and White's resentment

The results of the 2016 presidential election in the United States show that the self -recognition of white identity identity is one of the most powerful indicators to predict whether a Republican supports Trump's strongest and powerful indicators, far exceeding economic anxiety.

According to identity crisis: In the analysis of the Battle of the Presidential Campaign and the United States in 2016, the Evangelion Protestant is the main part of the Trump Basic Late.This group is usually older, the socio -economic status is slightly lower, and is concentrated in southern United States. They usually have other characteristics, such as white and Hongzhou (Republican).

Due to the number of white gospels among voters (for example, according to the export public opinion survey of CNN at the voting office, they account for 38 % of the North Carolina voters in 2016), and they will fall intoOn the one hand, Republicans relying on the support and mobilization of white gospel voters in 2016 to accumulate the number of winning thresholds exceeding 270 voters.

Although Trump's personal behavior and remarks are often running counter to the values of many gospel factions, it is generally believed that his re -election must be completed through the power of the white gospel.On the other hand, Democratic leaders have the opportunity to interrupt this channel by persuading independent gospels to support the Democratic Alliance by persuading independent gospels.

Trump's basic disk is mainly composed of Republicans of the white worker class. There are more men than women. They agree with strict restrictions on immigration and Trump's U.S. priority agenda.They don't mind Trump's struggle with the press or attack on critics, and may even be applauding his good style of fighting.These supporters may account for 30 % of the overall voters, but they are not enough to win re -election, and Trump seems to be losing other forces that are indispensable for re -election.

Recently, the political scholar of the Brukins Society, Elaine Bull; Camar said to Yahoo Finance: As a politician, Trump's fatal defect is that he only played a role in his camp.He must expand his foundation, but he has never showed his willingness to do so, which is different from every president we know in modern times.

Trump won 46 % of the national votes in 2016. Some Trump's voters said that he did not like his opponent Hillary Bull; Clinton, not just because of loyalty to Trump.Biden is more popular than Kylinton, or it is less annoying, which means that the number of anti -Bayeng voters in 2020 will be less than 2016 against Clinton votes.At the beginning of the year, Trump's re -election seemed to be nailing. He hoped to expand the support of voters through a strong economy. However, due to the economic recession brought by the new crown virus, the unemployment rate was close to 20 %.

From the end of June to July, the U.S. epidemic counterattacked. Democrats and liberal media were blamed on the clustering effect caused by the Republican premature enlightenment and Trump's development activity.The danger of cluster infection for the community.

The United States because the police have erupted the racial fighting demonstration that broke out in July because of the police's excessive law enforcement violence and death, but Trump tried to provoke splitEssenceWhen the demonstrators destroyed the Southern Federation of General, Snuker, and other statues symbolizing racial persecution, Trump used the 9bull; 11 of the Ministry of Land and Security established after the terrorist attack, claiming to defend American monuments and federal property exemptAttack by anarchist and left -wing extremists.

However, when protests in the United States gradually subsided, Trump saw Portland, which has no governmentist Asian protests, and turned it into a theater for American cultural conflicts.The Trump's campaign team expressed the hope of passing the information of law and order, showing that the Democratic cities were severely damaged due to crimes and turbulence, and Trump was the last defender of the American people's security.

Regarding Trump's self -directed self -acting sharp street protests and conflict between the federal military forces as a highlight of the election, the Democrats currently believe that it may be counterproductive.In addition to the impression that the United States under the leadership of Trump is a chaotic and disorderly country, many voters treat the violence in protests as Trump's attempts to distract, covering up his own economy that he is inadequate and caused by his own epidemicFlow.

When voters are more worried about the health, safety, and basic life of themselves and their families, the use of so -called laws and order to use violence is not necessarily the main topic of the current voters' attention.

Swing State and Suburban Surgery

In the 2016 election, Trump's victory was largely due to his blue walls of the Democratic Party in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsonia, especially white voters without college degrees.But Biden is eating Trump's advantages among these voters.

A new public opinion test conducted by Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania recently showed that Biden's support rate was 50 %, surpassing Trump's 41 %.This result echoed the Fox News Police Survey in mid -July, showing that Biden led 11 percentage points.

