Kette Middot; Harxinton
Just like the protagonist in a series, North Korean leader Kim Jong -un has opened the prelude to the recent crisis of the Korean Peninsula as a drama form.Earlier in June, after cutting off all communication with South Korea, he bombed the building that had previously received South Korean diplomats.North Korea has re -deployed troops to non -military border areas and issued violence against the south again.Kim Jong -un also grabbed the shot exaggerated performance in May, when he announced that North Korea would increase investment in nuclear war.
The Trump administration has turned a blind eye to this latest incident, which has sufficient reason.Two years after participating in the TV show with Trump, Kim Jong -un confirmed that the storyline of the brotherhood has reached the end, and a more old bridge section is needed to maintain its high ratings.
Kim Jong -un has obtained political benefits from Trump's incompetence, and now he is not obscure to maintain North Korea's nuclear country.To explain this, he promoted the generals responsible for the nuclear project, served as the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and also rewarded 69 other generals who contributed to the success of the national strategy in recent years.
Since the failure of the Hanoi Nuclear Summit in February 2019, Kim Jong -un has been consistent in words and deeds.Last April, he warned that Trump had to lift the US sanctions on North Korea by the end of 2019.Since then, North Korea has continued to conduct short -range missiles and achieved significant success, expanded a missile production facility, and established new support facilities for its missile plan.
Obviously, Trump aims to curb the limit pressure on North Korea's secret income and trade sources, and failed to change the process of nuclear plans and missile plans for the North Korean regime.U.S. officials also acknowledged this in May. At that time, the US Department of Justice accused 28 North Korean officials and five Chinese officials and bankers (successfully) avoided sanctions.The indictment said that since 2014, North Korea's global shell company network has injected $ 2.5 billion into Kim Jong -un's nuclear weapons, missiles and high -tech projects.
In terms of expanding North Korea's huge conventional military capabilities, Kim Jong -un is also consistent.Although North Korea's military equipment is far less than US armored and aircraft, North Korea has managed to improve the precision and range of weapons.It also deployed 70%of the 1.1 million troops to the scope of 60 miles away from the non -military zone (DMZ), and placed the South Korean capital inside its vision.It is estimated that North Korea may launch 25,000 artillery shells into the Urban (including a US military base) in just 10 minutes.
To be sure, in the overall war of the Korean Peninsula, the US and South Korean troops will have a major technical advantage.But even a brief conflict will cause devastating blows to Seoul.Because Seoul has a population of about 25 million, accounting for half of South Korea's total population, 70%of its GDP (GDP).
In this context, Trump's tries to force South Korea to increase the financial support of the US military in South Korea, which is extremely irresponsible.Although the negotiations of the US -South Korea cost allocation agreement, which has been renewed, is still deadlocked, a new temporary agreement has ended at least 4,000 Korean vacations working in the US factory.However, because South Korea has temporarily undertake the salary cost of these personnel, it is difficult to improve Trump's position in the minds of Koreans.
And the middle of Kim Jong -un, Trump is still threatening Japan and demanding that Japan also increases the fact that the financial support for the US military in its domestic US military.Although Japan is crucial to South Korea's defense, relations between the two countries are not stable.Last year, South Korea threatened to withdraw from a bilateral intelligence sharing agreement, but under the pressure of the United States, South Korea changed its approach.Like South Korea, most Japanese people have no confidence in Trump's way of dealing with international affairs.These factors will inevitably cause diplomatic confusion between the United States, South Korea, and Japan; and all this will benefit Kim Jong -un.
In addition to destroying the United States' alliance in the region, Trump also helped Kim Jong -un a busyness by exacerbating the tension with China.China is no longer inclined to restrain its affiliated country.As China accounted for more than 90%of North Korea's trade, Kim Jong -un has been building a closer relationship with China, which has visited Pyongyang last June.That meeting and other meetings showed that China was neither surprised nor worried about Kim Jong -un's behavior.
This is not to say that Kim Jong -un has been smooth.Due to the failure of US sanctions, limited food production and various reforms, there are huge problems in North Korea.Following a speech at the annual annual meeting of the North Korean Workers' Party in December 2019, Kim Jong -un's public speech in February and April showed that he might focus on domestic priority in the first half of this year.Due to forcibly closing the border with China, the popularity of coronary viruses in 2019 undoubtedly hit North Korea's crumbling economy.In fact, Kim Jong -un has implemented stricter supervision on his previous economic reforms, which shows that more domestic problems may be about to occur.
Regardless of whether there is an economic problem, Kim Jong -un is unlikely to deviate from the script direction that his family has carefully rehearsed.Like the previous performances of his late father and grandfather, his drama will continue to include violent threats, sensational provocations, and even military events that may occur, such as shelling South Korean islands 10 years ago.All signs show that North Korea will adopt more marginal policies.In the long -term staged psychological drama of the Korean Peninsula, the protagonist may be a newcomer, but the plot is still old.
Author Kent Harrington was a senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). He was a national intelligence official, Asian webmaster and public affairs director in East Asia.
English Title: Chairman Kim Goes Back on Script
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020
