Peng Nian: May the ＂list plan＂ promotes Sino -US relations

Peng Nian

At the time of the epidemic, China and the United States were fully fired, and there was a major decision.However, recent wind direction mutations.First, the Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi talked with US Secretary of State Pompeo in Hawaii last month. On the 8th of this month, Le Yucheng, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, attended a video dialogue jointly organized by the Chinese People's Foreign Affairs Association and the American Asian Association.At the time, the general trend of being able to call China and the United States is unstoppable.

Immediately afterwards, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed at the Sino -US think tank media forum held on July 9 that a list should be formed in three aspects: cooperation, dialogue and control to promote cooperation and reduce differences.Wang Yi's list plan really made people shine, and it also made people see the hope of Sino -US relations.

Since Trump came to power, Sino -US disputes have continued, and bilateral relations have been rushed several times.But at a critical juncture, the two sides can always find a way to get a good luck.The outbreak of the coronary virus epidemic and the advent of the American election are changing this kind of high -intensity competition.Under the dual impact of the epidemic and election, the future Sino -US relations are full of sadness and crisis.Because of this, in recent times, the outside world's concerns about the conflict between China and the United States have become heavier, especially considering that China and the United States have held a severe situation in the South China Sea at the same time.

In fact, there has been a common point of view in China for a long time, that is, the US presidential candidate will greatly play the Chinese card for votes.For Trump, who is re -elected, it is clear to play the Chinese card.Moreover, he will only fight more and more thorough than his predecessor.Considering Trump's previous extreme pressure and radical adventure style, China has all reason to believe that he will take risks in the election, thereby breaking the bottom line of Sino -US fighting and not breaking, and dragging Sino -US relations into the abyss.

It is precisely to see the dangerous future of Sino -US relations that China will take the initiative to step on the brakes in a timely manner, hoping to stop the poor situation of continuous decline in Sino -US relations.This time, high -level Chinese diplomacy has issued a clear signal, and pushing Sino -US cooperation is the most powerful evidence.This has also established a period of time in the following time, especially before the completion of the US election, China's main foundation for the US policy.

Of course, China chooses to step on the brakes at this time, which is also closely related to the controlling situation of the domestic epidemic situation, the gradual recovery of the economy, and the easing of the Chinese and Indian border conflicts.It should be said that in the context of the slowdown of the internal and external environment, China does not need to relieve stress by adopting the United States. Instead, it has more confidence and energy to ease relations with the United States and create a stable environment for domestic restoration development.In addition, the more you can ease Sino -US relations earlier, the more you hope to stabilize the external environment of China.This can also explain why China takes the initiative to go to military soldiers and actively promote Sino -US relations.

This time, the list plan proposed by China can be described as the right medicine, and it is aimed at Trump's unique style of acting.In fact, Trump, known for savvy businessmen, pays more attention to the actual income that can be touched and visible.For example, Trump often likes to show off political achievements with numbers (especially stock markets).This determines that dealing with Trump must be pragmatic and not be able to do nothing.

Therefore, through the list formula, let Trump see the specific income and pay costs, which will help improve his desire to alleviate Sino -US relations.In this sense, China's list plan not only releases sufficient goodwill and sincerity of China, but also caters to Trump's greedy and profitable hobbies.

But the question is, will Trump take the move?I discussed one by one with the three lists proposed by Wang Yi.First of all, the first is a cooperation list, which clarifies matters that China and the United States need in bilateral fields and global affairs and can cooperate.The longer this list, the better, and it should not be disturbed by other problems.This method is very related to the dual -track ideas proposed by Wang Yi when dealing with the relationship between China and the Philippines. The core is to put on hold the controversy and cooperate together.In other words, China and the United States can continue to cooperate while continuing to confront, that is, to fight and combine them.

Although this idea is good, it is difficult to operate.After all, the United States does not rely on the Chinese economy as the Philippines, and does not have to worry about confrontation with China.In fact, China and the United States have not been able to cooperate with the crown disease epidemic in the world's well -being of the world. How can it be hoped that China and the United States will cooperate in other fields?If China and the United States really want to cooperate, it should start with epidemic cooperation.

In addition, there is also the most urgent problem, to keep the results of the cooperation consensus before the Sino -US industry has reached a consensus, that is, the first phase of the Sino -US trade agreement.Even if China and the United States fail to cooperate in other fields, as long as the two parties continue to abide by this trade agreement, the cooperation is continuing.However, recently Trump has frequently released the tariff measures that have been postponed, and finally announced the sixth batch of extension of tariffs to the extension of tariffs on Chinese products on July 6, of which only 12 products were extended and eliminated plus plus addition, plus plus addition,The validity period of tariffs.

On June 3, the US Department of Commerce announced that 33 Chinese companies and institutions will be included in the entity list to limit these companies to commercial transactions with American companies.At the same time, the news that the United States may tear the trade agreement on the outside world also flies.Therefore, if you want to talk about cooperation, maintaining the trade agreement is the top priority.

The second is the dialogue list, which lists the existing dialogue mechanisms and platforms as soon as possible by seeking problems that the two parties are divergent, but they are expected to find solutions through dialogue.For the first list, it is easier to operate. After all, the conversation does not have to reach a consensus and specific agreement.However, the official dialogue mechanism and platform between China and the United States have stagnated. In addition, the crown disease epidemic has a lot of difficulties to restore dialogue.

Earlier, Yang Jieye's conversation with Pompeo's Hawaii also did not have much results. At least neither parties could not find a plan to restart the bilateral dialogue mechanism and platform.Trump did not actively evaluate this, let alone a signal to talk to China.Therefore, in order to make the second list play practical effects, restart the bilateral dialogue mechanism and platform, or perform dialogue on the multilateral dialogue mechanism and the platform, it will be a priority.

The third is the list of control. In the spirit of seeking common ground while shelving differences and controlling a small number of difficult problems that are difficult to achieve, it will minimize the impact and destruction of relations between the two countries as much as possible.In fact, this list is the top priority to curb the vicious cycle of Sino -US relations.After all, the danger index of China and the United States in the South China Maritime Military Games is rising sharply, and the possibility of low intensity conflicts such as wipes or electronic warfare in warships on both sides is also significantly increased.

Based on this, both sides should highly recognize the extreme importance of the people who control themselves, and immediately carry out dialogue and take measures to strengthen the control and psychological guidance of the first -tier officers and soldiers, and avoid the incidents of fires and fires.However, the dialogue mechanism between the Chinese and the United States has not restarted. How can we formulate a crisis measures for controlling control?Moreover, Trump's indulgence against the military and the pretty of the US military are both obstacles to effectively control the crisis.All these shows the difficulties and resistances of China and the United States in controlling crises.

In general, China ’s initiative to propose a list of lists to ease Sino -US relations, reflecting the responsibility and mind of China's responsible country, and the United States should respond positively.Under the severe situation of the crown disease epidemic, China and the United States have the responsibility and obligations to improve relationships and promote cooperation than ever ever before.It is hoped that China's list plan can promote Sino -US relations and benefit the people of the world.

The author is an associate researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute