Recently, Fu Gaoyi, a former director of Harvard University Rongxiu and former director of Fei Zhengqing's East Asia Research Center, issued a warning: Unfortunately, there is a possibility of military conflict between China and the United States.
On July 21, the United States Global Military Website released a global military power list. The United States, Russia, and China ranked in the top three. India followed closely, and Japan and South Korea ranked fifth and sixth respectively.The global military ranking comprehensively considers 50 factors such as the population, troops, weapons and national defense budgets of a country, and calculate the military evaluation index, but whether it is supported by the appraisal project.
It is not difficult to find that except the United States, the top six countries in the rankings are around China.Based on the launch of the Indo -Pacific strategy in the United States, it has extensive influence in the Indo -Pacific region. Especially in the field of security, the United States has a security treaty or defense agreement with countries such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia.Military cooperation in Vietnam and India has built the arcs of Indo -Pacific Strategy, becoming the main promoter of the security and stability of the Indo -Pacific region.
Under Japan, India, and Australia, the Indo -Pacific countries actively promote docking with the US India -Pacific strategy. By expanding military sales and improving the level of military security cooperation, it has set off a military reserve competition in the Indo -Pacific region.Trade disputes, territorial disputes, historical leaves, and geopolitical games, etc., have continued to rub the sparks of war, so that a gunpowder barrel has been formed in eastern Asia and the western coast of the Pacific Ocean, which has continued to move towards the edge of the war.In fact, the danger of conflict between the outbreak of the Indo -Pacific region is the result of the common role of various factors.
From the perspective of the geopolitical environment, the geopolitical environment of the Indo -Pacific region is particularly complicated.The Indo -Pacific area was originally a biological geological concept, referring to the large southern tropical regions near the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific.With the formation of the U.S. Indo -Pacific Strategy, China ’s Belt and Road Initiative has passed through this place, and the geopolitical demands of Indo -Pacific countries have different geopolitical demands, making the Indo -Pacific region become a key area for geopolitics.
In the context of the global strategy and regional strategy, the national comprehensive national strength of the Indo -Pacific region has continued to improve, the demand for regional affairs leadership and the intervention of out -of -domain power to give India -Pacific countries in cooperation and competition, consensus and differences, harmony, harmony, harmonyIn the game with contradictions, great uncertainty is added.
In addition, the Asianan, located in the center of the Indo -Pacific area, also adopted a ambiguous attitude, on the one hand, showing the strategic attention of the Indo -Pacific region; on the other hand, it also tried to avoid becoming the stage of the big country.Geographical politics covered a layer of more mysterious veil.
From historical facts, historical problems have reduced the political mutual trust between the majority of Indo -Pacific countries.Although the past that happened in reality and history is getting longer and longer, the key issues left over from history have not been completely resolved, which not only seriously hinders the further development of the relationship between the relationship between the Indo -Pacific countries, but also under the stimulus of the new situation and the stimulus of the new factors and the new factors.The fermentation heated up.
The problems left over from history have been excavated and enlarged, and they have become particularly sensitive and complicated. Countries of various countries have become vague and slacked with historical issues. When dealing with historical issues, they show repeated impermanence, reversing, and even rejection.fall back.This greatly reduces the mutual mutual trust of each other, leading to a decline in their willingness to cooperate, further expanding cracks, and increasing danger of conflict.
From the perspective of border disputes, territorial disputes have become the fuse of confrontation upgrades.The China -Japan Diaoyu Islands, China -India Border, South Korea -Japan Duki Island, Russia and Japan's northern islands, Indian Barcashir, and South China Island Reef are extensive territorial disputes, and they are also an important feature of geopolitical and international relations in the region.
Due to the tough attitude of all parties, a series of domestic measures are adopted as much as possible to strengthen the chips in territorial disputes, and hold up the national righteousness. There is no room for negotiations on territorial issues.The provocation of Vietnam has led to the spread of confrontation between the confrontation between the disputes, and the contradiction is increasingly acute.The long -term existence of territorial disputes is an objective fact. In the foreseeable future, there is no breakthrough solution, and it will become a potential danger of the conflict of the Indo -Pacific explosion.
Judging from the intervention of large countries outside the territory, the participation of international forces has exacerbated the tension in the region.With the heating up in the Indo -Pacific region, the global strategic pattern has undergone qualitative changes.Of course, this has also become a key area for international power attention, and it is inevitable that foreign countries are involved in regional affairs.
On the one hand, the countries in the region actively introduce the intervention of out -of -domain forces in order to improve their power in the Indo -Pacific region; on the other hand, the out -of -domain forces actively intervene, trying to lead the regional situation, provoking all kinds of contradictions and conflicts that may cause opposition, confrontation, and direction, and towards the conflict.Some countries release error signals, constantly give consultations to create obstacles, exacerbate the internationalization and complexity trend of regional problems, making the unstable India -Pacific region more turbulent.
Given that the possibility of conflicts in the outbreak of region is greatly increased, in view of the possibility of the Indo -Pacific region, the possibility of conflicts in the outbreak is greatly increased. Maintaining regional security requires everyone to work together.In fact, promoting and maintaining peace, prosperity and stability in the Indo -Pacific region is the common responsibility of Indo -Pacific countries and a common wish.
Conflict and war are not in line with the interests of the Indo -Pacific countries, and the Indo -Pacific countries do not want themselves to be in a dangerous situation.Only by condensing consensus, promoting dialogue, strengthening collaboration, and promoting the construction of a security governance model in the Indo -Pacific region can we maintain regional peace and promote common development.To destroy the security of India, but instead, the big country outside the territory hopes to fight for each other, and the fisherman gets the strategic intention.
Of course, countries in the domain will not be led by the nose outside the territory. Instead, they will take the initiative to avoid political and exclusive arrangements, and formulate multilateral trust measures, strengthen dialogue and cooperation in the open and inclusive principles, and create a seal too much.The beautiful future of peace and prosperity in the region.
(The author is the teacher of Sichuan Police College)
