Current affairs perspective
When the crown disease epidemic is rampant in various countries, another new problem has emerged: the food supply is tight, and many countries have restricted the export of grain; some Chinese media have also attracted the food security issues of the country from time to time.
Is there really a situation in the global food?In recent years, major grain production countries have not been seriously harvested.This is obviously inconsistent with the facts.
Indeed, since March this year, some countries have begun to restrict export agricultural products. As of May 20, there have been as many as 20 countries that have taken this measure.In the meantime, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations also issued a joint statement on March 30 with the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization, claiming that due to the spread of related epidemics, the situation of food shortage was not ruled out.
On April 21, the Agricultural Minister of the G20 (G20) of the 20th Group (G20) temporarily held a video conference temporarily. After the meeting, a statement was issued to reiterate that it would ensure that the grain, products, and agriculture and grain production remain cross -border.He also said that he will continue to ensure the health, safety, benefits and liquidity of agriculture and the entire food chain workers.
The major global food producers are members of the G20. The statement of this conference should give the global service a reassurance.In fact, because the price of food and oil prices has some linkage relationship, with the decline of oil prices, the price of grain prices has also declined, and global food supply is safe.Those countries that restrict exports of grains have issued restrictions on the introduction of restrictions on the international grain market.
For example, Russia set up a 7 million tons of the upper limit of wheat exports in the second quarter of this year. In fact, this provision only reduced 200,000 tons compared with the same period last year, accounting for only about 5%of Russia's annual export volume.Winter wheat will not be harvested into the warehouse until the end of June. At this time, the food exports are mainly to clear the inventory so that the positions can be free from the position and let the new grains enter the warehouse.
Most countries that have introduced food export measures are mostly non -grain production countries. No matter how to restrict food exports, there will be no obvious response in the international grain market.In fact, the restrictions of these countries are mainly due to adjustments, and global grain inventory has maintained a growth trend in recent years.
Among the main grain types, the exporting country of wheat is the United States, Canada and Russia; corn and soybeans are mainly the United States, Brazil and Argentina.Their exports account for half of the world's half of the world, and it is difficult to imagine that these countries will introduce measures to restrict food exports.For example, although the Sino -US trade war has lasted for two years, not only did the United States not restrict the export of agricultural products to China, it has made every effort to increase the export of agricultural products to China, which is well known.People are worried about food problems, which is obviously due to the lack of understanding of the international food market.
In the past few years, the global energy shortage led to the use of about 40%of corn in the United States for the production of ethanol, while the US corn accounted for 30%of the global total output.Nowadays, oil prices have fallen all the way, and the United States does not have to use corn to produce ethanol at all. Therefore, global corn is obviously greater than demand, prompting corn prices to turn around.At the same time, as the economies of various countries are weak, people's income decreases, and meat consumption has also decreased significantly. This has led about 40%of the corn as a feed.
Since corn supply is too demand, farmers of various countries can only reduce corn sowing area, which has led to a significant increase in the planting area of soybeans, which is bound to lower the price of soybeans.Because a large part of wheat is also used as a feed, this will obviously drag the price trend of wheat.In 2008, oil prices climbed to a historical high of $ 147 per barrel. At that time, of course, food prices rose.Nowadays, the price of food and oil are down.
Will the epidemic lead to fluctuations in global food production?At least a few major food production countries will not appear.For example, agricultural production in the United States and Australia is mechanized operations, and there is no need for agricultural seasons to help. Therefore, the restrictions of export regulations adopted due to the epidemic situation have no impact on the agricultural production of these countries.On the contrary, the decline in oil prices is extremely good for farmers, because from sowing to harvesting is mechanized operations, it is inseparable from fuel.
As for China's grain supply problem, because China has always insisted on the concept of food in their hands and not panicked in their hearts, although the roller coaster -style grain prices have fluctuated sharply in the international market several times, China has continuously harvested the foodPowerful, the grain market has maintained stable overall.
In 2019, China's total grain output was 664 million tons, an increase of 0.9%over 2018, the highest level in history, and achieved sixteen consecutive Fengfeng.This year's food production situation is also generally good, and the harvest is looking at it.During the epidemic period, the state continued to introduce policies and measures to support agricultural production. It is a high probability event to obtain a harvest of grain this year.
Food problem is a problem that can't be bought
Thanks to the basic self -sufficiency and absolute safety strategy of main grains that have been emphasized in China in recent years, the average annual consumption of Chinese rations is more than 200 million tons.Inventory can meet consumer demand for more than a year.China's grain imports are mainly soybeans, coarse grains and other feed.Last year, China imported 10.47 million tons and exported 2.76 million tons. The net import volume of grains accounted for only about 2%of the national production and consumption.
Therefore, from the perspective of the total global food, there is no so -called grain crisis at all, but the problem is that the grain is available, that is, whether the poor in many countries can afford food.
The latest report of the United Nations shows that last year, the number of hungry people in the world increased by 10 million last year, with a total of about 690 million, accounting for 8.9%of the global population.The United Nations warned that the crown disease epidemic triggered economic recession, and the number of global hunger this year could increase by 80 million to 130 million.
As far as the status quo is concerned, the country with relatively concentration of grain lacks is Yemen, Democratic Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Syria.These are low -income countries, and most of them are facing the turmoil of civil war.Of course, the medical systems of these countries are also extremely fragile. Once the epidemic spreads, the corresponding economic activities also press the pause keys, and the social group with extremely low purchasing power will have no money to buy food.In some countries, the economic structure of countries is extremely single, and the impact of lower oil price on it is very obvious.
For some countries in East Africa, the disaster of the unexpected locust is even worse, which increases the food crisis there.Although global food is too required, for those poor people, they can't afford the cheaper of food.
The sudden crown disease epidemic has a serious hunger problem in the children's groups in low -income countries. Because the school has stopped classes, they can have a lunch at school at school, and now this meal has not come to an end.The World Grain Program and the United Nations Children's Foundation issued a warning, as many as 370 million children facing nutritional disorders and even health problems.
In recent years, there are emerging countries such as India, the Philippines, and other emerging countries. There are also some difficulties in poverty -stricken groups, because many cities have implemented a policy of prohibiting going out.Even in developed countries, due to the sharp rise in the unemployment rate, for those who failed to be covered by the social security network, there are now problems that cannot be enough.In Japan, a tragedy of the 39 -year -old unemployed man starved to death.
Of course, the raging crown disease epidemic has also caused a serious impact on the supply chain of various countries. There are already many countries of meat processing plants to discontinue production due to group infection.Of course, this has a certain impact on ensuring meat supply, although these effects are only temporary.However, if these local food supply problems cause panic in the society, which leads to snapping and hoarding, it may exacerbate this problem.
In addition, in some developed countries, fruits and vegetables have originally rely on seasonal workers in developing countries to help pick. Now, because of the epidemic countries adopt the border policy, there are some problems with the supply of fruits and vegetables in these countries. This has increased to some extent.Excessive food supply.
In summary, the global food supply is sufficient and abundant. The problem is that some poor people cannot afford food.This is not the problem of food production and supply, but the problem of income distribution and protection of disadvantaged groups, and it is not the same as the grain crisis.
The author is an associate researcher at the Shanghai International Institute of International Institute of International China
