Author: Helang Wu Shi, Ishikawa Run
Source: Nikkei Chinese Network
The expansion of the epidemic of new coronary viruses is causing huge scars on the world economy.Data published by the US Department of Commerce on July 30 showed that the actual domestic product (GDP, after the adjustment of seasonal factors) was converted from April to June.Due to the expansion of the epidemic, the momentum of recovery from July to September also faced uncertainty.The compound crisis of the new crown virus infection and the economy stops signs of the end. Whether it can maintain employment support measures has become the current focus.
From April to June, American GDP created the largest decline since 1947 with statistical data.From April to June, the GDP published by Germany decreased by 10.1%month -on -month, and the conversion was even more than 35%of the United States.
The scars of various countries are obvious.Morgan Chase predicts that the growth rate of the euro zone from April to June is -40 % at an annual rate.India, which has not stopped the epidemic, also decreased by 40 %, and Brazil decreased by 51 %, facing unprecedented economic deterioration.
The United States and other countries have resumed economic activities in April and May, and the recovery expectations have been strengthened.All countries are expected to be converted from July to September to the annual growth rate of 2 digits.
However, the new coronal virus epidemic expands again, and the signs of stagnation of economic activities has been rapidly strengthened.Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve (FRB), made it clear that if the data observation of credit cards is observed, personal consumption will slow down from late June.
Although from July to September, it has turned positive growth, but it is still lower than the level before the new crown virus epidemic.According to the prediction of the Bank of Paris (BNP Paribas), the United States has shrunk 6 % in the same period than before the crisis (October to December 2019).
The euro area also shrinks by 10 %.In Germany, the automotive industry as a pillar industry is severe.In April, domestic passenger car output decreased by 97 % compared with the same month of the previous year.In June, in order to reduce the level of 20 % lower than the same month in the previous year, Daimler, Germany, believes that it is impossible to recover sales due to the new crown virus in the second half of this year.
Only China (increased 5 %) in the level of the new coronal virus epidemic in major countries.India atrophy 6 %, Brazil also shrinks 8 %, and the road of economic reconstruction is extremely long.From July to September, Japan also shrunk 5 % than the new crown virus epidemic.
The Japanese Cabinet Mansion said on the 30th that it is expected to grow -4.5 % in 2020 and 3.4 % in 2021.However, the mainstream view believes that the GDP level is restored to the new crown virus epidemic, and it will wait until 2022.
The unemployed in the United States has reached 17 million today and the unemployment rate has reached 11 %, maintaining the worst level after the war.If the progress of economic recovery is slow and the risk of the second bottom of the labor market, it may have a negative impact on personal consumption.
The focus is that the US $ 600 unemployment relief fund at the end of July increased the trend of special cases.Focusing on the scale of unemployment benefits, the opposite of the opponents in the United States Congress and the oppositions and the opposition.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that economic losses caused by the new crown virus crisis reached 13 million yen in the two years from 2020 to 2021.
However, risks are not limited to this.The confrontation between the United States and China has further deepened, and the renovation of global supply chain is further delayed.The resolution of excessive debt accumulated after Lehman's crisis has been postponed, and even leaving the next fire of the financial crisis.
