Chen Xiang seconds

In less than a month, the United States has carried out a three-wheeled double aircraft carrier military exercise three times in the South China Sea and the surrounding waters., Entering the coast of Guangdong, China, another 25 years later, the US State Department issued another statement about the South China Sea policy on July 13th.Essence

In addition to amazing, the recent moves of the United States in the South China Sea have a negative impact on the security situation at sea and region in the future, which is even more worrying, because it is tantamount to sounding the horn of the Sino -US New Cold War.

First, the United States has redefined the relationship between the United States and Central and South China, and puts the South China Sea issue under the large framework of comprehensive strategic competition against China.In the statement, the United States portrays China's behavior in the South China Sea as a country that pursues the laws of righteousness, pursue the marine empire, and bullying a small country.

The implication of the United States is that, like defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War, according to Zhao Zhao's destiny, it will once again carry the banner of maintaining fairness, justice, democracy and freedom, and will unite and unite and have the same ways to unite China.Ambition.

In fact, the description of China as a bully is that the United States defines China as authoritarianism, amendments, and strategic competitors in the South China Sea.The epidemic, trade war, Huawei 5G and many other issues are binding as a comprehensive combination of Hua.

It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration has obviously abandoned the policy options of dialogue and cooperation with China on the South China Sea with the recent military operations and tough statements that the Trump.According to the logic of the United States, there is no room for dialogue cooperation in the South China Sea in the South China Sea, and go all out to curb China and become the main theme of the South China Sea policy in the United States.

Third, the US military operations in the United States in the South China Sea have shifted from showing existence, intelligence reconnaissance and strategic deterrence, and shifted to more dangerous and practical war preparations.Enter the era of direct confrontation and short soldiers.

From the joint military exercise of the double aircraft carrier, to the dispatch of EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft, E-8C vacant airfield monitoring aircraft, submarine, B-52 strategic bomber, frequently implement high-density reconnaissance on China's local offshore.It has exceeded the need for information collection and deterrence.From the perspective of its use of weapons, similar to high-end equipment such as E-8C vacant airplane monitoring aircraft is obviously previewed for the South China Maritime Army Conflict that may occur in China and the United States.

In other words, the United States has begun to prepare for a conflict with force with China in the South China Sea.The US military's aircraft carrier formation, submarine and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and bombers have formed in the South China Sea.The offensive and defensive system of regional and South China islands and reefs overlap in the space layout; the close -range encounters and confrontations of the two armies have become a normal state.

Third, the United States spares no effort to form a joint front of China as an impeccable enemy in the South China Sea. It is forming a bipolar confrontation like the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union.The competition of the great power is one of the important representations of the old Cold War; the contest of China and the United States in the South China Sea today has also increasingly showing this feature.

In this statement of the South China Sea, the United States deliberately emphasized the support of Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Indonesia on the South China Sea, and provoked China and various skeletons and Indonesia.The resource development problem is extremely sharp and unreasonable.

The United States is nothing more than wanting to use this to beolate China and draw the Asian Safe State to set up a camp to jointly curb China.In fact, the United States has already begun to use alliances and military security cooperation to attract foreign countries such as Japan, Australia, India, and the United Kingdom to jointly respond to China on the South China Sea issue.

Fourth, in the face of negotiations by the Code of Behavior of the South China Sea (COC), the United States is longing for and very likely to start a stove.situation.Rule of regular power is where the United States maintains the dominant position of the international system, and it is the most critical link that it continues to control the order of the South China Sea.The dominant position of the rules system symbolizes the ultimate control of regional order, and will play a decisive role in the Power location relationship between China and the United States in the South China Sea.

The United States is worried that once COC consultations are advanced in accordance with the current agenda and rhythm, China will obtain regular power in the South China Sea.The United States has expected that it should only be dependent or delayed by Vietnam, but it is difficult to completely block the process of obtaining power through COC through COC.

To this end, the US Foreign Relations Commission proposed in a report in May 2020 that the United States may be able to convene a like -minded country to establish a new norm of behavior of the South China Sea and jointly resist China's provocations and threats.

In fact, the discussion of the dominant constructing regional behavior rules has long been in the United States' decision -making and think tank circles.The competition between China and the United States' dominance of the rules of the South China Sea is about to usher in a two -polar confrontation situation in which you have a set and me.

In my opinion, since the decision -making strategy to China in 2017, the United States has determined that it has been unable to pass deterrence to prevent China's behavior in the South China Sea.

At present, the United States' strong push back strategy and the established positions in China are almost used up.The recent continuous high -strength military operations and high -profile policies of the United States in the South China Sea means that it has pressed the switch of the New Cold War.In fact, both China and the United States know that no one can force the other party to stop the deployment and actions in the South China Sea according to their wishes. No one will give up at the same time (at least at least).

However, another fact is that the decision -making layers of China and the United States also know that tension, conflict friction or gunfire to get angry will cause each other to suffer an incomparable price, and the new Cold War will also begin to perform.For China and Southeast Asian countries, adhering to bilateral dialogue negotiations, COC consultations, maritime cooperation, and crisis management and control may be the most appropriate policy choice to strive to challenge the United States and China.

The author is an associate researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute

The United States has spared no effort to set up a joint line with China as an impeccable enemy in the South China Sea region, similar to that of the two pole confrontation camps like the US -Soviet Cold War.The competition of the great power is one of the important representations of the old Cold War, and today's competition between China and the United States in the South China Sea has also increasingly showing this feature.