Looking back at history, plague and war are almost twin brothers.

Today, this one has been infected with over 17 million and has died over 670,000. It has a hundred years of difficulty in the plague that affects more than 200 countries around the world. It may still be at the foot of the mountain.The final scale may reach hundreds of millions of population infections worldwide, and millions of deaths will be killed.

Will this plague bring war to humans?The impact of this epidemic on the world can be described by unprecedentedly. If social panic cannot be controlled, the democratic government and the fascist government are almost only separated by a wall.It must be seen that this time is a comprehensive crisis, which is the three -in -one complications of the economic crisis, social panic, and the national governance crisis.A epidemic was exposed to many problems.In such a case, all parties become particularly sensitive.The American crisis is the deepest, and the sense of crisis of the great power is also the strongest. In a country with the strongest military capabilities, it is impossible for countries to consider and release its huge military advantages to achieve their desired goals.

This is also the case in history. When plague and turmoil occurred, it is easy to suspicion and blame each other between countries. At such a sensitive moment, we must prevent extreme populism and nationalism.If you can't avoid, the possibility of war will become greater.

First, the final scale may reach hundreds of millions of population infections worldwide, and millions of deaths will be killed.

Overseas Network, July 30th. Real -time statistics from the WorldOMETER website show that as of 6:30 on July 30, Beijing time, a total of 17135,777 cases of new crown pneumonia were diagnosed in the world, with 66,8346 cumulative death cases.Essence

According to the real -time statistics from WorldOMETER, as of 6:30 on July 30, Beijing time, the United States confirmed a total of 455,032 new crown pneumonia cases, with a total of 15,3395 deaths.Compared with the data of 6:30 the previous day, 5,3689 newly confirmed cases in the United States were added, and 1104 new deaths were added.

According to the latest data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Health on the evening of July 29th local time, 6,9074 new new crown pneumonia were added in the country, the maximum increase in a single day, a total of 255,2265 cases; 1,595 new deaths were added;90134 cases.At present, Brazil's confirmed cases and death cases are still second in the world, second only to the United States.

At about 6:30 on July 30, Beijing time, real -time statistics from the WorldOMETER website showed that 48 countries in Europe have reported 283,2313 new crown pneumonia, and 20,2508 deaths were killed.Data show that the three countries with the largest number of confirmed cases in Europe are Russia, Spain and Britain.

Russian President Putin recently signed a decree on the development goals of the Russian Federal State before 2030 to determine the development goals of Russia before 2030.The decree was signed in July and was also known as the July Act.The July A decree delayed the growth rate of the GDP in China that exceeded the world average of nearly 10 years and gave up the goal of Russia's entry into the top five economies in the world in 2024. This is the global popularity of the new crown pneumonia.Timely active adaptation and strategic adjustment.Affected by the epidemic, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development expects that Russia's domestic GDP this year is expected to decrease by about 4.8%.The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Russian economy will decrease by 6.6%in 2020.

British Prime Minister Boris Middot; Johnson warned that Europe may outbreak the second wave of new crown virus epidemic.German Federal Disease Control Agency Robert Middot; Koch Research Institute (RKI) Director Willer said on the 28th that the number of newly confirmed cases in Germany has increased in the past two weeks. Although Germany has already controlled the epidemic, it is currently nationwide across the country.The trend is heading up.He said it is unclear whether this second wave of epidemic outbreaks began, but there is a possibility of existence.

At about 6:30 on July 30, Beijing time, real -time statistics from the WorldOMETER website showed that 57 countries in Africa reported 893,208 new crown pneumonia diagnosis and 1,8883 deaths.At present, there are 12 countries reporting more than 10,000 cases in Africa. Countries with severe epidemics include South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria.

The latest data released by the official website of the Ministry of Health shows that as of the morning of July 29, local time, the confirmed cases of India's new crown pneumonia rose to 15,31669 cases.In the past 24 hours, there were 4,8513 newly confirmed cases in India, with more than 40,000 cases in 7 consecutive days.There were 768 new deaths and 34,193 deaths.

2. This plague has produced and will continue to produce more war -induced factor.

In the context of the raging global epidemic, if a war broke out, it would be the following five roots of war: First, through the war, he can obtain huge political or economic benefits (such as winning the re -election of the president, obtaining great political interests, obtaining the resources of the other country, etc.)Second, I have already thought about the war that has been chosen for a long time. I have been looking for opportunities and just use this crisis to carry out; third, retaliation of sexual war; fourth is the war that fights for survival.(If the global crisis is caused by the epidemic, the food, vaccine and other resources are competing for life -saving); fifth, the competitive war in the great power.

