Li Zifeng

Moscow issued an administrative order of basic national policy principles and policies called the Russian Federal Nuclear deterrent on June 2, and a signature of President Putin.

This document not only covers Russia's subsequent nuclear military policies and positions, but also includes a variety of Moscow who will use nuclear weapons, as well as the person in charge of the decision to control the nuclear weapons.These pasts can only be speculated by the outside world, and they are now clearly written within the official public administrative order of Russia.However, if you read this decree carefully, it is not difficult to see that this is not only an international reminder, a warning, but also a step for strengthening the confirmation of the Moscow nuclear deterrence.

Nuclear deterrence mdash; mdash; Moscow's military axis

In view of the first time in Russia, Russia clarified its principle of nuclear deterrence, whether it was detailed or implicit in the document.One of the keys to this document lies in Article 17 MDASH; MDASH; in the face of nuclear weapons and other large -scale lethal weapons, Russia will retain its right to use nuclear weapons.In the case of an aggressive behavior of the other party, as long as Russia judges that the national security is threatened and it is in crisis, even if the other party uses conventional weapons, the former may also deploy nuclear weapons.

Article 19 (A) of the law is quite ambiguous in this point. When Russia's reliable information will usher in a ballistic attack, Moscow may use nuclear weapons to compete.As for what can be defined as reliable information, and what can be regarded as the country's own existence of crisis, there is no detailed definition.

Moreover, according to Article 18 of the Law, the decision to use nuclear weapons lies in the President of the Russian Federation, that is, the Putin, which is restricted by referendum in the referendum.In other words, as long as Putin is regarded as a situation that threatens national security, Russia can fire bombs with nuclear warheads at any time.

However, in recent years, this strategy is not difficult to understand.

After the Cold War, the two -polar system was broken, and the United States became the only leader of global hegemony.However, the military strength of the Russian Federal Federation, which has risen from the ashes of the former Soviet Union, still cannot be ignored.According to the latest statistics from the Stockholm International Institute of Peace (SIPRI), the number of nuclear weapons owned by Moscow in 2020 is 6,375, more than Washington's 5,800 nuclear warheads, and far from all nuclear weapons outside the United States.

In fact, the reason why Moscow can spend less in military expenditures, but can continue to maintain its solid military status in the 21st century, nuclear military and national nuclear military policy are the most critical point.Compared with the US $ 686 billion in military reserve last year, Russia, which is less GDP (GDP in China) less than Texas, USA, is only $ 65.1 billion in military expenditures in 2019, but also accounts for about 3.9%of the national GDP.

Military expenditures do not fully represent military forces. Because the annual military expenditure does not calculate the existing (existing) military reserve, and the military force also involves many considerations such as military combat experience, policies and overall plans.However, if Russia does not have nuclear weapons as the main weapon to consolidate national security and prevent provocations and aggressive behaviors, I believe that Moscow cannot have the right to speak on the international stage.At this time, Putin reiterated the use of Russia's nuclear military positions and nuclear deterrence. It is obviously to tell the world that Russia's military strength by Nuclear military is still there and cannot be challenged.

This document has changed the past style, and the nuclear military policy and position of Leimoko is in disguise. In fact, the disguise is to further consolidate Russia's nuclear deterrence.Because of the true nature of nuclear deterrence, it is largely based on whether the country has the consciousness and preparation of the use of nuclear weapons; and those diplomatic rhetoric and threats are provocative and will be regarded as a military threat.Russia will deploy nuclear weapons.

For example, Article 10 of the Acts stated that Russia has the ability to deploy nuclear weapons to destroy potential opponents in any circumstances, and the ability to cause incomparable damage to it, as well as determination to implement such deployment absolute preparations with the soldiers.

These specific information and solemn statements are the means to strengthen the effect of nuclear deterrence mdash; mdash; to mutually guarantee the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) to scare any enemy's ambitions or aggressive acts.However, it is more noteworthy here that the files have been established and confirmed that Moscow has gradually upgraded to the principle of EscAleate-TO-Deescalay MDASH; MDash; Article 4 of the Acts clearly states that once the war broke out, Russia will use its nuclear deterrent powerIn order to prevent armed conflicts from further upgrading and end the war on the premise that it is conducive to Moscow and its allies.In other words, Russia will make the final victory at all costs at all, even if this means launching the first round of nuclear strikes.

This administrative order may provide a certain foundation and reason for Russia's future use of nuclear weapons.In fact, this is the extremely dangerous Brinkmanship (marginal policy).Because this political decision that originated from the theory of deterrent theory (Deterrence Theory), which originally, had all kinds of defects, such as assuming that all decision makers would make rational decisions, and underestimated the probability of unexpected guns and fires.EssenceBut if you can see from the past 10 years, you can see that reality will not always follow the script.Gradually upgraded to ease the policy that tried to ensure destruction and coerces other countries as samples, and it will export an out of control at any time.

Right time point

As for why Russia chose to post such a serious statement and threat at this time, there were two explanations: let Putin make its tough stance and attitude, and continued to pave the way for the expiration of its presidential term in 2024. This is one of them.The second is to reduce the willingness and probability of other nuclear weapons to have the country and its alliance, and interfere with the conflict between Russia and other countries to war.Simply put, it is to warn the United States and its allies not to intervene in Ukraine's affairs.

In fact, there are a number of laws and regulations in the documents that indicate that Russia will use nuclear weapons to resolve military threats. For example, when non -nuclear weapons have the territory of the country, the nuclear weapons and its transportation system are deployed, and some of them can be described as Ukraine.But as in Article 12 (B), as long as the Russian Federation is regarded as a potential opponent, any missile defense system, nuclear weapons transportation system, medium -range, short -range cruise ball, even non -nuclear high -speed weapon, no one, no one, no oneThe deployment of combat aviation vehicles and energy -conducting weapons will be threatened by the aggression of the device, that is, Moscow has the right to implement the first round of nuclear blows.

This is undoubtedly a kind of intimidation and a reminder.If the United States and others insist on assisting Ukraine to resist Russia, Moscow does not rule out that it will use its nuclear military deterrent and dangerous marginal policies to find the situation in which the latter is finally conducive to the latter.In addition, Trump announced in May that the United States will withdraw from the Open Sky Treaty. Under the framework of realism, Moscow's suspicion is added and believes that Washington, a non -armed air reconnaissance of non -armed air reconnaissance.

In the face of the transparent military mechanism, the trust of thousands of feet, and more unknown, Putin's choice of announcement at this time is also expected.The reason why this short -page document is so important is because it reiterates and further consolidates the principles of Russia's nuclear deterrent principles and alarms, so that Moscow will be unbeaten in various disputes in international relations in the future.

Now Moscow has a tough attitude and accuses each other with Washington.Following the INF TREATY Treaty (INF TREATY) in August last year, the New Start will also expire in February next year;, Shake the bottom of the core without spreading the core.

Regardless of whether it is the new Treaty of the Sky Treaty to reduce the strategic weapon treaty, or the principles of nuclear deterrence that Russia has repeatedly reiterated and the marginal policy that is gradually upgraded to ease, the only hope that may ease the situation and repair the relationship is about the November US presidential election.Standing at the White House leadershipThe United States of America is no longer Trump, but Biden.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of International Issues in Hong Kong

The reason why this short -page document is so important is because it reiterates and further consolidates the principles of Russia's nuclear deterrent principles and alarms, so that Moscow will be unbeaten in various disputes in international relations in the future.land.