Wangbao Society Review
The global economy is suffering from the epidemic, but the financial market is like a wild horse, and it has frequently reached a new high.The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which are mainly high -tech stocks, spans the 10,000 and 2,000 mark respectively, and continue to write historical records.Not only did it break through the high point last year, but also wrote down the new high for nearly two and a half years, which has become the world's most noticeable focus. Taiwan stocks are also momentum.Essence
This wave of land stocks has a backward reissue, but it is not enough to fully explain. The real reason is that the economy has recovered. The recently announced economic data is beyond expectations.Caixin released the continuous expansion of the PMI of the manufacturing and service industry in June, maintaining the PMI58.4 of the service industry in addition to more than 50 in the prosperity and dry line, reaching a new high of 10 years.
A few days ago, the Bank of China issued a survey report in the town of residents in the town. Many indicators have grown significantly compared with the first quarter, and even some indicators have returned to the level before the epidemic.For example, the residents' income experience index increased by 4.5%compared with the first quarter, and the resident employment expectation index returned to 50.1%, which fully showed that the mainland people's confidence in future revenue and employment is recovering. Confidence is an important source of motivation to promote the stock market.Not to mention, data such as industrial production, investment and exports announced earlier, the recovery momentum is strong, and the performance is quite amazing.
All these are proved that the mainland's economic foundation is very strong, not the fragility as the outside world is conceived.Especially under the impact of the epidemic, the world is still in the mud, and the performance of the mainland is particularly valuable.From the data released by IHS Markit, two internationally renowned forecasting agencies and World Bank, even if the global economy will face a serious recession of -6%and -5.2%this year, the United States may even be more tragic, reaching -8.1%and-6.1%, the mainland still grows 0.5%and 1%, and the contrast is extremely strong.This not only means that the mainland responds to the efficient rate of epidemics, so that economic vitality can be recovered quickly, but also means that in the future, it is expected to lead the global prosperity to the leader of the haze. It is still the mainland.
However, although so many objective data and facts are endorsing the mainland economy, the market questioning has never stopped, thinking that the sound of the mainland's economy is no longer and the financial crisis is always endless.In particular, this wave of epidemic creates the domestic demand market in the mainland, which has caused the outside world to doubt the possible failure of the economic structure adjustment in the mainland in recent years.EssenceUnder the intersection of the inside and outside situation, the rumors of China's economic collapse theory are even more arrogant.However, such speculation in 30 years has never come true.The reason is not difficult to understand, because most of the remarks that sings the mainland are mostly to look at the mainland with colored glasses, and never face the effectiveness of the economic reform of the mainland for more than 40 years.View.
In April this year, Thomas Orlik, chief economist of Bloomberg Economic, released a new book called China: Never burst of bubbles, which greatly overthrew the stereotype of the mainland in the past.Thomas Orlik pointed out why the theory of China's economic collapse does not come true. The reason is that many mainland issues seen outside the outside world are actually things on both sides.In other words, these issues really seem to seriously threaten the economic development of the mainland, but at the same time, the problem itself also provides corresponding solutions.Taking high savings and state -owned enterprises as an example, emphasizing that high savings rate will suppress credit and hinder investment, while state -owned enterprises are representatives of corruption and inefficient, which is not good for economic growth;When impacting the economy, the high savings rate has become a rock of bank financing, while state -owned enterprises are the best role to cooperate with the government's rescue, which can buffer the fluctuations in the economic cycle and avoid the economic system collapse.
Thomas Orlik's argument is that the concept of automatic stability factor in the theory of Estater Cycle is similar.This is exactly what we have repeatedly appealed in the past. Looking at the mainland, we must not look at it with Western eyes, but to be closer to the market nature of the mainland's economic reform process, so that we can see more clearly.After all, everything has a surface, the optimistic or bad side of light, and it is easy to form excessive bias.The socialist market economy experiments in the mainland have experienced more than 40 years, but compared with the development process of European and American capitalism for more than a century, it is actually no different from children.In other words, in the promotion and development of the market economy, the mainland is still studying and exploring, and it needs to give it more time to prove whether such a system is good or bad.
At present, the reform of the mainland's market economy is still on the right road. Even in the face of the serious threat of the trade war and epidemic, Beijing has not abandoned the concept of market opening up, and it is firm and continued to relax and loosen relevant regulations.Whether it is the deepening of reform and opening up in the capital market, or the first trial of the renovated capital projects, this is the case.This will undoubtedly become the momentum of the mainland economy in the future.The Chinese economic collapse theory is just listening.