It can be said that now, the predictive factors of the war of the above five roots have begun to bred one by one. As the crisis of the world's worldwide deepen, these war -induced factors may continue to occur and deepen and strengthen.

The latest version of the World Grain Safety and Nutrition Report predicts that the economic recession caused by the globally due to the epidemic of new crown pneumonia will increase the number of hungry people in 2020 at least about 83 million, and may even increase 132 million.According to the latest report released by Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) on the 28th, nearly 44.8 million people in cities and rural areas of 13 member states are facing the grain crisis, and the epidemic will starve more people.In order to curb the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, African countries have to adopt national blockade to restrict various economic activities, resulting in a rise in the unemployment rate in the country and seriously blocked production activities.Many slums have lost their basic ways to make a living, and they can only rely on social relief.There is a major turmoil and war caused by a food crisis and a humanitarian crisis in Africa.

Earth people know that the United States is the most powerful military power in the world today.The United States is also an extremely fighting country.The Global Times reported on April 17, 2019 that former US President Carter said that in the history of the United States in 242, it has not fought for only 16 years.The United States is now trapped in the quagmire of the epidemic. It is unavailable to prevent the epidemic. The resumption of labor and resurgence continues to cause the epidemic. The economic crisis, the financial crisis, the humanity crisis of the people's livelihood, the political crisis, and the riot riots are coming together.

At present, the prospects of American consumers have also deteriorated.With the re -implementation restrictions on business activities, corporate confidence has been severely hit.After an optimistic mood appeared in June, the monthly survey of the National Independent Enterprise Alliance showed that 23%of the respondents said in early July that they may go bankrupt within 6 months.As more and more companies are facing the pressure of cash depletion, the source of income from American consumers is facing increasing threats.

Just as the unemployed data and the attitude of the company are pessimistic, the multiple epidemic assistance measures in the Care Act issued in March will also expire, especially the US $ 600 federal subsidy for the weekly weekly federal subsidies will stop at the end of July at the end of July.The distribution is expected to affect the livelihood of tens of millions of Americans.According to a new round of rescue proposals released by the Republicans of the Senate on July 27, Republicans plan to cut federal unemployment subsidies.If the Democratic Republican parties have reached a compromise on the unemployment subsidy plan, consumer expenditure will face further blows.

There is no solution to the resumption of work and the unemployment. A total of 36 million people in the United States have applied for unemployment relief, accounting for about 20%of the United States.For the United States, unemployment is more important than epidemic.US Congress CBO-CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET Office in the World Doomsday ReportThe Chinese warning said that the coronary virus will destroy the 40%economy, and the US April-June GDP plummeted by about 40%year-on-year.A major problem in the US economy is debt. The government and family debt are high, and the disparity between the rich and the poor in the United States is also very serious.

The people's lives have no solution, and the consumption that supports the US economy has almost collapsed.The United States is the world's first consumer country. Among the total retail sales of American social consumer goods in 2019 announced by the U.S. Census Bureau, consumer data accounts for 32.21%of the US GDP, which is one -third of GDP.

If the US economy has no consumption, what else is there in the US economy?Not only did the government bare debt, but the US residential family sector also had more confidence in maintaining high consumption.According to the New York Federal Reserve, the total liabilities of the United States' family liabilities in 2019 reached US $ 1.415 trillion.This is also the first time that US residents' debt has exceeded the $ 14 trillion mark.The total population in the United States is 330 million. If the average family of 4 people per American family is calculated, the average family liabilities are as high as $ 171,500.Therefore, we see that when the epidemic of new crown pneumonians broke out and the United States issued a suspension of home isolation policy, many American people entered the stage of non -talk.Not only are you solved at home for three meals a day, but also various insurances, mortgages, real estate taxes, rent, etc. at this time, you lose your job because of stopping work and suspension, which means losing income.Although applying for unemployment relief funds can solve some problems, the government can also solve some problems. Delaying bill payment can also solve some of the problems in front of you, but the debt that is owed in the end still needs to be repaid.From a family perspective, paying for money is only to solve the problem of living in front of you. There is no need to wander on the streets. However, as family debt has accumulated more and more, the future pressure on repayment increases sharply, and the blow to ordinary American families is also huge.

