Wang Tengfei
This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India. The two sides originally planned to hold 70 celebrations to promote the development of bilateral relations.However, the recently upgraded border tensions between the two countries and the recent conflicts in the Radalgandan Valley in the Radakus have had a huge impact on bilateral relations, which seriously shaken the foundation of the relationship between the two countries and caused an irreplaceable relationship to China -India relations.damage.
India's preparation for long -term confrontation
Although the third round of military dialogue was held on June 30, and the information that would gradually be separated from confrontation was released, India still moved frequently in all aspects, and seemed to be preparing to fight for a long time.Some think tank scholars are still irresponsible to give specific suggestions for long -term and comprehensively fighting China.
First, continue to strengthen military preparations in border areas to occupy a favorable position in negotiations.The Chief of Staff of the Indian Army Nalavani said on June 30 that the Indian army has been fully prepared at the real control line of the China -India border and is adhering to long -term activities.On the one hand, India ’s large -scale increase in troops has now been assigned four divisions to the Radaku area, equipped with tanks, artillery and mechanized infantry, and authorized the army to be fully freedom to allow front -line troops to use weapons.
On the other hand, India has increased military procurement and imported a number of weapons and equipment from France, Israel, the United States, and Russia, including French gusts fighter, Israel's air defense missile system, and US -made M982 sword -made artillery shells.In addition, under the current tension, on June 29th, the Indian government evaluated the road projects that the China -India border was under construction, and still decided to continue to accelerate the construction of 32 projects.And some people suggested that India should open a new front, that is, put pressure on China in the eastern section of the China -India border to create a multi -point confrontation, thereby enhancing India's negotiating position in the forcing China to withdraw troops.
Second, accelerate cooperation with neighboring Indian Ocean to prevent China from getting a strategic foothold.After the conflict, the Indian think tank scholars suggested that the government can use China's weaknesses in the Indian Ocean region to seek a crucial maritime transportation route, especially those routes passing through the Malacca Strait;Relations with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and Australia have changed India's neutral position on the South China Sea issue; it even includes the use of Tibetan issues to create trouble.
At present, the Indian Navy has demanded that the ships on the Andaman Islands improve their alertness, especially to prevent Chinese submarine penetration, and conduct symbolic joint exercises with Japan in the Indian Ocean on June 27, trying to pass signals to China.India has long been full of doubt and prevention of China. In the current situation that does not have the strength to compete with China, India is increasingly inclined to use external forces to achieve balance, and hopes to unite China from multiple fronts to fight against China.
Second, guide international public opinion with the so -called global diplomatic movement and destroy China's international image.Some Indian scholars have suggested that the nature of China's invasion to foreign ambassadors can be regularly notified to foreign ambassadors, as well as the atrocities of the Indian army, including the hype of the Chinese epidemic accountability theory, and expressed concern about the Hong Kong National Security Law.Political price.India has become more obvious by strengthening the so -called international cooperation.
Recently, some US officials have publicly expressed their support for India and accused China of aggressive India.In addition, some people suggested that the Indian government can use the upcoming 2021 Vancouver Summit to pressure China. Just like during the 2017 Donglang confrontation, India has used the BRICS Summit in China as a lever, threatening that China has not received the crisis that has not been obtained in the crisis.The absence of the summit will be forced to make concessions in the case of resolving in advance, forcing China to make concessions.
Fourth, take the surgery of economic and trade issues and try to decompose with China's economy.After the military conflict between China and India, the anti -China wave broke out in India and resisted Chinese products. The Indian government minister called for economic resistance to China.According to Indian media reports, India is looking for a list that can replace Chinese products to prepare for long -term fighting.
Recently, India has banned 59 Chinese applications on the grounds of protecting national security, and then announced that no Chinese company or a joint venture with Chinese companies participated in road construction projects, and intended to expand this policy to all key keyInfrastructure, such as ports, energy, railways, broadband, finance and other fields, try to appease their nationalist emotions.
India has decided not to consider joining the trade agreement dominated by China, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP).The Department of Electric Power also issued orders a few days ago, asking Indian companies to get government permission before importing power equipment and components from China.India has gone further and further on this disadvantaged road.
All these preparations clearly show that India is preparing for long -term confrontation with China.Some people say that the dispute between the dragon elephant will be more intense in the future and may even develop into the battle of dragon elephants. Although it is exaggerated, from this time the Indian border forces have provoked in the Galwan Valley area, and the recent all -rounds of ChinaLook, this is no longer impossible.The fragility of China -India relations in the future will be more prominent.This obviously runs counter to China ’s strategic partnership that China is looking forward to.
Fighting is not a way out
In addition to the unreasonable border disputes, structural contradictions such as trade competition, the Dalai Lama, and Pakistan have been exacerbating the Sino -Indian confrontation for a long time.In general, the development opportunities and challenges of relations between the two countries coexist.Although there are many problems in the past, the two countries still have many major cooperation in different fields and occasions, including BRICS Group, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
And after the confrontation of Donglang in 2017, both leaders of the two sides have tried to increase political mutual trust through informal summit talks and make the relationship between the two countries normally.But the situation has developed to this day, and China -India relations have been derailed again and reached the crossroads.
At present, a series of actions adopted by India are not wise. Not only is it not conducive to the two sides out of the current dilemma, but it will cause the two countries to fall into a long -term confrontation.In the case of current economic difficulties and the coronary virus epidemic, cautious policies should be adopted.As Professor R. Sudarshan, dean of the School of Government and Public Policy, India's Global University Government and Public Policy, said: It is obviously not a way to resolve this dispute through war.There will be losers who are willing to accept failure.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked with India's national security adviser Dorwal on July 5.The two sides agreed to place the border issues in the appropriate position of bilateral relations, avoid rising differences into disputes, and complete the process of leaving the contact process as soon as possible.This plays an important role in alleviating the current tension.As the border is out of contact, how to develop Sino -Indian relations in the future is worth thinking about.
The healthy interaction of China -India relations is very important for the peace between the two countries and the world.Both China and India should carefully examine and learn lessons, return to pragmatic and rational, and strive to find things in common, and re -meet the trauma of relations between the two countries, rather than continue to turn to other fields.
The author is an assistant researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute
