Zheng Hao: China and Indias dispute affects multilateral cooperation

Zheng Hao

On June 15th, the two armed forces between China and India broke out in the Galle Wan Valley. Subsequently, the senior commanders of the two armies at the forefront of the actual control line held a 11 -hour meeting on June 22 and reached a consensus again.All friction locations of the line implement out of contact to avoid confrontation and physical conflicts again.On the 24th, a video conference held a video conference between the Sino -Indian border affairs negotiation and coordination of the China -India border affairs between the two countries, reiterating the relevant consensus and emphasizing the crisis of control and control, and the situation was not allowed to be upgraded.

Nevertheless, as far as the current military deployment of the China -India Army in the Galle Valley, Ban Gongwa Lake and other places, the risk of confrontation or conflict between the two armed forces still exists, and the solution of territorial sovereignty disputes is still far away.Essence

The author believes that the most important reason why China and India have difficulty fully trust and cooperate with each other is the longest reason for the long -term territorial sovereign disputes of the two countries.China and India have not set the national border so far, and the so -called actual control line of the border is just a regional jurisdiction that the two countries should obey each other.Of course, sometimes tacit understanding may not be observed.

The disputes between the territorial sovereignty between China and India not only slowly consume and erode the bilateral relations between the two countries for a long time, but also the radiation effects brought about by this also harm the multilateral cooperation mechanism jointly participated by the two countries.For China, the damage seems to be even greater.

First of all, in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Mechanism, what was most worried about China was happening.In 2017, the SCO was expanded for the first time. It officially absorbed India and Pakistan, which had been an observer state as an observer state, and became a formal member state.In the acceptance of Indo -Pakistan, there have been different views in the Chinese academic community.Some scholars believe that the two countries that are attracting India and Pakistan are conducive to cracking down on three forces that are active in the border regions of Central Asia, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and it is also conducive to alleviating the tension between India and Pakistan in the controversy of Kashmir.

However, those who oppose opinions believe that Russia's main suction to India is to consider the important military relationship of Russia and India, and the expected China -India contradiction will affect China's leadership ability in the SCO. In this way, Moscow is worried aboutChina may not happen through the expansion of the influence in Central Asia through the SCO.

In fact, some Chinese scholars have also raised warnings, pointing out that once the strategic relationship between Russia and India, and the inherent hostile contradictions between India and Pakistan to the SCO, will not only affect the efficiency and ability of the SCO, but alsoIt is also a new huge challenge for China's leadership position in the SCO.

As we all know, India has not only maintained a good cooperative relationship with Russia for a long time, but in recent years, the development of relations with the United States, Australia and Japan has also made rapid progress in recent years.It can be expected that, as a multilateral cooperation organization of anti -terrorism and economic and trade cooperation in region, the SCO is difficult to condense consensus, abide by the organizational charter, and has high political and security mutual trust.In -depth cooperation in the field?

To some extent, India becomes a member state, which has weakened China's right to speak in the organization, and also allows China to be alert to India's trends in inside and outside the organization.For example, the action plans of the SCO, various intelligences of valuables, and the assessment of regional and global political and economic and security situations can it be limited to negotiating and exchanges within the organizational member of the organization?This is indeed a problem.

Similarly, the long -term hostile relationship between India and Pakistan makes it more difficult for the SCO to achieve sincere cooperation and give full play to the overall ability of the organization.

Secondly, within the cooperation framework of the BRICS Five Kingdoms, the contradictions and conflicts between China and India make the cooperation between the BRICS.In particular, the current crown disease is popular, and the epidemic in India, Brazil, and Russia is still very severe, which also makes it difficult for five emerging economies to maintain normal economic growth, which has brought great impact to mutual trade, investment and important project construction, and brought great impact.Essence

As far as China -India is concerned, a more realistic issue is that the trade imbalance between the two countries has long existed in the two countries (China maintains huge trade surplus, and the surplus in 2019 is nearly 400 billion yuan).Domestic anti -Chinese goods, nationalism and a few anti -China forces have continuously put pressure on the Modi government, requiring restrictions on importing Chinese products, etc. Therefore, the new and old problems have an additional effect, which gives the two countries and the five countries of China and India, and bring unprecedented unprecedented cooperation between China and India and the BRICS.Negative impact.

According to the 2020 World Economic Outlook data released by the International Monetary Fund in late June, except for expected domestic GDP (GDP) this year, it still has 1%of positive growth, and other BRICS countries are negatively growing. Russia is -6.6%is -6.6%, India -4.5%, Brazil is -9.1%, and South Africa is -8.0%.Whether the BRICS Five Kingdoms can take the lead in the recovery of growth in the post -epidemic era and promote the recovery of the world economic recovery, in addition to the epidemic, there is also political conditions.If China -India cannot straighten the relationship, it is difficult for the broken BRICS.In the short term, the situation is obviously not optimistic.

Finally, the conflict between the China -India border also affects the meeting mechanism of the three foreign ministers of the three countries and India.The Sino -Russian and Indian -three foreign ministers' dialogue mechanism began in 2002. It was considered by Western public opinion that the three countries intended to build a regular meeting mechanism similar to the US -Japan -South Korea three sides+defense ministers.Especially on this basis, the Sino -Russian and India three countries held the first summit for the first time in 2006. Western public opinion once again discussed whether these three countries in the world's fastest economic development will be held again, and it will bear the economic responsibility that G8 is difficult to bear.

Obviously, this is too simple and unrealistic.Although China and Russia are a comprehensive strategic partnership, the two countries have already made public statements that they are not alliances, just associated; and Russia and India have demand for each other, especially in recent years, the rapid development of cooperation between the two countries.In September last year, Russian President Putin said India was one of Russia's key partners, highlighting the particularity of Russian -Indian relations.

As we all know, Russia-India military technical cooperation is an important part of strategic cooperation between the two countries. The two countries are working hard to implement the military cooperation plan before 2020 and carry out the production of Karashnikov light weapons, card-226T helicopters and missile systems in India.Joint project.Since last year, India has ordered $ 14.5 billion in weapons and military equipment from Russia, including the S-400 air defense missile system and 11356 frigates.

The coldness of the relationship between Russia and India's relationship with China and India forms a sharp contrast.In terms of energy cooperation, Russia and India signed a five -year cooperation plan last year. Indian state -owned enterprises will continue to invest in four oil and natural gas development enterprises in Russia.At the same time, Russia agreed to increase the export of LNG for India.

Of course, Russia does not want Sino -Indian relations to worsen further, which does not conform to Russia's fundamental interests. However, because China and Pakistan have maintained all -weather friendly relations and India and Pakistan are hostile countries.The relationship is not surprising.To a certain extent, the China -Russia -Indian Foreign Minister's meeting mechanism pays more attention to the communication and coordination of the three countries on major regional issues, and it is difficult to develop cooperation in the right and true sense.

All in all, although a new round of conflicts in the China -India border seem to be a problem, the impact of the noodles from this is extensive.A problem in the two countries may weaken the role of three multilateral cooperation platforms.In this regard, if China and India cannot resolve territorial disputes, then, how can the SCO, the five countries, and the China -Russia -Indian Foreign Minister's meeting with the coexistence of the two countries stop the loss?

The author is a senior current affairs commentator of Phoenix Satellite TV

Visit scholar in Brukins, USA

The disputes between the territorial sovereignty between China and India not only slowly consume and erode the bilateral relations between the two countries for a long time, but also the radiation effects brought about by this also harm the multilateral cooperation mechanism jointly participated by the two countries.For China, the damage seems to be even greater.