Qiao Xinsheng
On July 1, Russia held citizen voting, 78%of voters agreed to modify the constitution, and 21%opposed it.The amendment of the Constitution determines the fate of Russia.
Constitution content includes people's livelihood issues, such as increasing pensions, setting minimum wages, etc.; At the same time, it also includes political issues, such as the termination of the term of office of the president.It is worth noting that President Putin, 67, will continue to participate in the election after the end of the term of 2024.This indicates that Russia may have a president of the old dragon bell.
Whether it is the president of the three -powered system, or the president of the Cabinet Prime Minister system, there is an aging trend.In the cabinet country, the president is just a symbol of the country, so the age of the president will not attract attention.However, in the presidential state, if the presidential age is relatively old, whether the thought can keep up with the needs of the development and change, or whether the country can continue to move forward is itself worthy of attention.
The United States Republican and Democratic presidential candidates are long -year -old. The two reversed in politics have made people worry about the elderly politics.If in the presidential state, the president is old and high, can it be competent for complex political affairs, whether it can maintain national interests in a complex and changeable international environment, which is highly concerned.
There are many reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The corruption of the Communist Party is the fundamental reason, and the root cause of the Communist Party's abyss of corruption is that the root cause is that during the election process, serious theoretical phenomena occurred.After several Soviet leaders came to power, most of the time spent in the hospital. In order to maintain their political life, they could only be left alone, which inevitably led to the earliest communist country of the Soviet Union to corruption.
The old man's politics brought endless disasters to the Soviet Union. After the old man died one after another, the Soviet Communist Party decided to choose a young general secretary, and Gorbachev came to power.Gorbachev has been suppressed in the political environment of the elderly. He hopes to rely on his own strength to change the current situation of the Soviet Union, so he puts forward the claims of new thinking, hoping to integrate with Western countries to get strong support from Western countries.
This political reform with fantasyism not only leads to serious differences and contradictions within the high level of the Communist Party, but also makes the Soviet leaders at all levels at a loss.
Gorbachev enjoyed the privilege of the Communist Party, but he hoped to completely transform the Soviet Union, so he naively suggested that the signing of the federal agreement to maintain the status quo of the Soviet Union.However, the coastal countries along the Baltic Sea have long been centrifuged; and the Soviet entities such as Ukraine and Russia hoped to get rid of Gorbachev's leadership and start another stove.
Therefore, when Gorbachev was still immersed in his political fantasy, he could not extricate himself, and the President of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus signed an agreement to decide to establish a CIS and replace the existing Soviet Union.The so -called constitution and alliance treaty carefully designed by Gorbachev was thrown into a garbage dump by Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, and the fate of the Soviet Union changed from then on.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev made pain and decided to make every effort to integrate into the political system of Western countries.But he never thought that only humiliation, not economic assistance.
The contradictions between Russia and major industrial countries not only did not implement the Washington consensus reform, but gradually eliminated the westernization. Instead, because Russia caused contradictions in dealing with the relations with the CIS country, it led to sanctions on Russia in Western countries on Russia.Essence
Yelin's frequent replacement of the Prime Minister still cannot be widely supported by the Russian people in Russia. It is helpless and desperate. Putin, who is described as an intelligence official, chose Putin as his successor.The unknown KGB officials made full use of the Gaococean war, established their own tough image, and won widespread support for Russian voters.
Putin knows the character of the Russian people and fully understands the dilemma facing Russia. Therefore, whenever Russia is facing difficulties, the Russian's first image spokesperson will be shirtless, revealing its developed muscles, showing Russia's tough Russia's toughness to the international community.Image.
The reason why Russia is persuaded by the senior generals of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and directly involved in the Syrian war, the purpose is to surround Wei to save Zhao. On the one hand, with the help of the Syrian war, a wedge is enhanced in the Middle East to enhance the influence and appeal in the Middle East;On the other hand, through this action, the North Atlantic Convention organization led by the United States has continuously stressed to Russia eastward to Russia.
