Peng Shengyu: How to extinguish the leader of the South China Sea Martial Arts

This plague has made the world's most unexpected countries that the United States will be reduced to the country with the deepest plague, the worst death infection, and the worst economic losses. This plague directly spawns the huge sense of crisis and sorrow of the world's superpowers and the United States.This is what many people may not expect before the epidemic.

But the result is this. The most powerful country, the United States with the strongest technology strength, has become the largest victim country with plague, and also directly threatens the president's throne of this strongest military power.

What is not even of the United States did not expect that the biggest competitors in the United States' major power, as the first country to explode, quickly controlled the epidemic, making China the first to restore the economy, and the plague was much lower than that of the United States than the United States.The gap and imbalance of the contrast between China and the United States in China and the United States directly stimulate the fullness and hostility of the United States to China.

According to various analysis and research, the United States does exist in the South China Sea's possibility of martial arts in China.China does be prepared for war prevention.

But at the same time, the author believes:

If a small and medium -sized Sino -US war is inevitable, the United States is the first to move against China, and China is forced to fight against the United States. China should not just fight for national dignity.

If the United States actively provoked the war in the South Island Reef, China should take the opportunity to directly attack Taiwan. This is an excellent historical time for China's military forces to regain Taiwan.Anyway, the Sino -US war has begun, so why not solve the great cause of the motherland in one way.After winning Taiwan, it is okay to bombard the South Island Reef.

1. Movement initiated by the American War

In the article published by the author, the root cause of the decline of the US Empire is: in the nuclear weapon era, the power of the US military is no longer easy to fulfill huge economic benefits.The super -American empire with the strong military power, cannot release his military advantage.Military forces are more useless.Since World War II, the global national and independent relief is extremely strong, and the US military empire bullying the small country is no longer relaxed.The economic power itself is difficult to have global dominance, not to mention that the appeal of the US economy has fallen seriously.The US system and value pursuit of highlands no longer have no cohesion to the world.In today's world, which is polarized, a country must maintain the total cost of global hegemony, which has completely exceeded the total income.If you put it into force, it will be completely worthless.In the 200 -year -old United States, the civilization of the country and the nation is still tender. Although there are ambitions to seek global hegemony, the power of its civilization is far from giving the United States sufficient ability and power to support its long -term continuous domination of the world.

The core of this root is that the United States ’military power is unavailable for war. It cannot be exerted, and it cannot release the advantages of the United States. It cannot obtain economic benefits. Strong power is useless.

The decision -making layer of the United States also definitely knows that the only military forces that can rule the world in the United States cannot play the current situation of unable to do nothing. The declined empire is impossible to use the most powerful military forces in their hands.And it is also necessary to often think that the military power must be played, and the US military advantage must be released in order to make the powerful military power not work without work.

In this crisis, the US crisis is the deepest and the sense of crisis is the strongest. In a country with the strongest military capabilities, it is impossible for a country with the strongest military capabilities to consider and release its huge military advantages to achieve the purpose of desired.

So when will the United States consider when the war will start and where will the strong military advantage of He Guo's martial arts make strong military power to work for the country?

The author mentioned in the article that it is necessary to prevent the United States from choosing the object to China.At the same time, even if Trump does not launch a war for re -election, the next government in the United States (whether Trump or Bayeng came to power), it is possible to launch a war.Because the war involved in China: First, it can transfer the internal contradictions of the United States, transfer the attention of domestic people, consolidate domestic support, help Trump's re -election, or subsequently stimulate the American industry and economy.The national dignity and self -confidence that endangered the status of the world in the United States, and it is best to eliminate the threat of world hegemon.

China has announced that it is not first offered to use nuclear weapons. The United States may think that as long as the United States does not use nuclear weapons first, China will not use nuclear weapons, and war is controlled on conventional weapons wars.The conventional military strength advantage, so this battle is more likely to win, and even if it loses, it is a big deal that loses some aircraft carrier warship aircraft, and it will be lost.These aircraft carrier warship planes were in the sun every day, doing useless work, and loss of losses can really make contributions, otherwise they would lose the same loss without the final aging.

