Shi Bojia: The attitude of the United States may change the attitude towards the trade

The Sino -US trade war that lasted two years has always been the focus of the world.The Sino -US trade war has also brought great trouble to Trump's governance.The trade agreement hovers between time and over time.Especially in 2019, China began to impose tariffs on US soybeans, marking that in the response strategy of the trade war, the Chinese government began to turn to the Republican ticket warehouse and crack down on Trump's reelection.This has also continued to upgrade the trade war.

In early 2020, the two parties finally reached a trade agreement.At present, both parties are adhering to this agreement.During the entire trade agreement negotiation, although the attitude of the US government is tough, it still hopes to reach this agreement.President Trump hopes to stimulate the US economy through this trade agreement, reduce the trade deficit, and strive for re -election with economic achievements.

With the passage of time, especially the approach of the US election, the US government's attitude towards the trade agreement may change and even abandon the trade agreement.From the economic level, the trade agreement has lost its meaning; from a political level, with the advent of the US election, the election strategy will become the main line of the current US government.In the context of the election, the trade agreement has become more and more chicken ribs.At the same time, the United States has begun to make comprehensive reflection and adjustments, and the economic problem is no longer the core issue.

In terms of economic perspective, good economic data plus a trade agreement can completely reflect Trump's political achievements.During the campaign, there is a chance of winning the economic card.However, the raging coronary virus and the signs of secondary outbreak have severely created the fundamental fundamentals of the US economy.During the campaign, it is basically impossible to hit the economy card.

The role of a trade agreement is to stimulate the US economy and consolidate voters.With the two years of the Sino -US trade war, the number of Chinese imports from the United States has decreased significantly.Even in the last few months, the total number of purchases will decline.

In addition, the reason why soybeans have become the focus of the Sino -US trade war is not only because of China's large purchase volume, but also because it will affect Republican voters.Since the purchase of soybeans in China, it clearly shows that China does not want Trump to be re -elected.In the first few months of the upcoming election, China ’s increase in the probability of buying its efforts can be imagined.From this we can see that under the current situation, the Sino -US trade agreement has become a chicken rib, and the US government has no economic driving force to maintain the trade agreement.

In the months before the US election, the election strategy will become the core factor considered by the Trump administration.With the current American political form, its attitude towards China will become the core factor affecting the election.From the perspective of elections, it is difficult to perfectly combine the toughness to China with the trade agreement.As a result, the trade agreement will become a bond of the overall tough policy.In this case, the election team is likely to suggest that Trump abandon the trade agreement and establish a completely tough image of China.

From the perspective of international relations, the trade agreement may be an outdated product.From the perspective of international relations, in the short term, the phenomenon, the trend in the medium term, and the structure for a long time.In the early days of Trump's ruling, he tried to balance trade relations with China and seek economic benefits.With the frustration of this goal, it has gradually entered the stage of trade war, trying to reduce the trade deficit through trade agreements, and avoid intellectual property theft.At this point, it is still in economic goals.

In the game of the trade war, the relationship between the two countries has continued to deteriorate, and the recent Hong Kong National Security Law has further deteriorated bilateral relations.In this situation of deterioration, the American intellectual community has begun to reflect on Sino -US relations, and pay more attention to ideological conflicts, industrial security, and even military security.

In this context, Sino -US relations have risen more and more to ideological, industrial competition, and even military competition.This has risen to political level.The United States has begun to adjust its structure, which includes the structure of the industry, as well as ideology.Compared with such a great strategy, the trade agreement is only at the economic level, and it is obviously not suitable for the current US strategy.

Therefore, the author believes that with the beginning of the US election, the Trump administration's initiative to abandon the trade agreement will become stronger and stronger.

The author is the director of China Beijing International Cui Zhi Consultant Service Co., Ltd.