The current Sino -US relations can probably use Nietzsche's famous sentences when you look at the abyss, the abyss is also described by you, but no one knows the depth and breadth of the abyss.

On July 21, the United States suddenly asked the Chinese Consulate General in Houston to close within 72 hours without warning.This is an action that has never been before the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979. The Chinese side has been characterized by political provocations, and four days later, the United States Consulate General in Chengdu was closed.How to understand this move?The author sort out limited known information and talk about some personal opinions.

First of all, the US official explanation has a variety of claims, with different calibers.Earlier on July 22, a statement in an email statement of the US State Department spokesman Morgan Ortagus was to protect the intellectual property and private information of Americans.On the same day, the White House adviser Kelishi Middot; Ellyanne Elizabeth Conway said that President Trump had been dissatisfied with the situation of Chinese treatment in China, and the virus epidemic had killed 140,000 Americans.

The American Assistant Secretary of State David David Middot; RMIDDOT; David R. Stilwell, in the New York Times, stated that the Chinese consulate in Houston has a history of engaging in subversive activities and is a seizure of Chinese scientific research achievements.

Trump said in a press conference of the epidemic that it is always possible to close more Chinese consulates in the United States.He said: We believe that the Chinese consulate in Houston has a fire. I think they should be burning documents or paper categories, and their move makes me curious about the content of those documents.Trump did not explain why it was closed in essence, he said that fire and future.

It must be paid attention to that the Secretary of State Pompeo, the leader of the United States in the United States at the time of the incident, visited Europe in Europe and was not in the United States. It was unlikely that such major matters to close important national diplomacy resident institutions were unlikely to be decided by assistants.And recently, senior officials of the Trump administration seem to be lining up to attack China. If this matter is determined by Pompeo, he can put forward in a recent speech to enhance the power of the speech.

At the technical level, diplomatic talks are equal. China has stated that it will make a legitimate and necessary response. It is the first step in the United States to close the Consulate General in Chengdu.The United States in Wuhan, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang, and Hong Kong in China.In the United States, there are five consulates: Houston, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago.You come and fight in this closed museum. China will not suffer in terms of quantity, and it will also hurt the interests of the United States in the diplomatic field.In short, it is not conducive to the State Council represented by Pompeo.

The author's personal comprehensive research and judgment, this matter is likely to be Trump himself, and only a small -scale consultant circle was known before decision. This is probably the reason why the US official explaining chaos after the incident.Trump probably has a drawer with various drafts of Chinese attacks, but why did he choose to close the Chinese Consulate General in Houston at this time?

Secondly, why is Houston selected in the five Chinese consulates?There are currently three sayings here: First, the Consulate General in Houston was the first consulate established by China in the United States after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979.In the past, the first one was the first level today, with significant symbolic significance.The author thinks that this is probably a bit more apparent.Then there was an article on July 22, the New York Times that it was the Sisters Consulate in the Wuhan Consulate in China, which was uncertain.The New York Times may want to associate the Consulate General in the Houston in the United States and the US Consulate General in China.

Third, Trump, who needs to pay special attention to, strives to sway the state election.Lu Xiang, an expert in the American Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that most of the states covered by the Houston Consulate General were Republican Red State.Among them, Texas was originally a standard Republican Red State, but at present, the number of diagnostic diagnosis in the state has continued to rise in the state, which led to the decline in Trump's support in the state.Become a swing state.Therefore, Trump may use the way to close Houston to transfer domestic attention and change his election in the state.According to this statement, this move is Trump's tactical actions for Swinging State, which has re -coincided with the long -term strategy of hardliners in China.

The author found that it can be said that it is a poll from the Ninnipiac University University in the United States from July 16th to 20th. If the presidential election is held today, 45%of Texas voters will be held.Voting to Biden, 44%of people support Trump, that is to say, Bayeng has hoped to win in Dezhou (the 2012 election Romney won Obama at 16 points in Dezhou;Nine points in Dezhou won Hillary).Texas is the second state of the world with 38 elections, only less than 55 California.

The New York Times article mentioned earlier also pointed out that President Trump's campaign strategist was worried about his failure to fight the epidemic, and this was intended to send a comprehensive anti -China signal to his supporters.In combination with this, the White House adviser Kelian Middot; Conway, who spoke in this matter, is actually very not simple.She is an expert in campaign strategists and polls. It is the last campaign manager in Trump's last election.

Kelian Middot; Conway also said in his voice: The president is very clear that on the one hand, we have reached a written trade agreement that can be fully executed, on the other hand, it will take tough operations.The author translates, that is, Trump's assessment before shooting, thinking that the closing of the library will not affect the implementation of the first phase of the Sino -US economic and trade agreement that is very important for its agricultural supporters.

There are still three months before the US election. It is generally believed that Sino -US relations will be stormy during this period of time. Among them, multiple profit relationships are deeply intertwined. Some are already conspiracy.How to be calm and calm?

I personally suggest that the butterfly effect of changes in the changes in the election of the United States election is closely understood, and from this perspective to understand some of Trump's actions; for him, it is already a big deal for him.The author finally speculated, or in July Texas polls, let Trump select the Chinese Consulate General in Houston in the drawer.

(The author is Nanjing Media)