01 Viewpoint
On Tuesday (14th), the British government announced that it would ban the China Telecommunications giant Huawei from participating in its domestic 5G infrastructure, and plans to completely remove all current Huawei equipment in China by 2027.Britain has been relatively ambiguous on the Huawei issue.At the beginning of last year, the British National Network Security Center (NCSC) published documents that the use of Huawei is controllable, and the British government also announced that Huawei participated in non -core network construction.However, the situation has a lot of variables this year. At the beginning of the year, the new crown epidemic broke out. It began to report that the British cabinet was examining whether Huawei participated in the construction of 5G networks in the UK, and finally evolved to now completely disabled.The rapid change of the British attitude towards Huawei is likely to be related to changing the balance between China and the West.
Britain's related decision to Huawei can be simply summarized as Britain's attitude towards China and the United States: whether to show China to accept Huawei or obey the intention of the United States to refuse Huawei.Britain and the United States are traditional allies. Needless to say, there is a close relationship.But at the same time, the United States has gradually moved downhill, obviously unable to economically help Britain's development after Brexit.This enables Britain to find space between China and the United States, while continuing to protect relations with the United States, while using China to find an economic breakthrough.In 2015, then Prime Minister Cameron noticed the benefits brought by Chinese cooperation and announced that he would build the Golden and British golden era.In June 2016, British Brexit referendum passed a resolution that Britain was isolated after leaving the European community, and his cooperative relations with China seemed even more valuable.However, the good times of the Golden and Britain's golden age are not very good. With the rapid turn of the relationship between China and the United States after 2017, the British originally wanted to be destroyed by the tension between the two countries between China and the United States.
Standing between China and the United States
With the deterioration of Sino -US relations, the two countries have tattooed each other, and the key issues of Britain in Huawei are difficult to please both sides and must choose.The issue of Huawei has quite a lot of controversy in the United Kingdom, and there has been a parental politician opposition in the ruling Conservative Party.However, the United Kingdom ignored the US warning last year and eventually decided to release Huawei, saying that Britain did not fall to the United States at the time. After weighing interests, he still hoped to cooperate with China to find the way out of economic development.
Since there is this decision, why did Britain suddenly turn to Huawei this year?From multiple considerations, this is likely to have a lot to do with the black swan new crown epidemic that broke out this year.The new crown epidemic has a global outbreak. Advanced countries such as Europe and the United States cannot deal with the epidemic. The economy has been strongly hit. The GDP in the second quarter of the United Kingdom is estimated that it has fallen by 20%to 30%, and the US GDP is likely to decrease by more than 30%.Moreover, although Europe and the United States have partially restarted the economy, they have failed to break the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the epidemic was repeated, and the damage to the economy could be long -term.On the other hand, although China broke out of the epidemic, under the fierce prevention of epidemic prevention, the epidemic was roughly subsided in China. Although the economy was almost paused in February, it resumed rapidly. Although the first quarter of GDP fell by 6.8%, afterwards, various types of various types of GDPs, afterwards, various various types of various types, afterwards, all kinds of various types of various types of various.Economic data is obvious, and it is estimated that GDP in the second quarter can return to the positive growth zone.
Is the epidemic breaking the balance?
There is no doubt that the new crown epidemic has brought unexpected opportunities to China. China has a uniqueness worldwide, which has greatly shortened its gap with the United States.However, such a strong momentum in China has aroused the resentment of major industrial countries including Britain.China suddenly ran out, and far exceeded expectations, not only suddenly increased the threat of the United States, but also disturbed the British and Japan's important industrial countries.They feel that China may soon surpass the United States, and once so, it may make it difficult for them to bargain to China.When there is a clear advantage in the United States, how much Britain believes that China helps to balance the situation; but when China suddenly chase, the United Kingdom is likely to think that it is necessary to join the American camp to suppress China's development.
In addition, Britain has had close relations with the United States. Many conservatives of the United States have long been eager to move, just to take the new crown epidemic to grasp the right to speak.Coupled with China's promotion of the National Security Law in Hong Kong between the epidemic, the conservative politicians in the West as the strong provocation of Western order, which eventually prompted Britain to change its position to prohibit Huawei.
However, Britain's decision on prohibiting Huawei may not be changed.The Britain has been completely removed from Huawei for seven years. During this period, it was longer than the original five years. Obviously, it took care of the interests of corporate interests, and it was enough to change a lot.The British national policy has always been swaying, and the future economic environment is very challenging. If the situation changes or the UK must be more economically dependent on China, it is impossible to re -consider the Huawei ban.
