Turning in the Time Language
According to economists, a latest study at the University of Washington, USA shows that the global population will reach its peak in 2064, and then gradually declines.The global population of 2100 was estimated to be 8.9 billion, which was lower than the United Nations estimated 10.9 billion.Regardless of the specific figures, the general trend here is that with the improvement of economic development and education, women's fertility rates will accelerate; and from a long -term perspective, the only region where the net population will grow is the African continent south of the Sarahra Desert.
This study pointed out that many countries will have a negative growth of more than halves, especially the current population of China, the current largest country, will fall from 1.6 billion to 730 million at the end of the century.Such a significant decrease in population is not the gospel to China's long -term economic and social development.
This is because China's population is about to occur, and it is not the natural consequences of economic and educational development, but mainly from the only child policy that began to enforce the enforcement in the 1970s.This lack of visionary short -term policy, once social inertia is formed, it can not be adjusted and reversed for a long time.
In recent years, Beijing has rapidly changed to comprehensive opening up, and even encouraging the rapid turn of the second child. However, China's birth rate continues to decline every year. From 12.1 babies per 1,000 in 2017, it has fallen to 11.8 in 2019, and 11.4 is expected to be in 2020.This will not only make China facing the fault of labor shortage, but also long -term dragging on the normal development of the economy.
Furthermore, a policy of Beijing was only targeted at the Han nationality. As a result, the proportion of Han people in the border area declined and became a long -term threat to maintain stability.Recently, Beijing has stopped the short -sighted policy of preferential treatment of ethnic minorities, and has also caused high -profile allegations of China's high -profile alleged sterilization of Chinese minority magazines.
The population not only provides labor for production, but also represents consumer demand for the economy.By the current level of development in China, future economic growth is mainly promoted by consumption. In particular, under the situation where globalization is facing a wave of population, domestic demand will only become an increasingly important economic driving force.
As the coronal virus was raging, many people believed that the decline in the United States could not be avoided, and the Chinese century was coming.But see different prospects from the population trend.Although the fertility rate of women in the United States and Chinese is 1.7, which is far lower than the 2.1 that maintains the population unchanged.However, the United States and Canada, Australia and other countries can maintain a small number of Western countries that have slowly growing their population through immigration policies.
I pointed out many years ago: In order to maintain the prosperity of the country, China should have a long -term plan to absorb foreign immigrants. The population of Southeast Asia is the first choice.This has appeared in an informal in the border area of China and Vietnam.However, the cultural attraction and moral appeal of Changan in the period of the Han and Tang dynasties were the weakness of the Beijing system.In recent years, the sharp decline in the promotion of the Hong Kong and Taiwan regions in recent years, it is difficult to imagine that China will have the ability to absorb a large number of non -ethnic cultural furnaces like Uncle Sam.
In view of the prospect of such population and the moral appeal in the neighboring area, a column comment published a few days ago by the New York Times, pointing out that many people think that the Chinese century (Chinese Century), which is about to dominate the world, may only become China's ten in the end.Chinese Decade, full of people.
(The author is engaged in scientific research in North America)
