Yu Hong
As the coronary epidemic rays globally, China's international environment for promoting the Belt and Road Initiative has changed significantly, and this change will be more obvious after the epidemic is over.In the post -epidemic era, China will become rugged and bumpy in the international promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative.
At the international geopolitical level, the competition between China and the United States has intensified, and the two countries are increasingly fell into a comprehensive confrontation.The United States' prevention and resistance to the Belt and Road Initiative will be further strengthened.The United States determines that China is a strategic competitor. China is using economic strength to promote its regional cooperation initiative and began to challenge the US advantage at the global level.
The United States does not want China to seek greater geopolitical and economic advantages through Belt and Road.The crown disease epidemic has caused severe damage to the United States, leading to a plunge in the US economy, and the domestic unemployment rate has soared to the highest record since the end of World War II.There are more than 120,000 Americans who have died due to crown disease, which is more than the total number of deaths from the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, and the Afghanistan war on terrorism.After the epidemic, the foreign strategy of the United States will seek further de -Sinicization and maximize the dependence of the global industrial chain/supply chain to China.
The United States is mobilizing its powerful state forces to try to persuade the international community, especially its allies to resist the Belt and Road Initiative.Even if the relevant countries are willing to cooperate under the Belt and Road framework with China, they will retain their cooperation with China due to the attitude of the United States.This will inevitably affect the Belt and Road project under construction and will endanger the signing of new project contracts.
Global crown disease and poor response to China's early response have made China's international image more negative.The epidemic is affecting the relationship between China and some countries along the route. Some countries have begun to appear anti -China, such as the Philippines, India, Australia and the Czech Republic.This will have a negative impact on the implementation of the Belt and Road.
Due to the impact of the crown disease epidemic, the world economy's recession in 2020 has become a set, and developed economies and emerging economies will enter the recession simultaneously.In the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in April 2020, it is predicted that the world economy in 2020 will shrink 3%due to a sharp epidemic, which is the first time since the Great Depression in the 1930s.The organization has underwent economic growth forecast again on June 25. It is estimated that the global economy will shrink 4.9%this year.
The epidemic has led to many countries along the route falling into a economic and fiscal crisis.In particular, low -income countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Maldives, Gibi, and Pakistan have a lot of national debt pressure, and the proportion of overall government debt to its domestic GDP exceeds 60%of the cordon.
From the perspective of China's itself, China's economic growth has slowed significantly in the past 10 years, and the annual economic growth rate in 2019 is only 6.2%.The impact of the epidemic led to 6.8%of the economy in the first quarter of 2020, which was the lowest record since the statistical data was announced in 1992.Therefore, Chinese financial institutions must put credit funds in the interior, maintain the domestic economy, and shrink foreign loans.
Before the outbreak, a large number of Chinese engineering technologies and labor personnel who celebrated the Lunar New Year were returned to the Chinese New Year. Due to the travel and entry restrictions implemented by countries along the route, it was impossible to return to the engineering construction site.In addition, the epidemic leads to the interruption of the industrial chain and supply chain of related infrastructure equipment and building materials. Many Belt and Road are under construction. Because it is unable to obtain relevant building materials and construction machinery and equipment supplements, the project has fallen into a pause.
The changes in international geopolitical environment, the slowdown in China's economic growth, and the impact of crown disease on the global economy have caused new resistance and challenges to China's promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative.Facing the changes in the international environment and the raging global crown disease, it is inevitable to shrink the Belt and Road front and adjust its strategy.
The Belt and Road Initiative is under the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and China ’s big diplomatic core position is also an important part of realizing the Chinese dream.Xi Jinping promised at the second Belt and Road summit held in 2019 that it would strengthen communication and negotiation with countries along the route, promote the development of the initiative towards openness, green, and clean directions, and strive to achieve high -quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.The international community is looking forward to the Belt and Road Belt and Road.
China needs to adapt to the post -epidemic era, the new international geopolitical and economic environment, and timely adjust the scale of the initiative and foreign cooperation methods in a timely manner. The following four points are particularly important.
First of all, China needs to retrieve the original intention of promoting the Belt and Road Initiative, and is committed to helping countries along the route to develop infrastructure, and improving the conditions for interconnection between regions, thereby expanding the scale of bilateral economic and trade and convenient personnel, and achieving mutual benefit and win -win results.In the Belt and Road Economics released by the World Bank in 2019: The opportunities and risk reports of the traffic corridor stated that: The Belt and Road Traffic Engineering project can increase the scale of trade along the route by 2.8%to 9.7%.
Second, China should promote the Belt and Road Initiative on the basis of international rules to a greater extent.It is very important to multiply the Belt and Road.This will help reduce the image dominated by the initiative and enhance the confidence of equal participation in the initiative along the country.Multilateralization also helps to share the financing risks of infrastructure projects and promote the Belt and Road in a sustainable manner.
The Belt and Road projects not only need to attract domestic and foreign private enterprises to participate in investment, but also to attract international multilateral financial institutions including the World Bank, European Revival Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, and Asian Infrastructure Investment Banks.This will not only help the project itself transparent, but also help to make a global infrastructure cake together, and accelerate the improvement of regional interconnection conditions.
Third, China needs to change the strategy of spreading large cakes, shrink the Belt and Road front, ensure the construction progress and quality of key projects, and use these projects to build and operate and achieve achievements to win the trust of countries along the route.Pakistan Guadal Port, Sri Lanka Coronapo, Indonesia's Yawan high -speed railway, and Chinese and old railway projects are important projects under construction. It is of great significance for Chinese companies to go out and economic development of countries along the route. Chinese enterprises should well build relevant projects and operations.Come to win reputation.
Greece is the largest cooperative project in China and Greece, and China is also the most successful project in Europe to promote the Belt and Road in Europe.Since the comprehensive management rights of Chinese companies obtained the port in 2016, the container throughput of the port in just a few years has doubled, and it has become one of the busiest ports in the Mediterranean.
The Breyvs Port project has added Greek national taxation and local employment opportunities, and has successfully promoted the development of the area near the region.This has won the favor and support of the Greek government, industry and commerce, workers and media.From the initial questioning of the project in Greece and the international community, the sound of criticism has almost disappeared.Chinese enterprises have won Greece's support for the Belt and Road Initiative with their operating strength and port development performance; Greece has become China's most trusted partner in Europe.
Fourth, the international community looks forward to China as a major debt country, which can give low -income countries for repayment of due debts and interest on maturity, and has more wide range and flexibility.Due to the emergence of the domestic economy and government fiscal crisis, some countries are facing debt repayment difficulties, and the risk of debt defaults is high.
Many countries owed to foreign debts are owed to China in the debt of foreign debts, which are related to the Belt and Road projects.According to the data released by the Institute of Economics of Germany and the Global Development Center in the United States, the proportion of debts owed by Gybiti, Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan accounted for 69.7%, 27.7%, and 22.5%of their domestic GDP, respectively.
As an initiative to actively implement the debt repayment of the Group 20, the poor country's debt repayment, in early June, China announced that 77 developing countries and regions suspended the debt due at the end of 2020.Despite the lack of specific national names and information about the amount of debt due, this attitude obviously has won a lot of applause from the international community in China.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Senior Researcher of East Asia Research Institute
The changes in international geopolitical environment, the slowdown in China's economic growth, and the impact of crown disease on the global economy have caused new resistance and challenges to China's promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative.Facing the changes in the international environment and the worldThe crown disease epidemic is raging, and it is inevitable to shrink the Belt and Road front and adjust its strategy.