Four years ago, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Pennsylvania since 1988. Part of the reason was to win older voters and suburban voters, as well as blue -collar white -collar white people in the traditional Democratic Party.However, according to the average public opinion test of RealclearPolitics, Biden's overall leading rate in Pennsylvania has been 6 percentage points, and since early June, Bayeng has led Trump in all 12 public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden also has obvious leading advantages.On average, Biden led 9 percentage points in Michigan and led 10 percentage points in Wisconsin.

In addition to the rush of swing states, in the current political environment of the United States, the suburbs are the leading indicators of various polls. Compared with cities or rural areas, the voting trend in the suburbs can better reflect the results of national voting.Of course, the voting of the election group in the United StatesUnder the ticket mechanism, the victory of the universal election may not be able to enter the White House, and the polls before the election often have deviations, including the 2016 Trump's election that caused Democrats and Republicans to break the glasses.talk.

Recently, Biden's advantages in public opinion tests are the most obvious in the suburbs, and he has received historic support from Democrats in the suburbs.In the polls of the ABC News/Washington Post, the proportion supported by Biden in suburban voters was 43 % ahead of Trump 52 %.

Biden's leading position in the suburbs reflects his performance far better than Hillary.During the 2016 campaign, Trump defeated Hillary with a 45 % advantage in the ABC News/Washington Post polling test in the suburban voters.In other words, compared to Hillary's performance in the 2016 campaign, Biden has now improved 17 percentage points.

From the perspective of white people, at least since the presidential election in 1972, no Democrats have won suburban voting with more than 5 percentage advantages.However, after Trump's administration, Trump and Republicans faced the rebellion in the suburbs. It was these suburbs that the Democratic Party won most of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections and harvested 40 seats.

Judging from the current public opinion survey, the suburbs may seem to be the weakness of Republicans again.Unless Trump reverses the situation in the suburbs, he may become the president.

Trump believes that liberal media manipulate polls for election orientation.Trump's team has always used his accidental victory in 2016 as a reason for the public opinion test, but some poll experts believe that 2020 does not seem like 2016.At present, Biden not only surpasses Hillary's performance at the end of the election, but also its performance at the same time during the campaign, but also surpasses Obama's performance in 2008 and 2012 in Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Using data from RealclearPolitics, the Washington Post extracted the average public opinion survey of 10 states and nationwide to compare the status quo of the 2020 campaign and past four presidential campaigns.Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin have performed better than the previous Democratic candidates at the same time in the past three elections.He is currently ahead of the election of Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The gap between Bayon is currently leading Trump, surpassing any data within 150 days before the two elections of Obama, and more data from Hillary within the last 150 days before the 2016 election.

Trump's opportunity and polls accuracy

But is the opportunity of President Trump's re -election without playing?The conclusions of the election research of the Brukins think tank are not necessarily.If the vaccine can prove safety and effectiveness before the early autumn, and new cases begin to decrease, and even Trump may admit errors, the public's emotions may change.

Indeed, Trump's life is full of turning point. This is his personality characteristics.Therefore, even if it seems more and more like a beast fighting, he cannot ignore his counterattack ability.

Professor Wu Xu of the Granda -Kate School of News and Communication of Arizona University in the United States believes that the polls before the election, especially the polls before the first presidential campaign candidate debate, are of great reference.The night before voting in 2016, Hillary also led Trump 8 percentage points.Because the US election group mechanism is obtained by the winners led by the state, this so -called national sampling survey can only reflect a big trend, and the reference value is not great.

Often, the national sampling polls in the United States are 5%-8%of the Democratic Party. There are several reasons here. One is the sample design process of the sample itself.People, these people are dominated by the Democratic Party.Secondly, most people who support Trump belong to lsquo; most of the silent RSQuo; do not want to publicize the position of supporting Trump, so this also reduces the representativeness of polls.Most of Trump's supporters hate the polls of mainstream media and often refuse to participate, so the polls are divided.

