01 Viewpoint

With the increasing wrestling of China and the United States recently, in addition to the opposite tit of trade and technology, the two countries have become increasingly increased in geopolitics, and even to the level of seeking might meet.On Wednesday (22nd), the United States asked China to close Houston's Consulate General in the United States within three days, and it was more likely to stimulate the intense relations between the two countries again.In the past, many people believed that the cost of war between China and the United States was too great, and the possibility of hot war between the two under realism was not much.But after the situation was fermented, the current public opinion seemed to be not so far away from us.Even recently, the relevant stocks of domestic military enterprises have reversed the long -bear violence for many years.While the situation was so tight, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper actually took the initiative to visit China before the end of the year and discuss how to cooperate in the common interests of China and the United States.What is the intention of the US military layout?

Sino -US military conflict probability rises

Since the beginning of this year, Sino -US relations, which have already fallen into a low tide, have ushered in new challenges.The frictions of China and the United States in several geopolitical issues are increasing, and even the level of even military experts is increasing.On the one hand, the poor cross -strait situation has gradually heated up due to the new crown pneumonia's epidemic at the beginning of the year, and the voices of Wu Tong Taiwan have gradually increased in China.The United States has also increased the movements of Taiwan as a resistance to China. It includes the Taiwan -US relations law that increases Taiwan and the United States.Military intervention in the Taiwan Strait War.On the other hand, the debate between China and the United States in the South China Sea has also increasing.In addition to the consistently sent warships to the South China Sea to preach its so -called freedom of navigation, recently, it has issued more rare issues, which has rebuked China's sovereignty on the sovereignty of the South China Sea Islands, which further heat up the situation in the South China Sea.

In addition to the direct military conflict of China and the United States.Recently, the territorial disputes in China and neighboring countries have also seen the United States' waves.For example, in the near -month conflict between China and India, the United States expressed its support for India and accusing China as expansionism.On the other side, the sovereignty disputes on the Diaoyu Islands on the other side also saw the US intervention from time to time.From all aspects, the atmosphere of military conflicts is getting higher and higher, and it is possible to reach the level of the hot war.

In addition to the superficial military conflict, many comments began to notice that the United States is increasingly likely to use war as the ultimate killer to suppress China.After experiencing a few years of trade war, and after the new crown epidemic frustration, the high insight has begun to discover that in terms of the current national strength of the United States, there is no effective means to comprehensively suppress China's rise.U.S. President Trump recently claimed that the United States has not interested in trade agreements with China in the second stage of China. In addition to his strength to China, it is largely that the United States' discovery of the entire trade war cannot suppress China at all.It takes time to spend time on trade issues. In the end, it may only allow China to exchange time.The United States aware that the suppression of China can no longer wait, and must be treated vigorously.However, in terms of the current national strength of the United States, the traditional economic warfare is not enough to suppress China at all, and the rest that can reverse the situation only for the rest and go to risks to launch a war.There is indeed a conservative American conservative idea, and it is unwilling to watch the United States catch up with China. Therefore, many inferences believe that the more frustrated the United States is, the higher the opportunity of the hot war.

U.S. interviews have not seen sincerity

At this moment, the US Minister of Defense took the initiative to propose to think of China to visit and discuss cooperation before the end of the year, which was indeed surprising.The accident is not just that the relationship between China and the United States is tense.In fact, during the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, the personnel of the two sides would also communicate, so as not to completely cut off the contact.What is really surprised is the details of access.

Esper proposed that he wanted to visit China by the end of this year, and two years were more puzzling.One is that Esper's proposal to visit China seems to be a bit anti -Lord as a guest, as if he took the initiative to ask the other party to invite himself to be a guest.It must be considered that the security dialogue between China and the United States has stopped for a while, and the last interaction was in 2018.At that time, the US Secretary of Defense was Jim Mattis and the Chinese Defense Minister Wei Feng and the mutual visits, and then conducted a second round of Sino -US foreign security dialogue in November.However, since 2019, Sino -US security dialogue has gradually been small. The current US defense leader Esper has only visited China with Wei Fenghe's neutral Thailand in November last year.

On the other hand, the US election is coming. According to the election, Trump must not be called optimism.Esper's selection time is a bit strange.The generalization is that even if you want to visit China, you should generally wait for the decision after the election dust is settled.If Trump really cannot be re -elected, Esper's time to visit China at the end of the year may be less than one or two months after his departure.Although the major trend of China -US wrestling has not only changed greatly due to the renewal, after all, it is so short, and how can it be more representative by the next presidential cabinet. Why not be anxious to visit China one or two months in advance?

In addition, although the United States has proposed an interview, it has continued to attack China in all aspects, and even asked to close the extremely tough moves such as the consulate and other diplomatic relations.It is likely that the intentions of the United States just shirk the problem to China.Although the United States is quite interested in war, in today's world, active war is always famous, and China is a powerful country. If the United States insists on creating problems, it will be quite weak in terms of position.The United States' interview gives people an impression of desire to cool down and negotiate, but it is constantly provoking China. Once a war broke out, the United States can promote their trials in diplomacy.If China is unwilling to meet, the United States can propagate that China refuses to talk.The whole visit is likely to be just a weasel to the chicken.China must deal with it carefully to avoid falling into the trap in the United States.