Since Trump has become a presidential candidate for the United States, because of its political style that is called populist authority by American scholars, the American traditional political elite and media have never been optimistic about him.All aspects of Trump's internal affairs and diplomacy run counter to the traditional American tradition, and the chaos in the US internal affairs is born.
Within the United States, the decline of the United States is endless.Many people believe that Trump not only did not make the United States great again as he claimed, but on the contrary, Trump accelerated the decline of the United States.There are also many people in the United States who have regarded the United States under Trump as a failure country.
On the outside, Trump's United States is not optimistic.In this Coronary Virus crisis, none of the countries (including the United States, including the United States) for help with the United States, which is the first time that the United States has entered the world system for more than 100 years.Other countries, especially the United States allies, know that there is a directional error in the United States, but maybe because of fear of Trump, maybe because he feels incompetent and helpless, no country's leaders try to publicly remind Trump or the United States.
Chinese society also shows complex emotions in the United States under Trump.Many people worry about how Trump's irrationality and irregularities, especially how to act when Trump faces adequate elections.Will there be contradictions out of the outside, and to the extreme?Do you continue to upgrade the Cold War that has already begun between China and the United States?Is it challenging China in the core interests of China and Taiwan, or even a war?More people show light emotions. They believe that the United States has declined, and even believes that the United States has become a failure country because of its failure.Some people even start to regard the decline of the United States as an opportunity for China to replace the United States on the international stage.
At this stage, China's continued rise is unstoppable regardless of the United States' policy to China.However, if people follow some of the views of the United States, they think that the United States is declining, or the United States will disintegrate, and they can replace the United States internationally, they will make great strategic mistakes.Other countries can understand the United States by mistake, and China cannot.Because the United States has defined China as its number one enemy, China's estimation of the United States must seek truth from facts and have enough realism.
Reasonable analysis of the internal contradictions of the United States
Everything that happens to the United States must be rational analysis.
Diplomacy is the continuation of internal affairs.Today's US foreign policy is a reflection of its internal affairs.Inside, the United States is facing several major contradictions today.
First, racial contradictions are mainly manifested as BLM (black life) exercise.The movements of other races also exist, but they are drowned by the black movement.
Second, class contradictions are mainly manifested by huge income distribution and wealth differences.Since the 1980s, under the leadership of New Liberal Economics, the United States has grown up after World War II and is also proud of the United States.
Third, ideological extremes, mainly manifested in the sharpness of contradiction between conservative and liberalism, and evolved into radical conservatives and radical liberalism.The intersection between the two is getting less and less, and there is no compromise.
Fourth, the contradiction between political interests is manifested in the contradiction between the Democratic and the Republicans.Confrontation and hatred have been publicized and irrelevant.
All these contradictions have led to the problems of the US governance system, or the governance failure as some people say.The key to the failure of governance lies in the failure of the party system.Since modern times in the West, political parties have been the most important means to organize national political life.Especially in the United States, almost all problems must be transformed into national policies through political party politics.However, in the case of the opposition and veto of democracy and the Republican parties, effective governance cannot be talked about.
All these internal problems are also reflected at the international level at different channels, and many international and diplomatic problems have occurred. The main manifestations are:
First, adjust the allies.Alliance relations are the main axis of US diplomacy.During the World War I, they entered the world system, and became the leader of the world system after World War II.Although the United States provides most of the so -called international public products, the United States mainly dominates the world through an alliance with other countries.Obviously, no country can dominate world affairs alone.After Trump came to power, the United States quickly reduced its commitment to allies, or required allies to bear more costs to maintain the relationship between allies, or reduce assistance and support for all aspects of all aspects.
Second, retreat from international organizations.Because of the difficulties faced in China, it is difficult for the United States to support an excessive expansion empire.The problem of reducing the involvement of unnecessary international affairs has been raised before Trump.President Obama began to plan how the United States was withdrawn in an orderly manner from some areas of international affairs (especially Middle East affairs) that had reduced influence on the United States, and turned to more important areas (such as the Asia -Pacific region) that was more important for the United States.But after Trump came to power, this strategy evolved into a comprehensive group.The United States not only retreats from some of the United Nations organizational systems (such as the World Health Organization), but also retires from its own regional agreement (such as TPP).The multilateral agreement has also been re -arranged, such as the North American Free Trade Zone.
Third, corresponding to the rise of internal populism and rising foreign nationalism.Nationalism is the weapon of weak countries, and a strong country does not need nationalism.After World War II, after the United States became the most powerful country in the world, the United States was the most international country, and nationalism tended to a minimum.To many Americans, nationalism seems to be a matter for other countries and has nothing to do with themselves.Before the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, the United States performed confident, open, and tolerant.
The intensification of internal contradictions in the United States has led to the rise of Trump's populism, and the external manifestations of internal populism are nationalism; at the policy level, trade protectionism, economic nationalism and anti -immigrant.It is expected that if the United States cannot solve domestic governance problems and continue to weaken, American nationalism will rise.
Fourth, the decline of soft power.This is an inevitable ending of the rise of nationalist foreign policy.What the Nationalist Foreign Council highlights the selfish nature of a country, and its profit is a picture, and it does not consider the interests of other countries, even the interests of allies.Seeing that after Trump came to power, even if many American allies were shocked by the United States, they were careful to deal with the United States, neither offending Trump nor blindly following the United States.
Fifth, the evolution of China policy has become a hostile policy.The hostile policy of the United States to China is manifested in two aspects of internal and external.On the outside, the United States has officially defined China as its number one opponent, while Russia is second.The diplomacy that the United States is now focused on China and tried to form the most extensive united front to deal with China.But more importantly, the policy of China has also become an important part of the US internal affairs. Both parties are more competitive to China.Here is a key role in political role, that is, demonization of China.
Agree with politics has a long -term impact on the US policy on the United States, because it profoundly affects the cognition of American society (the public) of China.Once this cognition is socialized and transformed into culture, it is difficult to change.The US recognition of the Soviet Union at the time still had an impact today.Even if the US authorities want to improve the relationship with Russia, this effort has no social foundation and it is difficult to achieve.
The consequences of misjudging the situation of the United States
The internal contradictions of the United States and the implementation of a comprehensive suppression of China, the mixing of the two is enough to promote the misjudgment of some people.If this misjudgment affects China's foreign policy, it can be foreseeable, and it will be difficult to avoid falling into the U.S. policy agenda.Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an effective US policy, and people need to analyze rationally on the basis of basic facts.At least the following points need to be recognized.
First, the United States is now facing a political crisis officeThe triggered governance crisis is not the overall political system crisis.The core of the US political system is the constitution, and the constitution is reflected in a spirit.The United States is regarded as the first new country. At the beginning of its founding, there was no heavy historical burden. It can organically combine the best human quality institutional elements of human beings at that time.Therefore, although the United States is young, it is indeed a civilized country, that is, the United States represents Western civilization.
The political system in the United States is open. Facing the future, the Constitution is constantly revised according to the needs of the times.Historically, the United States has both great leaders, but also no shortage of people, making mistakes and correction coexistence.Today's BLM Movement is pushed to liquidate the history of the United States, the statue of politicians, including constitutional figures, is pushed.However, the statue of the constitution can be poured, but the constitution will not fall; the constitution can be corrected, but it will not abandon.It is difficult to imagine that in the foreseeable future, another alternative will appear in the US political system.
Second, the American institutional space is large enough, or the system cage is large enough to accommodate social movements.Social protests and rebellion are the inherent parts of the US political system, and the system design has fully considered this.Today's Boxing Black Movement has caused some people to doubt whether the US system will collapse and whether the system cage will be broken.But from historical experience, this possibility is not great.
Today's black movement is far less than the Black People's Rights Movement from the 1960s to the 1970s.In addition to the civil rights movement, there was a huge anti -Vietnamese war movement.The process of processing in the United States is to make the cage larger and give more legal rights at various social groups.Because of this, various social sports will affect the United States, but they cannot change the nature of the US system.Today's American identity is prevalent and the fragmentation of social movement is difficult to gather in an effective impact on the overall political system.
Third, the rebound of conservatism.Today's social movement is the product of radical liberalism in the United States, and it is the logic of liberal development.But this does not mean that American society will develop in the direction of radical liberalism.On the contrary, radical liberalism is also leading to a strong rebound of conservativeism.Historically, after World War II, liberalism led American politics and economy, but by the 1980s, Lenism (that is, new conservativeism) rose.
Today, with the radicals of BLM movement, conservativeism is also rising.The contest of freedom and conservative power is inevitable until both parties move to a new equilibrium.In this process, will the United States start a civil war?As mentioned earlier, the political system of the United States can basically accommodate various social protests and rebellions. Few people think that today's resistance will evolve into civil war.
Fourth, the separation of economic and politics.Economic autonomy is the most significant institutional innovation since the Western modern times.With the rise of capital, capital pursue independence, so as not to be impacted by political power and society.Since modern times, the Western system is core at the core, and various institutional arrangements are for the security of capital.Marx has pointed out this and has not changed greatly so far.Therefore, in the West, all other problems will not have a fatal impact on the economy.Politics can interfere, regulate, and revise the economy, but cannot dominate the laws of economic.This is also confirmed by the crisis of the crown disease.Crown disease has caused a huge impact on all aspects of American society and daily economic life, but it does not constitute tremendous pressure on the basic economic system of the United States.
Fifth, experienced, each crisis will affect the soft power of the United States in the international community, but after each crisis, the hard power of the United States is not only affected, but also becomes stronger.There are many factors behind this, but one of the important factor is the separation of the above politics and economy.Today, there is no significant signs that the hard power of the United States is declining.Furthermore, the existence and rise of hard power will help the United States recover soft power after the crisis.
If you can take care of these basic facts, it is not difficult to draw the following conclusions.
First, the decline of the United States is relative, which is compared with the development of other countries.If compared with the past, the United States is still developing, but it is only slow.
Second, the decline of the great power is a long historical process.The decline of China has gone through a long time. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia's military is still one of the most powerful.In this long process, the United States still has the opportunity to revive.
Third, the United States did not comprehensively decline, but partial decline.In the fields of economy, military, science and technology, innovation, no country can still be compared with the United States.
Fourth, the theory of decline within the United States is mainly caused by the deep crisis of Americans.The United States is a sense of crisis -driven society.Compared with nationals in other countries, Americans rarely have patience.Because of democracy, openness, and freedom, the Americans called out as soon as they suffered, and the media that was keen on reporting negative news, the American society often had a deep sense of crisis, and politicians (because of votes) had to have to have to have to have to have to have to votes.Response.It is not difficult to understand that the sound of the West and the decline of the United States have never been interrupted in the West and the United States.
As far as Sino -US relations are concerned, the conclusion is also clear.First, the tension between the two countries is determined by the structure, that is, China has risen to the extent that the United States is considered a real threat.Second, the United States can be enclosed in China, and the surrounding can also affect China, but it cannot curb China's continued rise.Third, China and the United States are not who replaced them. The United States cannot curb China, and China cannot replace the United States.Fourth, the issue of China and the United States is the issue of coexistence.Losing all unrealistic fantasies, learning to coexist with the United States should be the starting point of people's thinking.
(The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
The article only represents personal point of view