Wu Xu also analyzed another very important factor, that is, more than half of the US elections were settled after the candidate's three debates, because there is an important option in which the United States is actually not the competition between the two parties.It is the competition of three forces.The Democratic Party and the Republican Party are not the biggest party. The biggest forces are actually non-party people in the United States, namely the middle riding wall, accounting for 36%-40%, and the Republican and Democrats account for 30%.The ride -riding school will basically make a decision through the campaign debate, and the supporters of the two parties basically belong to the iron ticket warehouse.The more you sway the ticket, the more you drag until the end to make a decision. At this point, Bayeng often has a good performance in the general election debate. This is why in the past six months.The strategy is to silently, try to show up as little as possible, and reduce his chance of making mistakes.But on the stage of the general election debate, the tongue gun lip battle, in the face of Trump, who would play with his mouth, Biden was actually not dominant.

Is the New York Times recently issued a postponed polls in the New York Times lack of Republican voters in the New York Times?To discuss this phenomenon, the number of Democrats who advocate that in most polls exceed the Republicans, which may just mean that there are more Democrats than Republicans, because the reality registered Republicans than registered Democrats than registered Democratic partiesIt is more likely to respond to the joint investigation of the New York Times and the Siena College.

But Trump's campaign public opinion testist John Bull; Microdin quoted the results of the 2016 export public opinion survey and believed that the current public public opinion survey of the media underwent the number of Republicans.In the 2016 export polls, Democrats were three percentage points more than Republicans, and Republicans accounted for 33 % of voters. Recently, CNN / SSRS polls show that in the United States, Democrats are 7 higher than Republicans are 7 higher than that of Republicans.For percentage points, Republicans account for only 25 % of the total number of samples.

The New York Times acknowledged that even if Republicans may also respond to investigations, Trump's support may still be underestimated.But Trump's real problem is that only 86 % of the voters who voted in 2016 said they would vote for him again.

Trump's increase in Chinese issues will continue to hear in the next 85 days, at least to monopolize news, showing that he is the leader who dare to call with China.At present, it is not possible to see whether this strategy is effective for the election, but it has driven public opinion, especially the views on China, which has a significant impact.A new survey from June 16th to July 14th shows that 73 % of American adults have a negative view of China, which has increased by 26 percentage points over the 2018 Sino -US trade war.

Since March alone, the negative views of China have increased by 7 percentage points. Americans generally believe that China has handled the initial immune -oriented inappropriate treatment, which has led to the spread of the world of new crown viruses.64 % of Americans said that China did not do well in responding to the outbreak of the new crown virus.78 % of people blamed the new coronal virus in the world on the result of the Chinese government's initial handling of Wuhan epidemic.

26 % of Americans believe that China is the enemy of the United States, twice that of 2012.In addition, 57 % of Americans say that China is a competitor in the United States, and only 16 % of Americans believe that China is a partner of the United States.

The US public seems to support the United States' tough stance on sanctions on Chinese companies and officials due to Xinjiang issues.73 % of Americans believe that even if they damage bilateral economic relations, the United States should work hard to promote China's human rights; only 23 % of people say that the United States should give priority to strengthening economic relations with China, even at the expense of human rights.

50%of Americans believe that the United States should require China to be responsible for the outbreak of the new crown virus, and 38%believe that the United States should not account for accountability in order to maintain a solid bilateral economic connectionHowever, when asked about economic and trade policies against China, Americans are more inclined to pursue firm economic relations (51 %) instead of adopting a tough attitude towards China (46 %).Nevertheless, it now supports tough public opinion to China, 11%higher than 35%in 2019.

The survey also found that although Republicans and Democrats have a negative view of China and have a criticism of China's treatment of the new crown virus, the Republicans and the Republican tendency independent people are more than the Democratic and the Democratic parties.It is more likely to maintain a very negative view of China, including criticizing the Chinese government's role in the world's new crowns, and hoping to adopt a tougher policy policy for China.

This supporting public opinion trend that supports China, although part of it is due to a series of remarks and actions of the Trump administration, but will also in turn serve as a popular foundation for the more intense Chinese policy speech in the election campaign.However, I think that the key considerations of American swing voters in the end may not be the issue of China, but the development and control of the epidemic, because the epidemic situation dominates the recovery of the economy.The invertedness of the end may not shake the logic of the campaign.

(Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view. Responsible for the mailbox [email protected])