Russia relies on its strong military forces to maintain the integrity of national sovereignty and recapture the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.Russia's aggressiveness makes Western countries fear.Therefore, they look for various excuses to impose sanctions on Russia.
Under the sanctions of Western countries, Russia has become a country that relies on energy exports to increase fiscal revenue.The changes in oil prices have brought tremendous pressure on Russia's finance.Although Russian Prime Minister Mashansjing emphasized that Russia has enough strategic reserves and do not worry about the decline in international oil prices, but Russia's oil mining costs are far higher than the Middle East Arabia and other countries. If international oil prices continue to fall, Russian oil exports will lose money.Make money.
In recent years, Russia has hoped to accelerate the pace of infrastructure construction and achieve economic diversification.However, the biggest problem that plagues Russia is the population problem.Due to the severe population aging, the population not only did not increase, but decreased continuously, and Russia faced a serious problem of lack of population.Although Putin hopes to revitalize the strong style, Russia refuses to introduce immigrants, fearing that immigrants will lead to damage to the interests of the Russian nation.
On the one hand, the population is constantly declining, on the one hand, and on the one hand, Russia has actually been in trouble.The Russians missed the Emperor Peter of Russia and the powerful era, so all the hope was pinned on Putin.Putin has been on the international political stage, and he has waved Fang Ye, but the Russian economy has difficulty supporting Putin's ambition.
If the economy continues, it is difficult for the Russians to live effectively and effectively.In a vast country such as Russia, if the population continues to decrease, if you want to maintain national sovereignty and territorial integrity forever, it will face very difficult difficulties.
The strategy adopted by Russia is to develop cutting -edge nuclear weapons and refuse the enemy.This is a posture of active attack and the only way to maintain national security.Russia's Far East is wide and rare. If the troops are deployed, logistics supply will become a problem.Russia can only use advanced strategic weapons to threaten to use crackdown on other countries to ensure that this country that is already in an empty city continues.
The competition between the country is the competition of national strength, but in the end it is the competition of talents.Talents are based on the population.If there is no enough population, it may be difficult for outstanding talents to emerge.
Israel is a country with a lack of population. Therefore, Israel attracts Jews from all over the world to join Israel and become Israeli citizens.Israel built a country with a population of millions of millions in a projectile land.Is Israel's only one purpose, that is, to ensure that the population is growing and then maintains the national security of Israel.
However, compared with Palestine, Israel's biggest weakness is still the population problem.Although Israel increases its population through immigrants, the population birth rate is far lower than Palestine. In terms of time, Israel will be firmly controlled by the Palestinians.
Perhaps a few years later, people will see an old Russian President of Longzhong overlooking the vast Russian land.In this deserted desert, Russia withered like leaves.
Russia chose a tough leader, but the president could not change Russia's fate.The decisive factor affecting the development of a country is the population factor.The increase in population may lead to increase in social benefits, or it may alsoAs a result, creativity increases.If carefully analyzes the countries in the world today, you will find that all countries with relatively fast growth rate are young countries, such as Vietnam and India; all countries with relatively slower economic growth are aging countries, such as Russia and Russia and andOther Western countries.
Therefore, Russia's strategic decisions are critical.If Russia still pursues the expansion policy, it may reproduce the former glory.Conversely, if Russia holds the Cold War thinking and implements national policies for opportunism and extreme pragmatism, Russia will speed up their decline.
The Russian Constitution was amended to Putin's tailor -made.In order to ensure that Putin continues to be re -elected, the Russian Constitution stipulates that the president must not exceed two term.However, before the constitutional amendment was passed, it was not affected by the president or the president.In other words, Putin can participate in future presidential elections.This means that Putin is likely to be Russia's eternal president, until he becomes forever.
The Russian nation gave his greatest trust to the president and pinned his hopes on Putin.At least from the current situation, no country dares to invade Russia, but whether Russia can realize the great concept of national rejuvenation, whether Putin can get rid of the curse of elderly politics, whether it can lead Russia out of the predicament?
The author is a professor at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
