Zheng Hao: There is a conflict between China and the United States in the South China

Zheng Hao

A few days ago, US Secretary of State Pompeo issued a strong statement that it not only clearly denied that China had sovereignty over the South China Sea, but also said that the international community would not allow China to take the South China Sea as its marine empire.

In the statement, Pompeo first changed the neutral position of the US government on the South China Sea issue for the first time.Anti -behavior harms the sovereignty of Southeast Asian countries.

The new statement of the South China Sea issue of the US government, and the recent frequent military operations of the US military in the South China Sea, is worrying, whether the Chinese and the United States may break out of maritime military conflicts.This problem has its urgency and is worth pondering.

Judging from the overall situation of the South China Sea in the first half of 2020, there is indeed a more turbulent and tense situation than before.These include: in terms of rights protection in the sea, Chinese maritime police vessels with Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia have repeatedly chased, intercepted, or confrontation, and some fishing vessels were collided and knocked out. In terms of administrative jurisdiction, April, The Chinese government announced the establishment of Xisha District and Nansha District, Sansha City, Hainan Province, which was strongly protested by the Vietnamese government. In terms of military activities, in addition to China ’s increase in military exercises, the United States recently dispatched two aircraft carriers to South China Sea to exercise.The machine and strategic bomber are frequently entering and leaving the South China Sea, and have unprecedented military pressure on China; in terms of diplomatic negotiations, the negotiations between China and the Asian Sea Code (COC) are mainly China and the Asian Simpan.

Since the first round of reviews of the single consultation of the textual draft of China and the Asian Security Code in 2018, there has been no breakthrough progress.In accordance with the timetable for completing the standard negotiations within the three years in advance, there are currently less than 16 months left. Whether the guidelines can be signed as scheduled are still difficult challenges.

Due to the changes in these four aspects, there are no signs of relief, so the situation in the South China Sea has attracted widespread attention in the future.Among them, the discussion of whether the two military conflicts broke out in the South China Sea in the South China Sea are even more endless.Some opinions believe that despite the upgrading of the tension of South China Sea, the conflict between the Sino -US outbreak is still far from each other.

For example, Middot, former intelligence officer of the U.S. Marine Corps; Litt believes that some fanatical people regard Pompeo's statement as a legal basis for Chinese martial arts, but the facts areIt is impossible to successfully implement military operations in the South China Sea.

Russian military expert Alexehdot; Leonkov pointed out that all the decisions in the United States must be based on the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait.The south to the world has a significant impact, but the United States does not have enough power to control the South China Sea for a long time.Therefore, it is expected that there will be no major confrontation between China and the United States in the South China Sea in the future.

The author has reserved this.In fact, as long as you see that the recent US military operations and the relationship between the Chinese and American armed forces, it is not difficult to expect the situation in the South China Sea to slide to the edge of the conflict.

First of all, from the recent action of the U.S. military, after the two US aircraft carrier strike group entered the South China Sea exercises in early July, they drove into the South China Sea again on July 17.The two US aircraft carrier strike groups enter a certain area, which are usually considered to be standard combat configurations. Even if they are not combat, they will be considered to be a corresponding military operation for the U.S. military for the tension in this region.

In addition, the U.S. E-8C reconnaissance aircraft and B-52 strategic bomber continued to enter the South China Sea.The E-8C reconnaissance aircraft has implemented close reconnaissance on the coast of Hainan and Guangdong, and it is only 134 kilometers away from Guangdong coast.Regarding the actions of the U.S. military, China not only monitored the whole process of sea and air, but also conducted practical exercises in related waters.The increase in contact opportunities for the two armies also added risks to possible misunderstandings and misjudgments.

Secondly, judging from the role of the communication mechanism of China and the United States, in the case of the deterioration of Sino -US relations, the relationship between the two Sino -US armed forces is also difficult to maintain normal communication. The relevant consensus reached in the past may have become history.In terms of the South China Sea, in November 2014, the Chinese and American armies have achieved major progress in building crisis prevention and management mechanisms. The main sign is to sign a memorandum of understanding and the migrants of the trust measures and the Mechanism of the trust measures and about the sea.Memorandum of understanding of safety behavior criteria.

In 2015, the Chinese and American armed forces added the attachment to the two forgive memorandum of understanding of the military crisis and the safety behavior of the safety behavior in the air, and agreed to negotiate with other attachments.However, with the heating situation of the South China Sea, China and the United States seem to be difficult to comply with relevant consensus. Especially when the relationship between the current two countries is in a state of mutual matters, the mutual hostility of the two armies will only increase and it will not decrease.It must be pointed out that there is a essential difference between the relationship between the two Sino -US military relations and the economic and trade relations between China and the United States.

The Chinese and American armies are independent and do not exist in each other.Therefore, when the two countries are hostile, the Chinese and American armed forces are not friendly.At present, the role of the communication and control of the two armies of the Chinese and American armies can be considered weakened, otherwise there will be no current tension between the South China Sea.This will lead to the possibility of conflict in the lack of constraints.

Finally, from the age of the presidential election, Trump's re -election can be full of variables as expected.In an exclusive interview with the US media a few days ago, he did not promise to accept the results of the defeat.This is very worrying.If the election is defeated, during the end of the preliminary election on November 5 this year, and until January 2021, the newly elected president's oath of employment will not be ruled out that Trump may adopt non -normal operations to continue to control the president.Among them, technically, it is used to declare the domestic crisis or feasible ways to declare war.

This year's epidemic has a great negative impact on Trump's re -election. It was originally a high probability event that Trump's successful re -election has become slim due to the sudden epidemic.Therefore, for Trump who is eager to re -election again, it is not important to do, and what is important is what else cannot be done.In the political circle of the U.S. hawks, the possibility and consequences of military conflicts that are extensively discussed with China's outbreak of the outbreak of China are no longer secret.The problem is the timing of timing, strength and duration.

The well -known American scholar Samuel Middot; Huntington had bold assumptions in the conflict of civilization published in 1996 and the reconstruction of world order. The next military conflict between the big nations will explode in the South China Sea in 2010: the United States to the South China SeaThe aircraft carrier attack group was sent to protect Vietnam from being invaded by China, and China condemned the United States to violate the sovereignty of the South China Sea and launch an attack on the US ship.

I hope Huntington's imagination 25 years ago would not be set up.

The author is a senior current affairs commentator of Phoenix Satellite TV

Visit scholar in Brukins, USA

Since the first round of reviews of the single consultation of the textual draft of China and the Asian Security Code in 2018, there has been no breakthrough progress.In accordance with the timetable for completing the standard negotiations within the three years in advance, there are currently less than 16 months left. Whether the guidelines can be signed as scheduled are still difficult challenges.