Lin Yuan: The ease of South Korea -DPRK relations in deterioration seems to be ending

Current affairs perspective

On the afternoon of June 16, North Korea fried in the Kaicheng Industrial Park, South Korea and DPRK jointly liaison firms.This incident reflects that North Korea and South Korea's relations are still in the process of continuous deterioration, and the alleviating situation of the Korean Peninsula since 2018 will seem to end.Earlier, the South Korean President Moon Jae -in -Yin Gang delivered a speech on the 20th anniversary of the 20th anniversary of the signing of the 20th Declaration of the 15, while North Korea faced him with actual actions.

So far, North Korea has been unable to break the deadlock on nuclear guidance, as well as the deadlock in North Korea and the United States, and North Korea and South Korea.North Korea thought about opening the breakthrough from Wen Zaiyin, and seemed to have made progress, but even if he adopted a specific strategy, he finally did not achieve its goal.

At present, North Korea officials not only hate the conservative camp of South Korea, but also are quite dissatisfied and disappointed with the Wen Zaiyin government, including their aestheticism.Economic exchanges and cooperation between North Korea and South Korea have not been carried out, but military exercises are continuously held in the southern Peninsula, coupled with South Korea's continued purchase of American weapons and equipment, etc. All these North Korea are remembered in their hearts.

The accumulated dissatisfaction and disappointment, the anti -outfield leaflets, who had blaspheme the highest dignity during the epidemic, finally broke out.On June 13, Kim Heye, the first deputy minister of the North Korean Workers' Party, pointed out that it is now a time with South Korea.It was also the sister Kim Jong -un. In February 2018, he visited South Korea by the opening of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. At that time, he had a gentle and polite impression.However, at present, she intends to give South Korea and the world another impression mdash; mdash; tough for Korean is no longer a pigeon.

It should also be mentioned that on May 24th, the Fourth Expansion Meeting of the Seventh Central Military Commission of the North Korean Workers' Party proposed a new policy, that is, North Korea should further consolidate the national nuclear war, maintain a high mobilization state, and operate strategic armed forces.This is obviously inconsistently inconsistent with the new strategic route of all forces proposed by the Labor Party's concentration of all forces at the Third Plenary Session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Central Committee of April 2018.After the Kim Jong -un regime publicly announced this new policy, it was unexpected that relations with South Korea and even the United States have deteriorated.

North Korea bombarded the South Korea -DPRK liaison firm, and wanted to express strong dissatisfaction with South Korea, the reason should even include the opening of the liaison firm that failed to lead to the restoration of the Kaicheng Industrial Park.It should also be pointed out that the Korean spearhead is mainly aimed at the Wen Zaiyin government of the progressive camp, not a conservative camp.This should be regarded as its pressure on South Korea's politicians. In the future, North Korea will have to fight with South Korea.In addition, North Korea is also indirectly putting pressure on the United States. If the pressure effect is not ideal, North Korea will continue to promote the implementation of the new policy.

North Korea should conduct an assessment in advance, and believes that no matter the United States or South Korea, it will not bombard the co -connection office of South Korea and the North Korea and take tough countermeasures.Wen Zaiyin stood on the basic position of the progressive camp, and was unwilling to see that the relationship between South Korea and North Korea was completely ruptured.However, South Korea ’s Qingwatai criticized Kim and Kim with the rude words before June 17, and said that he would not tolerate the words that the DPRK did not discern.It seems that Wen Zaiyin, especially the recent words and deeds, is a bit unbearable to North Korea, especially Jin and Zheng's recent words and deeds.However, there is almost no doubt that South Korea will not adopt hostile operations to the DPRK in the future.

At present, in the face of serious domestic crown diseases, increasing racial contradictions, and uncertain economic prospects, it is difficult to take major actions on the Korean Peninsula, even if the South Korean contact office is blown up.North Korea will evaluate the possibility of Trump's re -election as the US president, and if the Democratic Party is in charge of the White House, the US policy will be tougher.North Korea's recent movements will also be based on its specific evaluation.

Some Korean media pointed out that the South Korean and North Korean joint contact firm was blown up, marking the Banmen Store declaration signed by Wen Zaiyin and Kim Jong -un on April 27, 2018, and the firm was established based on the Banmen Store Declaration.

However, the Panmunjom Declaration is not only conducive to South Korea, and it is not harmful to North Korea.Therefore, claiming that the Banmen Store Declaration has been a bit early, even if some terms have lost meaning, after all, this was signed by Kim Jong -un. At that time, he also believed that the declaration reflected the consistent aspirations and requirements of the Korean nation.

It is necessary to point out that even if the northern parties in South Korea have distributed anti -North Korea leaflets, even if North Korea's highest level is very angry about this, the current situation has not deteriorated to North Korea to take specific military operations in South Korea.In this way, the Fifth Meeting of the Seventh Central Military Commission of the Labor Party made a decision to retain the Southern Military Action Plan for the Ministry of Staff of the Korean People's Army on the Southern Military Action Plan.The so -called reservation means that it is not implemented for the time being, but it has not completely given up.

At present, it is difficult to see that relations between North Korea and South Korea will have a relaxation in the near future.In the past, South Korea has not been able to do it, such as carrying out substantial economic cooperation with North Korea, it is difficult to do it in the future.The coronal epidemic will definitely have a negative impact on North Korea's relatively fragile economy, and make Pyongyang unable to start from North Korea's economic cooperation.

In this case, North Korea's adopting certain rotation as a rotation is not incomprehensible.However, it should be pointed out that the situation on the Korean Peninsula will not deteriorate in line, but it will be stable after worsening, and it will deteriorate again.The North Korea should still have specific actions in the future, but the possibility that happened in the near future is not great.

The author is a doctor of history, scholar travel