On July 21, the U.S. State Department requested the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston as a response. On July 24, China announced that it would close the US Consulate General in Chengdu.In this case, the relationship between the two countries has turned sharply.

On July 23, the US Secretary of State Pompeo's speech was regarded by some people's iron curtains in the 21st century.Why does Sino -US relations deteriorate here?Is there any possibility of armed conflict between the two countries?In the long run, can the two countries be returned to good or more opposite?

Although the incident of the Condor Consulate suddenly came suddenly, it was also a certain inevitable after the deterioration of the relationship between China and the United States in recent years.Since the start of the Sino -US trade war, the relationship between the two countries has gradually deteriorated.The United States' actions on the issues of Hong Kong and Xinjiang, especially the sanctions against Chinese officials, have signed a bill for Chinese officials to expand the confrontation between the two countries from the economic and trade field to the human rights field.

The military contest of China and the United States in the South China Sea and the competition for the right to speak in the Asia -Pacific region has also made the strategic interests of the two countries conflicting significantly.What's more fundamentally, China, as the newly -rising world's second power, has a fierce competition with the world's number one power, the United States, and even shows zero -sum game in some areas.

Under the common role of this many factors for several years, it is not surprising that it has just closed the storm in July.Moreover, Trump has just signed the Hong Kong Autonomous Act not long ago to sanction officials who are suspected of destroying Hong Kong autonomy.China has also adopted anti -sanctions measures to impose sanctions on American members active on the issue of Hong Kong.Immediately afterwards, the United States accused the Chinese consulate diplomats assist the espionage.This has become the fuse of the closed museum storm.

In Pompeo's speech on the 23rd, a key issue mentioned that the United States believed that the decades of long -term contact with China had failed. The West, including the United States, must deal with China with a tough attitude and replace the previous contact policy.Closing the storm seems to be the whistle of this policy transformation.

Since the visiting China, whether it is the Carter, Obama era, or the Ragagen -Bush father and son in the ruling period of the right -wing, the United States has adopted a friendly policy to China for various reasons such as against the Soviet Union, and tried to promote changes with contact with contact., Allow China to liberalization.However, due to various reasons, China has achieved great achievements while economic liberalization has not achieved political liberalization.

In recent years, China's domestic politics and foreign policies have undergone great changes, and it is impossible to move towards liberalization.Therefore, the confrontation between China and the United States has become increasingly prominent. Between the two different systems and different civilizations, the increasingly deepening of disbelief is deepening, and the suspicion and grievances are becoming more and more.

Of course, it is national interests that really have a decisive role in the evolution of relations between China and the United States.With the rise of China, the status of the United States has been challenged, and the two sides inevitably have various conflicts of interest.Trump's right -wing government is even more profitable and does not care about human rights issues.

This makes the US policy more tough at the practical level, and specific measures are more direct and strong.China is naturally unwilling to show weakness, trying to fight back.The two behemoths staged a fierce collision.The closed museum storm is a shiny spark splashed out of the two strong collisions.

Will the closed museum storm become the unveiling ceremony of the Cold War of China and the United States?Will the relationship between the two countries worsen as spiral, and even armed conflicts occur?

I don't think so.I mentioned in an article about a previous comment on the Trump's signing of the Hong Kong Autonomous Act.Sexuality and persistence.Trump has no intention of turning over with the Chinese government, so as not to lead to re -election in China's economic revenge.

Of course, Pompeo and other Right -wing characters such as China may really want to take the opportunity to establish a new cold war system against China and fix it through a series of policies and bills.But after all, they are only some members of the American politics. It is unknown whether most members of the two parties can be firmly supported by the two parties.

In the next six months before the election, there are two possibilities for the United States' policy on China.If the pragmatic faction led by Trump, Sino -US relations will not continue to deteriorate within the controlled range, and even actually improve, even if it is still a fierce conflict.

As for the closed museum storm, it will become a diplomatic show that is greater than the substance.For example, Trump expelled 60 Russian diplomats in 2018, but did not affect his own attitude.Conversely, if Pompeo, Rubio, Cruz, etc., have persuaded Trump to have a tough right -wing politician in ideology, or Trump will not interfere with the tough policy that they implement, and Sino -US relations will enter the freezing period.

After the election, if Trump is re -elected, the policies of him or Pompeo and others will continue; if the Democratic Party is governed, it is likely to change in the field and specific policies. For exampleHuman rights issues are preferred, but the tone tone of China will not change.

As for the form of confrontation, most of the competition and conflict in the fields of economy, trade, propaganda, and technology are still the main field.Neither side of the sides will risk the war, even if local armed conflicts will not take the initiative.The vicious cycle of the two nuclear powers knows what kind of consequences will it bring.But for example, the sea and air armed to wipe the gun to get angry, or the conflict of agents is still possible.

In short, with the changes of the domestic government bureaus of China and the United States and the changes in the international situation, China and the United States have stumbled but the era of cooperation is greater than competition.Regardless of the short clouds or thunderstorms of Sino -US relations after the thunder in July, it is difficult to reverse the increasingly upgraded conflicts and opposition between China and the United States in the long run.

(The author is a Chinese strategic analysis magazine writer, international political researcher, writer)