Earlier in July, Iran announced that it was negotiating with China a 25 -year agreement covering trade, energy, infrastructure, telecommunications, and even military cooperation.For Iran, the establishment of a strategic partnership with China is at a critical moment.The Iranian government has always faced the dissatisfaction of the people's decline in the domestic economy. The US sanctions and the current coronary virus epidemic have severely damaged the Iranian economy.

To make matters worse, a series of explosions that recently occurred in Iran have deepened their sense of unsustainable regime.These explosions have damaged at least two facilities related to the Iranian nuclear plan and missile plan, and they seem to be part of the overall strategy of the United States and Israel to weaken Iran's strength.

Therefore, for the Iranian government, the news of reaching major agreements with China is a means of distracting to divert attention. It may even maintain the status quo to the US presidential election in November this year.The results of the campaign will determine the trajectory of the US -Iranian relations and the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, that is, the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), and will also affect the presidential election held in Iran in June 2021.

In all fairness, Iran has been reluctant to go too close to any big country in history, and is not willing to accept economic protection.The relationship between Iran and China has become one of the sources of domestic controversy. The Iranian Parliament may refuse to approve the agreement unless a revision to meet certain requirements.

However, since the Trump administration withdrew from JCPOA in 2018 and launched a severe sanction of the maximum pressure to stifle the Iranian regime, the Iranian economy has plummeted.In addition, as the entire regime faces strong opposition from the public, the government of Iranian President Rouhani has been suffering from huge internal pressure.It was announced that it had reached an agreement with China so that the Rouhani government could prove that it did not put all eggs in the western basket.The information released to the Iranian people is that they are not isolated, and they can achieve economic improvement even in the face of US sanctions.

At the international level, Iran has been seeking balance between big powers.In the past 10 years, in order to cope with US diplomacy and economic pressure, Iranian security forces have turned their attention to Russia, and the key economic fields have turned their attention to China, and the Rouhani government has contacted Europe.Nowadays, Sino -US relations are intensely upgraded, and Iran focuses on using China to consolidate the economy to check and balance the United States.Strengthening relations with China can allow Iran to have greater advantages in the future when facing the US and European return or re -ordering JCPOA, and also allows it to respond to opponents such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In contrast, forming a strategic partnership with Iran is full of unknown to China.Although China continues to trade with Iran and invest in Iran's infrastructure, the deepening of relations between the two countries may arouse American anger at this critical and sensitive diplomacy moment.China may be sanctioned by the United States and loses some opportunities to enter the US market (the size of the US market is far greater than Iran).It is not surprising that compared to Iranian officials, Chinese officials are relatively silent about negotiations.Moreover, China does not want to destroy its regional partnership with Israel or Saudi Arabia. The latter two are currently conducting a war -fighting war with Iran and a secret operation against Iran.

Nevertheless, China clearly believes that it has some value with Iran's comprehensive agreement.Iran is a huge and important regional action party. It has huge energy resources and economic potential. It is a natural candidate country proposed by China to the Belt and Road Initiative.

China has purchased discounted oil from Iran. For the world's largest energy consumer country, this is not a trivial benefit.China has also become a key trading partner for Iran, including the main supply of heavy machinery and manufacturing products.

More widely, China has steadily advanced its interests in West Asia in the past 10 years.It is the main initiative of the regional Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which has invested more than $ 57 billion in Pakistan.As the United States is ready to leave Afghanistan and establish a partnership with Iran, it will allow China to control the strategic corridor from Central Asia to the Arabia.

As part of this expansion, China can even control the port of Chabahar, Iran.China's main opponent in Asia has been developing this port to respond to the port of Gwadar, Pakistan, which is nearly developed in China.The port of Chabhar allowed India to bypass its other competitor Pakistan to trade with Central Asia.

However, although the importance of Chabahar's port is well known, US sanctions are forcing India to leave the port of Chabhar, which disappointed Iran.In fact, it is reported that Iran has forced India to withdraw from Pakistan's railway projects connected to Afghanistan and Central Asia.Soon after China and Iran announced their preliminary agreement, this rupture came.

The recent conflict between the China -India border shows how important China attaches its footprint in West Asia.In addition to opening the gate of controlling Chabhar and monopoly to Central Asia, the agreement seems to provide China with opportunities to develop naval facilities in Oman Bay.Although the United States has long been hoping to transfer attention from the Middle East to China for a long time, the upcoming China -Iranian agreement reminds us that these two stages are by no means separate.

The United States has increased pressure on China and Iran, prompting the two countries to form a united front.Although the distance between China and Iran's relationship has become a new axis, it is too early, but recent negotiations show that such arrangements are possible.

US diplomatic decision makers should notice this.The United States must enter a wedge between China and Iran, and this is necessary to determine whose threat is greater.The United States may just want to leave the Middle East forever.But the fact is that the strategic competition with China will not only be staged in East Asia.

(Author Vali NASR is Johns Middot; Professor of Middle East Research and International Research and International Research Institute of Holpkins University. Avane Tabatabai is a senior researcher at the Middle East Researcher of the Macro Foundation in the German Marshall Foundation in the United States, a senior researcher at the School of International and Public Affairs University of Columbia University.)

English Title: China Plays The Iran Card

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.