U.S. Political Analysts, Ded Galen, said that if the epidemic is unable to control the epidemic in recent months, in the US presidential election in November, it will be the darkest time of the US President.At that time, Bush could break the curse of Bush to achieve re -election, and supported the records of Afghanistan and the Iraq war.Although the current president of the United States does not like Bush and does not like Bush, he knows that Bush's strategy of war has the most direct and effective strategy.If the rabbit is in a hurry, you will bite people, and the dog will jump the wall when you are in a hurry!The outbreak of the new coronary virus in the United States is not a disaster in the United States, but the disaster of the President of the United States. At the time of despair, it has been self -defeating the US president of the US President in order to re -election.Start war to the outside world.

If the development of the epidemic has led to Trump's confidence in the loss of re -election to have a huge steps down, it may be the biggest detonation point that stimulates Trump's choice of considering war.If the epidemic continues to be upgraded, it will seriously affect the election, so that Trump will think that he will end his political career. In order to re -election, the president of the businessman will be very likely to be courageous. It will not be ruled out that the appropriate object will launch war and condense support.Transfer internal contradictions and achieve reelection!

The way capitalist solving problems is always particularly rude and brutal.From the perspective of American history, Roosevelt's New Deal did not solve the Great Depression in the US economy from its root. What really caused the rapid development of the US economy was the arrival of World War II.The outbreak of the war made the American industry a hard work, allowing its economy to recover.

Third, even if Trump did not launch a war for re -election, as the epidemic influence may be deepened, the US government still has a great possibility that war to transfer domestic contradictions to seize the benefits of aggression.

In order to re -election, Trump has affected the control of the epidemic and has a significant responsibility.Today, Trump's internal vitality of the transfer of responsibility to transfer conflicts and condense support is strong.The presidential election of the United States is coming, but the new crown pneumonia is ruthlessly raging in the United States. The world's first power in the past has lost its domineering and strong image and has become the most severe area of the epidemic.

The president of the United States is elected by the election or the election group. As long as Trump's interests meet these electorals or election groups, Trump can sit in the position of the president firmly, which means that the people at the bottom cannot affect the US elections at all.Many people in the United States can clearly see the urgent behavior that Trump wants to be re -elected, which has caused the polarization of local politics in the United States today. This kind of polarization can see the relationship between the US government and the states from the epidemic situation.Out, now basically, the US government does what the US government wants to do, and the states are thinking about states, and even rumors that some states want independent!

When the US Presidential Election Sunday was countless for 100 days, a number of polls on the day showed that the Democratic Presidential candidate Biden's support in Michigan, Florida and Arizona all surpassed President Trump. In the 2016 election, these threeThe key states were won by Trump.According to the polls conducted by SSRS commissioned by SSRS commissioned by the United States CNN (CNN), Biden's support rate among voters in Arizona is 49%, which is higher than Trump's 45%.The joint polls of the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) and Marist College also showed that Biden's support in Arizona has increased from 45%to 50%.CNN polls show that in Michigan, Bayeng and Trump's support rates are 51%and 46%, respectively; Columbia Broadcasting Corporation (CBS) and YOUGOV polls show that Bayeng leads six percentage points in Trump in the state.EssenceAccording to CNN, Biden also led 46%of Trump's 46%in Florida with 51%support.Polls pointed out that Trump's way of responding to crown disease and the impact of the epidemic on the economy is a major reason for him to lag behind Biden.

China and the United States are different.There are houses in China, and many people do not have mortgages.However, almost all Americans have house loans, and they have to pay real estate taxes, and there is no savings, so it is difficult for Americans to support it for a long time after losing their jobs.When how much is the U.S. unemployment rate, it will cause turmoil. How terrible the United States turmoil? If the unemployment data is fully disclosed to the people, if it reaches about 20%or even more and it continues, society may face collapse.Most Americans are ordinary civilians. These people have significant characteristics. One is advanced consumption and does not like to save money.The other is the legal gun.When the new crown virus broke out, the Americans had begun to prepare for turmoil. They not only snapped food and daily necessities, but also purchased guns and ammunition!The rise in unemployment rate and the increase in the number of new crowns will cause a great stagnation of the US economy.According to statistics, the economic depression that occurred in 1929 was more than 20 years backward.Some experts say that the new crown will cause the United States to have a serious economic crisis than the Great Depression. It is conceivable that the US economy will retreat.As a superpower with the largest world economy, serious problems in the US economy will cause serious problems in the world economic system.From the most optimistic perspective, it is likely to have a global economic crisis.

