01 Weekly
Author: Ye Dehao
Although Trump, who has not selected President Trump last Thursday (July 30), proposed a post -election election, but under the unanimous opposition of politics in the United States, the US election material, which is just three months ago, will be November 3rd.The day is held.The first presidential candidate debate will be launched on September 29. Biden, who has been hiding outside the magnesium light and let Trump make mistakes on his own, will have to go to the ring.
Although the polls are unbelievable, since the racial demonstration and epidemic rising in June, Bayeng has led Trump at a level of 7 to 9 percentage points in the polls.The Financial Times and the US election website 270Towin estimated that even if the polls that could not speculate the results of the battlefield constituencies, the votes of the battlefield constituency were back to Trump. Biden could still win half of the threshold of more than 270 votes.Economists' more complex election models point to Biden with about 90%probability to win the electoral votes.
Republican Party may lose all
For Trump, the election of each state is difficult to optimistic.In 2016, he defeated Hillary Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in Michigan, Michigan, Pennsylvania in 2016. Bynden led the 270Towin average poll 5 ahead of 5 aheadTo 9 percentage points.The model of the economist also predicts that Biden has more than 85%of the probability of defeating Trump in this three states.
At the same time, the Republican base camps such as Georgia (Georgia, Georgia, who have not supported Democratic Presidential candidates and Georgia, Georgia, only supported the Democratic Presidential candidate, and Georgia, who only supported Republican candidates, has become difficult to win and defeat, it has become difficult to win or defeatThe battlefield constituency.In the 11 voting tendencies that have changed since January this year, the direction of nine states has favorable for Biden.Since 1964, Florida, which has never lost the results of the National Presidential Election and the Republican Presidential Election of the President of the Republican President, has never lost the past century.percentage point.
This is the case. It is said that Mai Cornell has called on party friends to alienate Trump if necessary.Republicans have joined forces with the Democratic Party of Congress earlier to use Trump's threatening of veto national defense budget bills; and for the proposal of Trump's post -election, a number of Republicans of Parliament have publicly expressed strong opposition.However, regardless of the relationship between the Republican Party and Trump himself, they must also use this in just three months to break the situation.
Today, for the innocent Biden, Trump seems to only be better at the tough policy level of China.With the recent Cold War remarks from the United States, the United States' attention to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, especially the South China Sea issue, will Chinese cards become the protagonists of October surprise?Everyone can wait and see.