This thinking is terrible and real.The power and disadvantages of human beings are often considered that risks can be assumed and can be implemented.This determines that risks and losses have no decision to restrict the war.

The premise of studying the report of the United States Rand Corporation and China MDASH; the premise of the prerequisites that I dare not think is this thinking.Report premise: We assume that the Sino -US war is conventional and regional. It is mainly launched by surface and underwater ships, air fighters and missiles, as well as space and network confrontation.We assume that the war was held in East Asia, including potential hotspots between China and the United States and the residence of all Chinese forces.The long -distance military deployment and continuous follow -up of the two sides will turn most of the Western Pacific regions into a battlefield and bring serious economic consequences.The two sides are unlikely to use nuclear weapons. Even if there is a fierce armed conflict, neither the two sides will not think that their losses and prospects are so fierce that they will use nuclear weapons to fight revenge first.Considering China's limited military strength, we assume that China will not attack the United States, except for cyber warfare.On the contrary, the United States' non -nuclear weapon strike coverage will be widely covered.

The Spanish Uprising Website published the article on July 30, Middot; Alexis Middot; Eldes, entitled that the United States wanted to have a military conflict with China.The excerpts of the article are as follows: In history, all the empires or great powers have its end, and the United States is no exception.Considering the current situation of the United States and the global dominance it lost, especially in terms of economic aspects, it can be considered that this day seems to be getting closer.Reality shows that the United States is experiencing obvious decline, especially in the context of the popularity of the new crowns and its worldwide destruction.However, the leaders of the United States still want to show muscles in front of other countries such as China and Russia, which is exactly the performance of the United States' fear and weakness to some analysts.The American elites and the weakness and fear of supporting their external lobbying groups can be reflected from their insistence to forming alliances to curb China's threats of their interests and security.Up to now, the conflict between China and the United States is limited to trade, diplomacy, technology and communications, but everything points to direct military confrontation.Considering the dimming prospects of the United States and abroad, it is clear that it has been unable to continue to maintain the hegemony of the past.The US political elite and its external lobbying team have always called on the international community to establish alliances to fight against China's threats.One of the trials to trigger the Sino -US military conflict is to blame the new crowns on China.The possibility of military conflicts is not unreasonable, because after all, almost all wars in history are because of the political MDASH that defends its own interests or protects the interests of their own economic elites; the conflict between territorial entities.Therefore, the confrontation in front of the United States has intensified.Just like any declined empire, there are serious internal and external problems in the United States. It hopes to avoid the ending of the world's financial benchmark.

Second, the attitude of the US Congress

According to US laws, the US declaration of war is required to vote for approval.Although the president has the right to declare war first, it is still required to vote for the parliament.If it is not approved, the president will stop.So if it is proposed to move against China, will Congress pass?Probably!

On November 19th and 20th, 2019, the Senate passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Acts without objections, and the House of Representatives objected to it with 1 vote.

On December 3, 2019, the House of Representatives of the US Congress passed the 2019 Vito Human Rights Policy Act with 407 agreed and 1 vote opposition.Essence

On March 4, 2020, the House of Representatives of the United States Congress voted for 415 to zero votes to pass the 2019 Taiwan League International Security and Strengthening Initiative Law (referred to as the Taipei Law).

On June 25, 2020, all members of the US Federal Senate, with unanimous agreements including the party members of the Democratic Republic, passed the Hong Kong accountability law and a resolution on Hong Kong to express their opposition to Hong Kong people.QUOT; Hong Kong version of the National Security Law QUOT; support.

On July 1, 2020, the US House of Representatives Zero votes opposed the consensus bill that aims to impose sanctions on China through the Hong Kong National Security Law through the Hong Kong National Security Law.Later, on July 14, Trump officially signed the Hong Kong Autonomous Act.

In the past half a year, the US resolutions to China have a very high pass rate.The two parties of the United States Congress have basically consensively consensus on China.Therefore, if the US President proposed a proposal to be controlled by a high risk and a huge interest in China, it is very likely that it is very likely to obtain a high vote in Congress.

