Recently, many people mistakenly believe that after the first wave of coronary virus epidemic in the world slowed down, the second wave of epidemic began to usher in.This view first failed to ignore the fact that the first wave of epidemic was far from over.In July, the total number of new crowns in the world exceeded 11 million, and the number of deaths exceeded 530,000.
At present, the global general epidemic situation has begun to slow down in local areas, which is also the result of the people of all countries doing its best to respond.Mask, keep social distance, etc.The current slowdown is that the temporary decline after taking these obvious measures does not mean that the first wave of epidemic is over.
After the epidemic is slightly eased, some countries such as home orders and other epidemic prevention measures in some countries such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and Spain are gradually unsealed.As a result, cases of infection increased.Recently, the number of new infections in Tokyo has continued to increase, and the severe situation of adding more than 50 people per day in many days.Japan's large -scale collective infection incidents are constantly.If the number of infections continues to rise, the epidemic will not be effective, and the hospital will be overwhelmed. Tokyo will re -implement more stringent anti -epidemic measures.
The Melbourne government ordered 3,000 residents living in the city's tower to be separated at home for at least five days. This is the strictest home order promulgated by Australia after the crown disease epidemic.Because Spain spread again because of the epidemic, the northern region was sealed, and 200,000 local people were not allowed to leave the residence.
Before the United States celebrated independence, seven states in the south of the United States; MDASH; North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alaska, Missouri, Edhata, and Alabama all set the peak of new diagnosis.In recent days, Florida has added more than 10,000 new cases of infection, setting the highest record since the state of the state's epidemic, and even higher than that in some European countries at the peak of the epidemic, and the highest national record in the country in a single day is even higher.
To this end, many counties in Florida announced on the beach on an independent day to implement a curfew.Arkansas also forced the public to wear masks in public for the first time.The Texas epidemic is also continuously spread. The governor changed his careless attitude towards a mask, and people had to wear masks in public places in Texas.
The seven southern states, which have recently turned straight to the situation, have not been serious in the past few months.The premature relaxation of the epidemic conditions for these states is the main reason why new cases of infection have risen again.To this end, the number of new cases in some US states is declining or stable at a low level; but in other states, the number of new cases is rising.However, this is not the same as that the second wave of epidemics strikes again, because the first wave has not ended at all.Coronary virus is now spread to new areas and people, or spread again in local areas.
The process of epidemic in history is almost always accompanied by the ups and downs of infection cases.However, how to divide the first and second waves of the epidemic, epidemic experts have not reached much consensus.Most experts and sanitation researchers believe that the second wave of outbreaks should meet the two necessary conditions.
First, the virus must be effectively controlled and the range and speed of the virus infection must be reduced to a very low level.Making these marks the end of the epidemic.
Second, the coronary virus reappears, leading to a significant increase in infection cases and hospitalization rates.
At present, European and Asian countries have successfully ended the first wave of epidemic.After the first wave of New Zealand and Iceland, there are basically no coronary virus infections. The community has low levels of communication, and there are very few active cases.
The first wave of the American epidemic has not ended.The U.S. epidemic broke out in March, surged in April, and then began to decline.However, the United States has not controlled infected cases at a low level for a long time.Since mid -June, new cases in the United States have been rising.This shows that new cases are not only because of the increase in testing, but also the result of a wider dissemination.
The Spanish influenza that appeared in 1918 experienced a three -wave epidemic.The epidemic settled in March 1918, but the first stage was not the most violent wave.The first wave disappeared in the summer of that year and after the termination of epidemic prevention measures, people quickly recovered the life before the epidemic.
Starting from the fall of 1918, the second wave of Spanish influenza strike again.The virus during the second wave of epidemic has mutated, and its toxicity and contagiousness exceed the first wave.In the spring of 1919, the third wave of Spanish influenza.The total number of infections in the world exceeds 500 million; the CCP of these three waves of epidemic has seized the lives of more than 50 million people.
There are two deepest lessons in Spain: First, the epidemic is not over, and people quickly relieve epidemic prevention measures and restore normal life.Second, the mutation of the influenza virus genome has stronger toxicity and increased mortality, which has led to double the number of deaths in the second and third waves of epidemic.
Judging from the current research, the coronary virus in this epidemic seems to be more stable than the influenza virus in 1918, so it is unlikely that it will change into a more fatal mutant virus.The characteristics of coronary virus are low mortality, but high infectious.
At present, the most dangerous factor in the epidemic is that the virus variation (the possibility of mutation is small), but the attitude and behavior of people's treatment.Whether people wear masks in public places and implement social distances to avoid littering with others, and staying away from large gatherings is particularly important.Before the development of coronary vaccines or found effective treatment methods, people's sanitary behavior in the second half of this year is the key to avoiding a second wave of epidemic at the end of the year.
The author is a professor at the School of Communication, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania
