Shi Qiping: Whether China and the United States will burst out of war will explode

Author: Shi Qiping

At this moment, one of the focus of global attention is Sino -US relations, and the most concerned is whether military conflicts will erupt.

At the beginning of the year, I had an article analyzed and judged the situation of the Taiwan Strait, with 1 to 5 as the indicator of the probability of war. Before the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, it was 4, in 1958 (823 guns) and 1996 (missile crisis).It is 2; in 2020, it is 4+.

Professor Allison of Harvard University (the original of the concept of Xiu Xidid's trap) counts the history of human beings for nearly 500 years, with a total of 16 bishes and the second relationship. The probability of evolving to war is 75%, and it is lucky to avoid 25%of the first war.This is digital statistics, and there should be a theoretical analysis behind digital statistics.

Will the war burst?My theoretical analysis depends on: one depends on the strength of both parties. If it is similar, the probability is small (25%) and the gap is large, the probability increases (75%); the second depends on the strategic means.The probability of many means increases; the third depends on political wisdom, and this part can be unable to find it.

The United States' attitude towards China has been looking forward to the early Chinese side, and even willing to be full, but since Trump took office, especially for a while, it is estimated that there should not be many fantasy.In contrast, worry about war, and the atmosphere of facing war is being form quickly.

Looking at the strength of both parties, the strength of China and the United States is definitely weak and strong in terms of global. However, as far as the Western Pacific Ocean at the gate of the Chinese family, it should be a five or five waves.This situation is precisely the largest opponent of China as challenging and threatening the United States hegemony, although the United States has to be removed quickly, but he has hesitated to repeatedly adopt the main explanation of military means.

Looking at the war means in the United States, the Obama era was a re -balance of Asia -Pacific.By Trump came to power and shouted to make the United States great again, reflected a stronger anxiety, so he began to hit China.After three years, look at the United States' means. Although there are many ways to move, the effect is different.The trade war is almost irrelevant. Hong Kong cards and Xinjiang cards have no traces over the water. The more effective is scientific and technological warfare, but they are defeated. Others such as harassing Chinese scientific and technological talents in the United States, tightening visas, and even closing the consulate.Instead, it highlights the embarrassment of Guizhou donkeys.There are two cards in the hands of the United States, which are really powerful. One is the financial card and the other is the war card.

The so -called financial card refers to cutting off SWIFT (US dollar payment system between international banks) and decoupling China and the US dollar.In this trick, the power of power can be dealt with all the enterprises and countries in the world. Only the exceptions of China (the details cannot be described here). Instead, they may also drive fish and help China.beat.

The so -called war cards are excluded first; secondly, if it breaks out, it will be in the Western Pacific, especially the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.The purpose of the United States is to return China to 40 years or at least 20 years ago, so that the United States no longer feels threatened by Chinese usurping.The US Think Tank Land Company has issued a report with China: I dare not think (2018), analyzing and suggesting that in order to achieve the strategic purpose of the United States, a traditional (conventional) local (regional) military conflict may besex.Of course, whether the situation will develop so in the end depends on the third depending on MDash; political wisdom.