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According to recent reports, some scholars in China believe that the US presidential election will be held in early November this year. Only when the current President Trump is defeated and the Democratic candidate Biden wins, can the continuous worsening and stop loss of Sino -US relations.It is quite interesting, and at the same time, it also shows that the relationship between the United States and China and the United States is still inaccurate.
The situation in the United States this year, before the outbreak of the first crown disease epidemic in March, is more clear and one -sided: the current President Trump, with the principle of priority to the United States, has promoted the continuous economic growth for more than three years.Social issues are decisively responding; internationally, in major areas such as trade, security, and cooperation organizations, we have begun to conscientiously calculate and punish them clearly.In contrast, the disadvantages of Democratic candidates are obvious.
However, in early March, the U.S. epidemic began, which quickly caused a crisis of public health and health, and then declined in economic operation employment.Under this severe situation, the unfortunate incident of the police's death broke out at the end of May, which led to the death of black people's death, which caused a wide range of people to protest or even riots.At present, the challenge of the crown disease epidemic is still severe in many states in the United States, the prospects of economic restart and recovery are still uncertain, and the public protests is basically calm, but the road to some deep -seated problems is complex and long.
That is to say, in 2020, the US election suddenly highlights three variables: the prevention and control of the crown disease, the speed of economic recovery, and social problems.Coronary epidemic prevention and control should be the most critical, because it directly affects the rhythm of the economic recovery and restarting scale, and also dominates the psychological and emotions of the society and the people.At present, in addition to taking as comprehensive prevention and control measures as possible, it depends on whether the research and development test of vaccines can be successful and effective, and it will come out as soon as possible.
Several poll results have also showed that Trump's support has begun to lag behind Biden.However, the victory and defeat of the November election is obviously too early, because these are variables and the target of mobile; it is difficult to say who laughed at the end and who laughed best.
The author believes that in addition to the above variables, looking forward to the results of the 2020 election in the United States, it also depends on the overall trend of society and the macro trend of the times.As the saying goes, the situation is stronger than people, and the situation is stronger than people.What is the macro state of political and economic development in the United States?It may be possible to summarize as a sweeping foam and removing the foam, and return to the ground down to the truth.
Besides, it is more specific that since the decline of President Reagan in the 1980s, President Reagan has become more and more seriously stated into a strange circle that simply emphasizes political correctness, misleading and hindering the sober judgment and effective response to many major issues; and the economy is due to globalization.The excessive force has caused hollow and dependence of key major industrial chains and elements.The foreign strategies and actions during the Cold War also focused on the conflict of counter -terrorism civilization, and the traditional ideological game tended to fade or even ignore it.
In 2016, Trump was killed from oblique stabs with a dark horse. Under the support of most of the United States, he defeated Hillary, who was optimistic about the polls and the media before the election.This fully illustrates a problem, that is, the Trump team has more accurately grasping the pulse and trend of the United States than the Hillary team.Today, four years later, the United States swept the foam and removed the bubble, and returned to the macro direction to realize it. As always, it did not change.This macro -invariant factors are very important.
What role is Sino -US relations in this round of American elections?On the one hand, after all, the US election is based on the topic of domestic political and economic issues, international issues, foreign policies, etc., unless it is during the war, it may play a decisive role.A more vivid example is that Bush won the first Persian Gulf War at that time, but was forced to step down because of the domestic economic stagnation. Later, although Bush did not outstanding achievements, it was still in the second Persian Bay Bay because he was still in the second Persian Bay Bay.During the war, he was fortunate to be successfully re -elected.
On the other hand, the special feature of this round of American elections is that China is difficult to get rid of the problem of crown disease epidemic, and therefore also involves economic development issues; coupled with the recent show of the Chinese and American issues on the issue of Hong Kong and Taiwan,So China will be condemned as the negative character.As for these accusations, it is reasonable or blame the pot, it must be understood and judged by hundreds of millions of voters in the United States.
The author is an expert in international cultural strategic research and consultation in the United States
