On July 21, the United States suddenly asked China to close the Consulate General in Houston within 72 hours, and China subsequently asked the United States to close the Consulate General in Chengdu on July 24.The US Secretary of State Pompeo, who was visiting the United Kingdom on July 21 to establish an international alliance to fight against China.The topic of China and the United States in the Cold War 2.0 was once again talked about by many people.
But with the historical idea of reality, it may make us lose their due cognition and alertness to the present and the future.
China was not the Soviet Union that year, and the United States was no longer the United States that year, and the world was not the world of that year.There is no doubt that the concept of the Cold War seems a bit too gentle and static for the current situation and future of Sino -US relations.In fact, China and the United States, which are greater, are now in the huge crisis of contradictions and rapid iterations, conflicts and confrontation and confrontation.
After the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, the two countries had a romantic relationship.With the rapid rise of China and other reasons, the doubts of the United States have significantly enhanced China, and the friction between the two countries has emerged endlessly.Nevertheless, when the heads of state and the United States met in the Anneberg Manor in California in 2013, the main concerns of the United States and the focus that the two sides talked about was the so -called Chinese hackers and network security issues.But in 2018, China and the United States began a trade war, and the previous main problems have become foil.
In the subsequent discounts of Sino -US trade negotiations, issues such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong have also become a hot topic reported by mainstream American media.In 2019, the New York Times alone has an article mentioned in Xinjiang every week, and there are about 400 articles mentioned in Hong Kong.Although according to the latest memoirs from former US national security adviser Bolton, Trump, a businessman, did not care about issues such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong, extensive media reports still provides new elements of the United States' awareness of China.
Sino -US trade conflicts coupled with other incidents in recent years have greatly increased the negative evaluations of the United States on China.A poll of the Poye Research Center in March this year shows that 66%of Americans hold a negative evaluation of China, an increase of nearly 20 percentage points from two years ago, and it is also the highest point in the survey.The changes in public opinion have also introduced the new policy for the United States to China and have created new political needs.
The sudden coronary virus epidemic has exacerbated the confrontation between China and the United States.Trump had appreciated the Chinese government's epidemic treatment for the Sino -US trade agreement, or for his re -election for his election.But when the U.S. epidemic deteriorated rapidly, some of them changed their attitudes to the Chinese side in order to shirk responsibility.
In fact, the epidemic not only hurts China, the United States and the entire world, but also greatly changes the cognition and attitude of the United States and other countries to China.At this time, the focus of hacking trade and other focused issues have become storms, because the stronger Wuyun has shrouded.And all this is far from over, the contradictions and conflicts between China and the United States are constantly emerging and intensified.
We see that the United States further siege Huawei, brewing the accountability law of China's listed companies in the United States, issued a bill on Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and issued a statement on the South China Sea issue.etc.The United States ’fields that suppress China are continuously expanding, and measures are constantly increasing.In addition, high officials such as the US National Security Consultant, the Director of Federal Investigation, the Minister of Justice, and the Secretary of State have recently delivered a speech that has recently criticized China.
Of course, China is also trying to counterattack the United States. Some may hit the other party's pain, but some may be greater than the content.For example, China announced on July 13 that the Xinjiang Human Rights Act sanctioned the four of the United States.Senators Rubyo and Cruz may compete for the president in the future. The Chinese sanctions on their political future may be bonus.
The limitations of certain countermeasures in China are limited by objective conditions, and the available things in their own toolbox may not be very abundant; at the same time, there may be poor technical strategies.Tool of.In addition, there may be a good desire for China to completely break and confront the United States.
In any case, this may expose some of the weaknesses and scruples of China ’s conflict between China and the United States, which has enhanced the United States to enhance confidence and determination to confront or crack down on China.
Some of the words and deeds of the United States may also expose the weakness and problems of the United States.Under the background and self -confidence of China's rise, coupled with other factors, China ’s confrontation and counterattack with the United States may also have different wills and determinations from the past.
Nowadays, the mutual hostility between the two countries is deepening, and the cognition and beliefs that do not die and defend the bottom line and principles are constantly strengthening.
The United States feels that China is constantly penetrating and harming the United States and Western society, and China feels that the United States is constantly curbing and interfering with China.Both sides regard each other as their greatest strategic opponent and think that the ultimate purpose of the other party is to change themselves.
Both sides feel that they are unbearable and confident and capable of counterattacking. They even think that it may be the best, or even the last chance in the confrontation between the two countries.Both sides have no hesitation and determination and confidence in World War I.
At this time, the epidemic and its harm seems to be no longer so important, because more problems have occurred or prominent, and the contradictions and conflicts of the two countries are rapidly intensifying and upgrading.
In the face of an unprecedented crisis, the original communication and coordination mechanism of the two sides seems to have failed or stopped. The officials and the people of the two countries have also increasingly enhanced hostile emotions.Expression has become a kind of political correctness.
In the election year, the stating of competition relative to Hua Tu also has also become a campaign strategy shared by the two -party candidate in the United States.This is full of political manipulation, and it is also giving birth to more Sino -US confrontation.
When negotiations cannot solve the problem, sanctions and anti -sanctions will become an inevitable choice.When sanctions and anti -sanctions cannot force the other party to fight, and contradictions and conflicts continue to increase and upgrade rapidly, resorting to force may become a choice.
When a strong confrontation or even war becomes an option, calling friends and gangs are inevitable.In fact, the anti -China camp led by the United States is becoming increasingly clearer.
Today, two aircraft carriers in the United States have been deployed in the South China Sea and have held the largest military exercise in recent years.Japan and Australia are also preparing for the soldiers and strong army.The United Kingdom also plans to send aircraft carriers to come to hold joint military exercises against China with allies such as the United States and Japan.Some countries in Southeast Asia also have a change.
Of course, there are also Taiwan issues.Shan Yu wants to come to the wind.
Hua Chunying, a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on July 15 that China is not afraid of sanctions. If the United States wants to make waves, it will make the storm more violent!
In fact, the confrontation and conflicts between China and the United States are full of flowers, and an unprecedented storm is whistling.
There may be three reasons why China and the United States have serious confrontation today.First, the foundation and confrontation of ideology and political systems. They are inherent, sometimes even irreconcilable; second, some staged and accidental conflicts and interference, such as imbalances in trade, epidemic and TrumpDangdang; Third, misunderstand each other between the two sides.
The first two reasons are almost not transferred by people's will, and the third is human factors that change the space.As far as China is concerned, there may be more room for improvement to some extent.
For example, on the South China Sea issue, the United States has almost accepted Vietnam,The views and claims of countries such as the Philippines and other countries ignore and ignore some history and facts that are beneficial to China.This is not only related to the interests and prejudice of the United States, but also inadequate communication and dissemination of China.
The New York Times reported a few years ago that the then Chinese Foreign Minister complained to American diplomats privately that China was bullied by small countries on the South China Sea issue.This is undoubtedly a bitter fact, but what China should reflect is why this is the case?How should China change?
In any case, one thing is clear, that is, the current Chinese speeches, expressions, and communication ideas, methods and vocabulary. Although there are certain markets and needs in China, they have the overall diplomatic situation and a wider national interest in China.Negative impact.
Now the relationship between the two countries is rolling and the thunder is roaring.But still hopes that there will be a new weather that can be treated with peace and quietness, and the people of the two countries are treating each other.
(The author is a staff member of a central enterprise in China. He has been a visiting scholar at the University of Berkeley California and Harvard University)