3. The attitude of the American people

So what is the attitude of American people?The latest poll shows the flood of anti -China emotions in the United States: 73%hold a negative point of view of China.

The latest polls of the US polling institution Picou should be highly sober in China. U.S. President of the United States may have a general support for the people of the United States, if the US president proposes a controllable risk and a huge interest in China.

This survey by the US polling agency Pew from June 16th and July 14th, 2020 showed a survey of 1003 American adults.73%, an increase of 26%over the same period in 2018.Only 22%of the respondents have a positive view of China.

Poye also pointed out that since the new American New Crown epidemic in March this year, the negative views of Americans have increased by 7%of China, saying that this is mainly because the American folks generally believe that the early prevention of Chinese epidemic prevention has led to the out of control of the American epidemic.Essence

Nearly 80%(78%) of American interviewees even believed that the out of control of the global epidemic was caused by China that did not control the epidemic in Wuhan at the beginning.

In addition to holding a negative view of China, American interviewees also have negative views on Sino -US trade relations and Chinese human rights.Among them, 68%of respondents believe that the economic and trade relations between the two countries are not good, an increase of 15%over May 2019; 73%of the respondents believe that the United States should intervene in human rights affairs in ChinaEven if this will damage the economic relations between the two countries.Only 23%believe that the United States should give priority to strengthening economic and trade relations with China.

Poy's poll data also shows that not only those interviewees who support the Republican conservatives have a strong negative attitude (83%), and nearly 70%of the Democratic Party also holds a negative attitude towards ChinaEssence

In addition, 26%of the respondents believe that China is the enemy of the United States.Pew said that this number has doubled from 2012.57%of interviewees believe that China is a competitor in the United States, and only 16%of the respondents believe that the two countries are partnerships.

The results of these Puyou polls have also fully explained why in this American election year this year, whether it is the Trump side and the Republican Party, or the Democratic Party, which seem to win the voucher, is using China as the target of attacks.After all, doing so is really welcoming the current public opinion of the United States mdash; mdash; although the public opinion is full of ignorance, prejudice and flicker.

Congress can also pass, and the people can support it, which will launch a war against the US President to clear the obstacles, and will greatly encourage and stimulate the decision to start a war by the President of the United States.This is a signal that China's decision -making level must be highly warned.

Fourth, the time and place of war initiated

So when will the war time?There are two triggers.

First, if the development of the epidemic has caused Trump to have a huge steps down in re -election, it may be the biggest detonation point that inspired Trump to choose to consider war.If the epidemic continues to be upgraded, it will seriously affect the election, so that Trump will think that he will end his political career. In order to re -election, the president of the businessman will be very likely to be courageous. It will not be ruled out that the appropriate object will launch war and condense support.Transfer internal contradictions and achieve reelection!At the time of despair, in order to re -election, the president of the President of the War has not ruled out that Trump might be mixed, lonely, risked and risked, and risked to start a war.

The second is that after the general election, the epidemic continues to affect the United States. When the domestic contradictions must be transferred, the war can be moved to lift the economic production to carry out industrial production to transfer huge domestic contradictions.Even if Trump has not launched a war for re -election, as the epidemic affects the increasingly deepening of the future, the US government still has a great possibility that the war to transfer domestic contradictions to seize the benefits of aggression.The new U.S. government after the election may be the biggest initiator of the war.Mobilizing a war can shift the attention of the American people, alleviate its internal contradictions, and stimulate the American industry and economy.

On July 28th, the personal Weibo account of Zhao Zhong, who was Zhaozhong, was published in text and video comments about Sino -US relations. The main point was that Sino -US relations have changed sharply, and the threat of war in the next four months will increase.

Public opinion now generally believes that the United States will start war with the South Island Reef.Such as bombing Huangyan Island.Huangyan Island is a natural island and has no permanent population.The United States believes that the bombing of Huangyan Island will not cause the refugee crisis, and at best it only trigger the verbal word of international public opinion.Huangyan Island, as early as the 1970s, existed as the shooting range of the United States, and was used for 20 years.China has no actual garrison on Huangyan Island. The military forces are obviously weak and assault. It thinks that it has a great chance of winning.The strategic base of Huangyan Island can prevent the Philippine Duterte government from sliding further to China.Bombing Huangyan Island can tease countries that are restless in the South China Sea region, do against China, and at the same time destroy China's huge influence in the region, forcing Southeast Asian countries to choose the side team.At the same time, raid against Huangyan Island can effectively control the war in local areas, so as not to trigger a comprehensive war between China and the United States.

