Middot; JMIDDOT; Bo Shijin
Like most countries in the world, the United States is trying to cope with the popularity of coronary virus disease in 2019 and a serious economic recession caused by government closed policies.In the first quarter of 2020, the US economy shrinks 5%compared to the same period last year, and in the second season, the US economy may shrink 40%, which is the biggest decline since the Great Depression.
In addition, tens of millions of workers were unemployed, resulting in the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%in April, a new high since the Great Depression.Although 70%of the fired people say they want to be recalled, not everyone will be recalled because many companies will close, relocate or reorganize.
It is true that the first measure of restarting the economy after the epidemic will lead to a significant rebound in the third quarter economic expectations.The number of employment in May increased by 2.5 million, and the high -frequency data of credit cards and mobile data tracking in May and June showed that since the lows in April, a major rebound has occurred. The degree of activity of a few industries is close to or even exceeds the level of the same period last year.Essence
But the degree of rebound varies from industry and regions.Although large technology companies, home decoration suppliers and alcoholic beverage retail are booming, the tourism and entertainment industry has stunned, and it takes longer to recover.In addition, the current situation of providing restaurants for getting off the car purchase service is far better than those restaurants that can only provide indoor services.
Therefore, most predictions predict that in the next few quarters, the early V recovery will slow down, and it is replaced by Nike's recovery of the shape and rate of the hook logo similar to Nike.But more significant uncertainty than usual is affecting this seemingly reasonable prediction.
First of all, affected by the epidemic, many non -necessary businesses have stopped, which has also led to impact on demand side.So far, trillions of dollars of commercial subsidies and loans, cash paid to the family, and the unemployment insurance paid by the federal bonus, enable eligible workers to obtain insurance benefits, of which two -thirds of the insurance amount obtainsMore than the salary it lost, these all provided a buffer for economic recovery.
The Fed promised that before restoring full employment, the target interest rate will remain unchanged and continue to expand the range of asset purchase.It is expected to introduce the fourth fiscal package plan in July, which should focus on restarting the economy, including restricting the legal responsibility of enterprises, adjusting the bonus payment method, and encouraging employees to return to work.
At the same time, the speed of recovery from the US in the field of public health and economic crises depends on the level of these crises in other countries; vice versa, the speed of recovery in other countries depends on the United States' response.The World Bank predicts that in 2020, 93%of countries will fall into a decline, which is the highest ratio in history.
Despite the supply of sufficient hospital beds and medical equipment, recently, the number of confirmed cases and inpatient cases in the United States still looks controllable, but if the epidemic is severely deteriorated, it may trigger a new suspension of labor or hinders further restarting the economy.This will slow down the speed of recovery, leading many Americans into despair and triggering related health and social problems.
In addition, the double crisis in the United States has exposed long -term problems.The first is that the country's medical supplies have insufficient reserves.For example, California had never maintained the Saus epidemic from 2002 to 2003. At that time, Governor Arnold Middot; Schwarzenegger's supply system established to fight against the epidemic, and had to repair hundreds of defective ventilator.The state government is responsible for handling unemployment applications and the distribution of welfare computer systems, and it has collapsed due to a large number of visits caused by this epidemic.
In addition, the impact of crown disease epidemic shows that too many individuals and companies lack enough financial reserves, and it is difficult to deal with days without income for several months.The epidemic also highlighted and worsen racial differences, which is reflected in the fragility of medical care, income, economic and healthy impact.
These crises have triggered a large -scale, rapid and unprecedented interferenceist response.However, the government response measures formulated in emergency situations must better control costs and restore private incentives in a longer -term, because history shows that once public projects and intervention measures are started, they can rarely end.
The economic and healthy recovery also largely depends on the actions of enterprises, citizens, and schools, including whether they insist on adopting proposed preventive measures, such as maintaining social distances, frequent wash, and wearing masks.Whether enterprises can survive when the number of employees and customers is limited, and whether to accelerate the digital transformation will bring net income, these are still to be observed.Of course, another danger is the second large -scale epidemic. It will overwhelm the hospital and scare employees, students and customers.
Quickly adaptive innovation has always been a highlight of resistance.Most American schools quickly carried out online teaching after closing, and remote medical care has flourished, because the government relaxes the salary restrictions in the field, and has re -allowed multinational medical consultation.Medical researchers quickly focused on crown disease testing, treatment and vaccine development: several human tests of several possible vaccines have begun, and new tests may begin before winter.The production capacity of vaccine will be simultaneously improved for the first time with the detection capacity. As long as the safe and effective vaccine is developed, it can be put into production and use faster.
However, when the epidemic and decline crisis is over, the long -term problems exposed will not disappear.It is true that before the outbreak, people finally began to pay attention to low -income workers.The unemployment rate of ethnic minorities is at the lowest level in history, and the wages with the lowest income are the fastest.After the epidemic, although a strong economic growth needs to ensure the continued improvement of the income of low -income people, some people are still left behind.
To solve this problem, it is necessary to revive the policy, expand the school's choice, bring more work and capital to poor areas, ensure better work training (including more opportunities and work choices), and take new and already new, already, already, already, already, already, already, already, already, haveConfirm the effective poverty alleviation plan.U.S. welfare receivers, the benefits they lost at work are facing extremely high hidden marginal tax rates. The income of many people at work is lower than the income when receiving multiple overlap welfare projects.
It is difficult to grasp the speed and strength of the US economic recovery.However, it is obvious that we must improve the incentives to hard -working workers during the normal period when work opportunities are sufficient, and at the same time strengthen the safety network to protect those who have less job opportunities and cannot work.
Author Michael J. Boskin is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior researcher at the Hoover Institute. He served as the chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee of the Old Bush administration from 1989 to 1993.
English Title: Americas Uncertain Recovery
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020
