Will the US dollar lose the status of hegemony after the pound?

01 Viewpoint

The foreign exchange market continued to fluctuate last month, and the exchange rates of major currencies in the world have risen against the US dollar, while the US dollar was greatly sold due to the decline in national debt yields and economic prospects.The momentum of the depreciation of the US dollar is not only the result of excessive demand, but the trend of investors in the US epidemic, and even the Fed's fiscal policy effect is unknown, so that people will lose confidence in the US dollar as a global reserve currency.However, when the position of barely maintaining the US dollar must pay great political and economic costs, the abandonment of hegemonic rights is also a solution for both harm.

The Global Foreign Exchange market appeared unique in the last month.On the one hand, euro exchange rates have increased in ten years, and the pounds have also recorded the best performance in the same month in 1990, while the exchange rates of other major currencies such as Corporation and yen in Sweden have risen.On the other hand, the exchange rate of the US dollar against other currencies fell 4.4%last month, the largest single -month decline in ten years.Although the cause of the US dollar, the reason is that the country's second quarter GDP set the largest decline since 1940, and the epidemic has not stabilized, but the deeper is that international investors have begun to worry.Global status of currency.

US dollar as a global reserve currency

After the World War II, the Bretton Forest Agreement established the US dollar to become the protagonist of the international monetary system. Although the status of the US dollar in the world will help extend the influence of Washington, it is not costless.Due to the dominant position of the US dollar, it is derived from the needs of governments and business circles for reserve currencies. When funds flow into the United States, it will not only push its exchange rate, but also expand the frequent account deficit and be complicated.In other words, the dollar, as a global reserve currency, can absorb excess capital in various places, how to swallow is the issue that Washington has always been ignored.

First of all, a large amount of capital flows into the United States, which does not necessarily flow out of the real economy through the financial market, but most of them will only stay in the financial market.Under the rapid growth of China and other emerging economies, the United States has a relatively narrow share of the global economy, making the growth of the US economy and cannot catch up with the speed of capital inflows.This not only makes the performance of the financial market completely out of the growth of the real economy, it will also indirectly promote the asset prices of the United States, increase the gap between the rich and the poor, and add unstable factors to society.

Secondly, a large number of international capital inflows have also pushed the US dollar exchange rate to be artificially increased, weakening the competitiveness of the domestic manufacturing industry.Multiple types of work have been transferred to Haiti, which can also be said that consumers are found to be based on producers, but the latter is to rust belt, such as the traditional industrial areas such as Wisconsin and Illinois and other traditional industrial areas.Land bearing.This can also explain why Trump can wake up the people's resentment of the current situation in the rust belt through a few simple and empty slogans in 2016, and transform into the voting of the White House in the White House.

US dollar hegemony such as sunflower book

However, the United States is not a country with happiness in history.From the middle of the 19th century to the first war, Britain is not only the world's premier debt country, but also the British pound is also the main tool for international trade financing. It is like the US dollar now.Catching it over, coupled with the expensive war, under the system of gold, gold is constantly shifted abroad, forcing London to suspend the golden standard system during the World War I, so that the pound's reputation is greatly cut.Although the British after the war, in order to revitalize the investor's confidence, the recovery system system in 1925, industrial exports have long returned to the soul, and the economy cannot continue to support the value of the pound.Soaring.In the end, under the economic confusion in 1931, Britain decided to permanently abandon the gold standard system, and the pound power was ended.

Although the golden standard system has been abolished by former US President Nixon in 1971, it has caused the troubles of gold outflows in Washington, such as the gradual history of the British pound, and the weakening of the US dollar has gradually seen its trajectory.Regardless of whether it is gold or no anchor currency, investors regard the currency of a country as the international reserve currency, depending on at least three points. One is the proportion of the issuer's global trade;The currency was reduced to waste paper overnight; the third was a stable currency value, and these three interlocking factors were all affected by the monetary policy of Washington.The problem is that the current US national strength is not the same as before. The cost of maintaining the US dollar hegemony, most of them will be built in domestic economic inequality and polarization of politics.No matter who will enter the White House after the November election, it cannot ignore the double -edged knife of the US dollar hegemony.