As the Trump administration has been suffering the huge pressure since taking office, war sometimes has temporarily resolved the contradictions in front of you.However, even if Trump did not launch a war for re -election, as the epidemic affected may be deepened, the US government still existed in a great possibility of launching war to transfer domestic contradictions to seize the benefits of aggression.The new U.S. government after the election may be the biggest initiator of the war.Start a war.On the one hand, it shifted the attention of the American people, relieved its internal contradictions, and stimulated the development of the American industry on the one hand.Although this is obviously unfair to other countries, countries around the world must be alert to the behavior of American dog jumping walls.

Countries around the world should deal with the world economy brought about by the collapse of the US economy, and at the same time, they must also be alert to the US government and the next government fully released the behavior of US military advantages and military forces to launch war.

Fourth, China should prevent the possibility of war involving its own.Hundreds of nuclear arsenal may have been difficult to curb the impulse to the American war.

Each war is a consumption domain. If the upcoming government in the United States, or the US government after the election, chose a small and medium -sized country to launch the war to alleviate its internal contradictions and stimulate the American industry and economy, which will help transfer to ChinaThe focus of attention is conducive to China's continued development and rise, which will be ChinaThe time to win less than a few years will be a good peaceful development strategy, and the United States will be trapped into the quagmire for a while to suppress China for a while.

However, China must also prevent the United States from selecting the targets of the war as China. The root cause of the American war goal as China is two points: first, it can alleviate its internal contradictions and stimulate the American industry and economy.China, eliminating the threat of the world's hegemon.

China does not really think that hundreds of nuclear weapons can scare the United States with the world's most powerful military strength and the most powerful nuclear force. We must not naive that we have hundreds of nuclear weapons to restless.If you have this consciousness, it may be the biggest situation.From the premise of the latest report of the United States Rand Corporation and China MDASH; premise that you can not dare to think about it.Local.This preset shows that the hundreds of nuclear weapons we have at all can not curb the desire of the United States for the launch of China's war, which shows that China's nuclear deterrence has not made them dare not have the current situation of the Chinese war.The premise of this report is as follows:

We assume that the Sino -US war is conventional and regional. It is mainly launched by water surface and underwater ships, air fighters and missiles, as well as space and network confrontation.We assume that the war was held in East Asia, including potential hotspots between China and the United States and the residence of all Chinese forces.The long -distance military deployment and continuous follow -up of the two sides will turn most of the Western Pacific regions into a battlefield and bring serious economic consequences.The two sides are unlikely to use nuclear weapons. Even if there is a fierce armed conflict, neither the two sides will not think that their losses and prospects are so fierce that they will use nuclear weapons to fight revenge first.Considering China's limited military strength, we assume that China will not attack the United States, except for cyber warfare.On the contrary, the United States' non -nuclear weapon strike coverage will be widely covered.We are limited to the research period from 2015 to 2025.

From the premise of the latest report of the United States Rand Corporation and China in war with China; premise that you can see what you dare not think: China ’s nuclear deterrence is not enough to stretch the US military strategy’ s desire to the China.Among them.The US military strategy is still in the huge expectations and hope of defeating China's great advantages to defeat China's great advantages.This is an extremely dangerous signal.If we think that there are hundreds of nuclear weapons in the United States that dare not provoke us, then this is the psychological asymmetry of the military strategy of the two countries, and war is often caused by this psychological prediction asymmetry.

China has not disclosed the official information about the size of the nuclear arsenal, and it may not be announced in the expected future.China does not discuss the scale and deployment of nuclear arsenal. Most of the Chinese nuclear arsenal information provided by most Western sources is just unable to speculate on the marginal.Western research institutions, such as Stockholm International Institute of Peace and London International Strategy Institute, believe that China has no more than 250 nuclear warheads.

If the Chinese nuclear arsenal is evaluated from the perspective of production capacity, it can have at least thousands of nuclear warheads, or even tens of thousands of pieces.China's nuclear industry can easily guarantee this production scale.China's first nuclear test was conducted in 1964.Many media in the West and Russia have reprinted the number of 250.Pakistan's scientific research and production capacity cannot be compared with China, but 110 nuclear warheads can be created in 13 years.

The author believes that China is indeed necessary. If you want to various ways, vigorously improve your nuclear deterrent ability. If there is a sufficient number of nuclear weapons that deterred in American ambitions, you may wish to disclose data on the world.If there are not enough nuclear weapons, you may wish to quietly start the production capacity and let the world dare to move the country to launch the country of war against China, and no longer ponder its advantages of its strong conventional military forces.

Text: Peng Shengyu

Strategic Researcher, International Financial Forum IFF Special Researcher