On July 17, the two American aircraft carrier battle group held double aircraft carrier exercises in the South China Sea again.The Seventh Fleet in the United States claims that LSquo; Reagan RSQUO; No. aircraft carrier strike group is the only cutting -edge strike group in the navy. Two aircraft carrier battle groups can form the world's most effective and maneuverability combat forces.The country's common defense agreement provides support to promote peace and prosperity in the entire Indo -Pacific region.On July 19th, the American Liden carrier strike group and the Japanese Maritime Self -Defense Force, and the Australian Navy held a joint military exercise in the South China Sea and the West Pacific.The Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group conducted joint exercises with the Indian Navy in the sea in the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean's Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

On July 13th, the US Secretary of State Pompeo issued a statement from the South China Sea.In the statement, Pompeo changed the United States to solve the policy of the South China Sea through the United Nations arbitration and peacefully resolved the South China Sea.Pompeo said that the world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its marine empire. The United States and Southeast Asian allies stand together and protect their sovereignty over marine resources.

If the South China Sea is moving, the aircraft carrier deployment and the South China Sea statement can be regarded as a preparation of war.

Fifth, Meiruo's war in the South China Sea should attack Taiwan directly.To prevent the Nanhai War, the core is to prepare for the war of recovery in Taiwan.

If a small and medium -sized Sino -US war is inevitable, the United States is the first to move against China, and China is forced to fight against the United States. China should not just fight for national dignity.

If it is justBeing beaten and maintaining the dignity of the country, the final war between China and the United States was nothing more than injury.If you win, you have dignity with face, so these dignity and face are essentially in exchange for the loss of the sacrifice of soldiers and people, the bombing of the country, and the loss of the equipment such as warship aircraft.The harvest of this Sino -US war should not be satisfied with China.

The author believes that if the United States actively provoked the war in the South Island Reef, China should take the opportunity to attack Taiwan directly. This is an excellent historical time for China's military forces to regain Taiwan.Since the Sino -US war has begun, why not resolve the great cause of the motherland in one way.After winning Taiwan, it is okay to bombard the South Island Reef.The island and reef are bombed, and it is just to continue reclaiming the island to build the island.

The South China Sea of the United States moved to China and won Taiwan in one fell swoop to complete the great cause of the motherland. The competitive trend of the China and the United States will accelerate to China.Sino -US relations will compete for decades in the next decades. Taiwan issues will not be resolved in one day. Taiwan will be an important starting point for the United States to curb China. It is impossible for the United States to support Taiwan's use of Taiwan to restrain China.So never be peaceful.

At the same time, Taiwan ’s population, resources, economy, industry, and military forces are unified into the country. China's overall forces will be greatly enhanced, and the gap with the United States will also be greatly reduced.

In summary: The South China Sea starts to attack China directly.

Therefore, China's preparation for the provocations of the South China Sea's provocations can not only prepare the South China Sea War, but also to prepare forces to regain the war of Taiwan.

Don't prepare in the South China Sea, you should also prepare in the Taiwan Strait.

If the war, the South China Sea can bombing him during the war. I hit me. He attacked the South Island Reef and I attacked Taiwan.

What's more clearly, the greater the determination of the United States may directly recover Taiwan in the United States, the greater the determination of Taiwan, the more fully preparing for the force, the more likely it is to break the idea of bombing the islands and reefs in the South China Sea.

Because the result may present this ending: Zhou Mi carefully prepares forces to attack Taiwan, but it can solve the hidden dangers of the South Island Reef. This can essentially the effect of surrounding Wei to save Zhao.

Therefore, the core of the South China Sea War is to prepare for the war of Taiwan's recovery.

Author: Peng Shengyu

Strategic Researcher, Special Researcher of IFF International Financial Forum Research Institute